From discounters to department stores, the nation's retailers reported bleak November sales yesterday, raising doubts about holiday sales prospects.
Sales at stores open for more than a year rose 1.7 percent, compared with a 3.7 percent gain in 2003, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group that tracks 70 chain stores. As a result, the council lowered its holiday forecast, predicting sales will grow between 2.5 and 3 percent, rather than between 3 and 4 percent.
"This is a worry," said Michael P. Niemira, ICSC's chief economist. "Retailers have no cushion to fall back on this year if December turns out to be a poor month."
But bad news for retailers could mean good new for consumers. Industry experts predict that in an effort to boost December sales, retailers will scramble to cut prices. And yesterday, after reporting what it described as disappointing November sales results, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it would discount two dozen popular products beginning today and would aggressively advertise those markdowns in radio, newspapers and on television.
Analysts blamed the weak showing in November, in part, on retailers' attempts to resist discounting and on consumers' unwillingness to pay full price.
For retailers, it was the second-worst November performance in a decade. In 2002, chain stores reported flat November sales and went on to post dismal overall holiday results, with sales up just 0.5 percent.
But retail executives and industry analysts pointed out that there are two more shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than there were last year, which may mean shoppers simply got off to a slow start.
The National Retail Federation, which is predicting holiday sales will jump 4.5 percent this year, stood by its forecast yesterday, saying it was too early to write off the entire November-December shopping period.
"We think the holiday season will be decided, again, at the last minute," said federation spokeswoman Ellen Tolley.
A federation-sponsored survey of 4,670 consumers, released this week, showed that only one in 12 had completed their holiday purchases.
