In a worst-case scenario quietly presented last month by a joint CIA-FBI agency that analyzes intelligence, al Qaeda would use weapons of mass destruction to launch multiple simultaneous attacks on the United States and overwhelm the U.S. government.
It was an extreme possibility on a menu of unknowns that had less-threatening options. All 535 members of Congress continued to work as usual until this week, when Sen. Mark Dayton (D-Minn.) shut his offices, sent his staff home and cautioned people against visiting Capitol Hill.
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The surprising response by the freshman senator from Minnesota to the latest in a series of warnings prompted ridicule and a flurry of angry reactions yesterday. Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) said Dayton's decision was "ill-informed." Minnesota's senior senator, Norm Coleman (R), called Dayton reckless. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) compared him to the boy who cried wolf. Colleagues on both sides of the aisle whispered "paranoid."
The seat of the nation's government has been menaced by repeated threats and dangers -- shootings, anthrax, Code Orange alerts and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. There have been repeated security briefings from federal authorities about various and unspecific threats. But no member of Congress had fled, until Tuesday evening.
Dayton, who along with his colleagues began a preelection recess this week, was unrepentant yesterday. "I would not advise someone to visit Capitol Hill between now and the election, out of extreme precaution," Dayton said in an interview. "I would not bring my two sons to Capitol Hill between now and the election."
Dayton defended his decision, saying it would be immoral to expose his staff to risks that he himself would not be taking because of the recess. "I still believe in my soul I made the necessary and wise decision to protect my staff and constituents who might visit my office," he said.
His action came in response to a series of recent briefings given to senators on Capitol Hill by the Terrorist Threat Integration Center, a joint CIA-FBI agency that performs intelligence analysis. As part of the briefings, officials presented the alarming al Qaeda scenario, according to a U.S. government official who did not want to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
"This scenario was way over the top," said the official, who described it as "fire and brimstone raining down from the skies" and "the continental U.S. up in smoke." Other government agencies, including the Homeland Security Department, had asked the joint agency to place this extreme scenario in context when describing less scary possibilities, the official said.
Dayton's reaction to the extreme possibility was ridiculous, D.C. Police Chief Charles H. Ramsey said.
"It's not based on any credible information that's come in. Nobody knows why he is doing what he is doing," Ramsey said. "It doesn't take a brain surgeon to think that the White House and the Capitol are targets. But there is no credible information about planned attacks -- nothing to set off the reaction we saw."
Rep. Robert W. Ney (R-Ohio), chairman of the House administration committee that oversees House security officials, reiterated that there was no new information to support the extreme scenario. In fact, two law enforcement officials, who declined to be identified because they were discussing classified information, said some recent intelligence indicates that the preelection threat might be lessening.
"One could generally say, 'Don't ever come to Washington for the next 10 years,' " Ney said. "One could generally say, 'Don't come to New York, L.A., Washington or Chicago for the next five years.' "
Yesterday, the corridor outside Dayton's third-floor suite in the Russell Senate Office Building was a lonely stretch of marble, with only the stray passerby stopping to read Dayton's statement on the front door that the office was closed, thanks to a recent "top-secret intelligence report."
Across the hall, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) poked fun at his neighbor.