Jiang Puts Hard Line To the Test In China

Jiang also held a series of meetings with local officials, academics and businessmen in Shenzhen, located just across the border from Hong Kong, to discuss growing demands for direct elections in the former British colony. During the meetings, party sources said, Jiang outlined a firm response by Beijing and referred to a statement by Deng that "patriots must form the main body" of Hong Kong's leaders.

Days later, according to a senior editor at a party newspaper, the central propaganda department in Beijing called a meeting of state media executives and ordered them to prepare a series of reports highlighting Deng's statement. Vice President Zeng Qinghong, Jiang's most senior aide and his favored candidate to replace Hu, addressed the meeting by telephone and personally delivered instructions, the editor said.

The articles, which appeared on the front page of all major party newspapers, were followed by attacks on pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong as unpatriotic and on U.S. and British support for them as interference in China's internal affairs. Then, in March and April, the Chinese government ruled out elections to choose Hong Kong's next chief executive in 2007 and its entire legislature in 2008.

The decision marked a sharp change in strategy by Beijing, which had adopted a softer line after the July demonstrations and allowed the withdrawal of the strict anti-subversion bill that sparked the protests. Zeng orchestrated the policy shift after assuming control of a new senior leadership committee on Hong Kong affairs, the sources said.

"They're afraid of democracy in Hong Kong," said a person who met with Jiang in Guangdong. "They're afraid if people in the mainland see that Hong Kong can elect its own leaders, they will begin to ask why they can't do the same."

In the past month, three popular radio talk-show hosts in Hong Kong critical of Beijing quit their jobs after receiving threats that they alleged were authorized by the Chinese government.

Several officials acknowledged that Beijing's tough policies in Hong Kong could prompt a backlash. Democracy advocates are organizing another mass demonstration there on July 1, the anniversary of last year's march and the territory's 1997 return to Chinese rule. They are also campaigning to win a majority in legislative elections in September, which they could use to block government legislation and try to force Beijing to compromise on political reform.

But the government official with access to the leadership said such a setback in Hong Kong might not hurt Jiang and his allies. "Even if tough policies produce bad results, you won't be blamed," he said. "But you can always be blamed for being soft, regardless of the results."

He and other sources said Jiang has sought to use the sense of crisis surrounding Hong Kong and Taiwan to bolster his bid to stay on as chairman of the Central Military Commission. Deng stepped down as head of China's military two years after giving up his other posts, and some party elders have called on Jiang to do the same, which would mean retiring late this year, the sources said.

But a party official said that in meetings held during the annual session of the National People's Congress, the Chinese legislature, Jiang argued that he should retain control of the military. In one meeting, the official said, Jiang stunned participants by quoting an ancient Chinese historian's observation that transfers of political power are often accompanied by bloodshed.

Newspapers and magazines controlled by the military have been praising Jiang's role in modernizing the People's Liberation Army and highlighting the risk of war with Taiwan. One magazine published an article discussing strategies that Chinese troops might employ in the event that the United States used nuclear weapons in such a conflict.

State media have also highlighted a proposal to adopt legislation that would write into law the government's threat to attack Taiwan if the island formally declares independence. "The more tense the situation is, the easier it is for Jiang to justify that he should stay in office," said the editor at the party newspaper.

Hu has been careful not to confront Jiang, party sources said, and instead has accepted his criticism, sometimes expressed in letters. In some cases, the sources said, Hu has reversed himself after Jiang objected to a decision.

But Hu has also been steadily appointing allies to fill provincial and municipal posts across the country. And in repeated appearances with impoverished workers and farmers, he and Wen have distinguished themselves from Jiang and won support from a broad cross section of society.