Iraq: Reconstruction Roadblocks

As the calendar nears the scheduled June 30 handover of power in Iraq from the U.S. occupation forces to an Iraqi entity, stability is an ever present question. Monday the current president of the Iraqi Governing Council, Izzedine Salim, was killed when a car bomb exploded outside the headquarters of the U.S.-led occupation authority in Baghdad; a Shiite uprising in southern Iraq that engaged U.S. forces again Saturday is presenting U.S. officials with a serious political challenge; and the Iraqi prison abuse scandal looms large above other U.S.-led initiatives.

Bathsheba Crocker, fellow and co-director of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was online Monday, May 17 at 1 p.m. ET, to discuss the Salim assassination and the status of post-war reconstruction.

Crocker is a fellow and codirector of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at CSIS. From 2002 to 2003, she was a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, working on post-conflict reconstruction issues at CSIS. She was a member of a CSIS-led reconstruction assessment team that went to Iraq in July 2003 at the request of the U.S. Department of Defense. Before joining CSIS, Ms. Crocker most recently worked as an attorney-adviser in the Legal Adviser's Office at the U.S. Department of State, where she focused on foreign assistance, appropriations law, and economic sanctions issues.

A transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Montreal, Quebec: In light of Mr. Salim's assasination, the question of "security first, sovereignty after" gets back to the front page. These two objectives seem caught in an unending loop, one being needed to feed the other. What is your opinion regarding the handling and achieving of these two intertwined objectives?

Bathsheba Crocker: This is a good question to open the discussion. Unfortunately, as with so many things related to Iraq, it doesn't have an easy answer. Security and the issue of Iraqi sovereignty are intertwined, as you note. At this point, we are no longer talking about security being established before sovereignty is transferred. Despite today's killing of Mr. Saleem, the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority is on track to transfer "sovereignty" to an Iraqi interim governing body on June 30. Security will continue to be a major problem even after that date, and the U.S. will continue to play the predominant role in trying to establish security.

The key missing ingredient so far has been Iraqi public buy-in, to the plans for their future. In part, because of communications failures, they are largely ignorant of those plans. In part, those plans are continuing to develop right before our eyes, through the work of the UN's envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. But unless the majority of Iraqis (the so-called silent majority) buys into the transfer of sovereignty and political transition plans and starts to take ownership and responsibility for what happens in Iraq, we are likely to continue to see events like today's. That will require the U.S. and UN (ideally working with Iraqis) to come up with a viable plan and sell that plan to the Iraqi people. But it will also continue to require the U.S. to do whatever is necessary to establish security. Without that piece, nothing else can flow.

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Washington, D.C.: What does the death of the Iraqi Governing Council president mean to the future of the new government?

Bathsheba Crocker: Mr. Saleem's death complicates an already complicated situation. It illustrates, again, the fragile security situation and the dangers of being seen as working with the coalition. For now, the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority is saying plans to transfer sovereignty on June 30 remain on track (although we don't yet know what those plans are). I don't know whether UN envoy Brahimi was thinking of Mr. Saleem as a potential member in the new Iraqi interim authority.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Stalin once famously asked, "how many divisions has the Pope?" and it strikes me that the same question can be asked about Ayatollah al-Sistani. Are we entering a phase where the winners in Iraq are going to be the Iraqi movements that can mobilize the largest private militias? And do you think there is any chance that an Iraqi government working with the U.S. after June 30 can build a loyal army that curbs the militias effectively, or is the U.S. connection so politically radioactive that Iraqi politicians working with the U.S. can't stabilize the country because there is too much nationalist and Islamist opposition to their U.S. ties?

Bathsheba Crocker: You raise an important question about the plethora of independent militias in Iraq. They are a very worrisome factor, and all of them could pose a destabilizing threat to the political transition process. I think the U.S. should have dealt with the Iraqi militias from the outset; the delay in doing so makes it more difficult to accomplish their demobilization and possible integration into legitimate security institutions, or reintegration into civilian society. It also means the militias have had a full year to get better organized, more funding, more training, more arms, etc. The only hope for dealing with the militias rests in:
(1) Dealing with them all equivalently. No militia leader is going to agree to disband unless others are being asked to do so.
(2) Ensuring security so that militias don't have the legitimate argument that they are needed to ensure security in their areas.
(3) Opening up the political process in Iraq so that militia leaders and members begin to feel that participation in the political process is a more viable means for their survival than violence.

The U.S. is certainly a charged element in Iraq right now, but if the above measures are considered a baseline, we might still have some success in dealing with the militias. It is critical that we do so.

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Atlanta, Ga.: A simple question that I haven't seen answered anywhere: Why were these Iraqi prisoners being tortured? What did they hope to find out from them? It's not hard to imagine that we wanted to find out where the WMD's were hiding...and when they wouldn't tell us (since there was nothing to tell) the abuse grew worse. Under World Court rules, do these prisoners have any recourse against the U.S?

Bathsheba Crocker: It's not such a simple question really. I assume the answer is that the interrogators are seeking information on the ongoing insurgency and terrorist activities in Iraq from the prisoners. In certain cases (the so-called "high value prisoners"--former high ranking regime members), they are also probably seeking information about WMD and war crimes.

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Virginia: Sarin gas has been found in a bomb near Baghdad. Is this to be considered the discovery of WMDs?

Bathsheba Crocker: We don't yet have much information about this discovery. It's too early to say whether it came from Iraq or was brought in from outside, who used it, etc. So it's not yet being considered the discovery of WMD.

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Alexandria, Va.: When the June 30 deadline comes, who will be left in Iraq? What will there be less of?

Bathsheba Crocker: The plans for June 30 remain fluid. A few things are known though. The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) will shut its doors on June 30. Ambassador Bremer, among other CPA members, will leave Iraq, but many CPA employees will remain and become part of the new U.S. embassy that will open its doors on July 1. The plans call for a several thousand person embassy, of which somewhere more than 1,000 will be Americans and the rest Iraqis. So there may be slightly fewer U.S. civilians working for the federal government.

The number of U.S. private contractors will stay the same and probably actually grow significantly as more and more of the $18.6 billion in U.S. reconstruction funds is spent.

The 135,000 U.S. troops and the other coalition troops will remain in Iraq after June 30 and will continue to have primary responsibility for security/military matters.

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Abuja, Nigeria: Can there be an end to the situational violence in Iraq as the head of governing council died amidst uncertainties, can the U.S. policy bring an end to the uprisings?

Bathsheba Crocker: It's difficult if not impossible to predict whether the U.S. will ultimately be successful in ending the uprisings/insurgency in Iraq. Last week on Capitol Hill, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Richard Myers said the U.S. could neither lose nor win militarily in Iraq. That statement could mean a number of different things. As a purely military matter, the U.S. can probably take on whatever threats exist in Iraq, but the level of recruits for the insurgency cause could continue to rise, meaning their ranks are easily replenished.

Further, there is ultimately no military solution to this problem, even if the U.S. faces a military threat in Iraq. The ultimate solutions rest in politics and the economy. Until Iraqis start to feel their lives have improved (through jobs, basic services) and that they have a stake in their political future, violence will be an acceptable alternative.

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Slough, U.K.: What happens if the Iraqi government asks all coalition forces, and all coalition-related agencies and contractors, to vacate Iraq in the shortest possible delay after June 30?

Bathsheba Crocker: I'm not sure we know the answer to that question yet. After competing versions of an answer last week, Secretary of State Powell finally came out with the clarification that U.S. forces would leave if asked to do so by the Iraqi interim government. I assume the same answer would apply to contractors, etc. There may still be some confusion in U.S. government thinking, though. I assume the CPA and the UN will try to work this kind of question out with the interim governing body during the month of June, in the lead-up to the transfer of sovereignty.

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Orange, Calif.: I have seen articles that indicate the coalition is passing many laws to ensure U.S. control after the passing of sovereignty with the understanding the new government would not have the ability to change any existing laws without U.S. approval.

Bathsheba Crocker: The legal situation remains very murky. The CPA has passed many laws, some of which do things like create oversight commissions (or an independent media commission) whose members have 5 year terms, and thus will last even beyond the election of a permanent Iraqi government.

What is not clear, though, is what effect CPA issued edicts and laws will continue to have after the June 30 transfer. I expect this is one of many thorny issues that UN Security Council members will attempt to hash out before passing a new resolution.

The U.S. (and the UN's special envoy) have both so far suggested that the interim Iraqi governing body -- which will remain in power until an elected transitional government comes into power next January -- will not have the authority to pass laws. This would likely mean it couldn't abrogate CPA-issued decisions. But none of this has been finalized.

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Lyme, Conn.: Are you concerned the Bush administration will use the assassination of Council President Salim as an excuse to extend the June deadline for establishing a new Iraqi government? Indeed, do you believe this deadline remains realistic?

Bathsheba Crocker: I don't think the Administration is considering delaying the June 30 deadline. In fact, the first thing that US and British officials said today about the assassination was essentially that it won't change or delay plans for the transfer of sovereignty.

I have always been concerned about whether June 30 is a viable date, but for better or worse, it seems to be sticking. It's an arbitrary date, set mostly because of domestic political realities here in the U.S., and we are not at all prepared for the transfer yet, on numerous levels.

Nonetheless, it is clearly important that we continue to move toward transferring sovereignty to the Iraqis, and they are now expecting that to happen on June 30. The most important issue is deciding soon on what the new government will look like and what its powers will be, so Iraqi officials, working with the UN, can start explaining and publicizing the plan to the Iraqi public.

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Bethesda, Md.:
This all seems like a lot to come together. There are so many forces going on in the country and none of them agree what the government should be. Add to that the resentment of the U.S. plan, so how can the new government have much of a chance of succeeding.

Bathsheba Crocker: That's a very good question, and one that troubles me greatly. The idea of involving the UN in coming up with a plan was directly related to the delayed acknowledgement by U.S. officials that the U.S. lacks the credibility/legitimacy to come up with a plan on our own. The real question is whether anyone short of a miracle worker can come up with a viable plan before June 30 that covers all the issues we've been discussing and that includes as members people the Iraqis will see as legitimate.

It is this last point that is most troubling and difficult. How to appoint a new government and sell it to the Iraqi people so that they accept it and view it as legitimate? Arguably, nothing short of elections could accomplish that goal, but there is no possibility of holding elections between now and June 30.

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Washington, D.C.: Hello,
Is it really true that, in Fallujah, the Pentagon handed power over to a regime that won't cooperate with them, or is there more to it than just that? Thanks

Bathsheba Crocker: In Fallujah, the U.S. military established a security force made up of former members of Iraq's army to police the streets and maintain security. There is a lot of concern about whether members of that force will actually work toward the U.S. goals. Many of them were the same insurgents who have been fighting against the U.S. marines in Fallujah. There is also concern about the symbolism: Iraqis in other parts of the country are concerned about what they view as a "re-Baathification" of Iraq. There is also concern that Fallujans and others in that region of the country view this as a defeat of the U.S. military, as they ended up retreating from many of their goals, such as capturing and punishing the people who killed/mutilated the 4 American contractors and collecting all of the heavy weapons in Fallujah.

For now, though, the city has been relatively quiet, and the marines have successfully done joint patrols with the new Iraqi force.

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Washington, D.C.: What was Salim's business in the Green Zone this morning?

We've heard all weekend that the U.S. forces would leave if asked. I was just wondering if the Governing Council head was on his way to a special meeting with Paul Bremer.

Bathsheba Crocker: I don't know exactly, but what I hear from news reports is that there is a weekly meeting on Mondays among Governing Council members, and that he was headed to that meeting. Other GC members also entered the Green Zone this morning, in fact Adnan Pachachi apparently went through that checkpoint only seconds before Saleem attempted to.

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Richmond, Va.: There is no proof that the prisoners were "tortured." Humiliated and intimidated, yes ... but don't bring up the charge without proof.

Bathsheba Crocker: I am responding to this only so that it is posted;it is a response to an earlier question that I answered. I agree with this writer that we don't know the facts yet so shouldn't refer to the abuses as torture, although we do know, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross, that the treatment of prisoners violated the Geneva Conventions.

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Washington, D.C.: Are elections still on track? Who will administer the elections and provide the people and infrastructure for such a large (and dangerous) effort?

Bathsheba Crocker: For now, elections are still on track, but the head of the UN elections body has warned that the current security situation may force the delay of elections. For now, the idea is elections will be held no later than the end of January 2005. In order for that to happen, the UN has said there must be an Iraqi electoral commission and electoral laws in place no later than the end of May 2004. We are obviously nearing that date, and the security problems are hampering efforts to form an electoral commission, at least in certain parts of the country.

The current plan is for the UN to oversee the process of elections in Iraq.

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Mumbai India: Ms. Crocker,

What will be the status of the civilian workers in Iraq after June 30th? Will they be subject to Iragi laws and prosecution? If they hurt someone could they be jailed?

Bathsheba Crocker: This is another one of those unknowns at this point. Ambassador Bremer has passed laws protecting U.S. soldiers, civilians, and contractors from being subject to Iraqi laws and prosecution. But the status of those laws post-June 30 is murky. This, again, is something the U.S. will have to hammer out as part of the negotiations on the next UN Security Council resolution.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: Will there or has there been a new "leader" anointed now that the previous leader is dead?

Bathsheba Crocker: The Governing Council agreed to appoint Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer, another GC member who is from the north of Iraq, to serve as the President of the GC until June 30.

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Northern Virginia: Ms. Crocker,

You state that Iraqis "are largely ignorant" to the U.S.'s "plans for their future." "In part, because of communications failures," eh? I disagree categorically with your argument. The reason why a preponderant Iraqi population are demanding immediate removal
of U.S. military personnel IS due to the fact that they KNOW that the so-called "handover of sovereignty" really means for them -- more of the same U.S. government-controlled occupation. As to communications, there shouldn't be a problem. The White House and Defense Department have exported hundreds of writers, marketeers, PR people to feed "the Right Message" to the international media. Obviously, they have not "sold" the Iraqi people, nor the Middle East region on this "plan". Your response, please?

Bathsheba Crocker: The efforts so far, by DOD and the White House and the CPA, on the communications front have been a categorical failure. Many have been sent over there, but none have so far been successful in establishing a means of communicating messages to the Iraqi people that resonates. That's what I mean by a communications failure.

You are right to point out that many Iraqis might be less than pleased to discover what June 30 will really mean in terms of changes to their daily lives, but it is nonetheless true that most Iraqis do not have a good grasp of the political transition plans. Of course, in part that has to do with the fact that the plans are still being discussed and changed as we hold this discussion.

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Montreal, Quebec: I know that hindsight is always 20/20, but the current events in Iraq do seem like they could have been generally anticipated before the initiation of last year's conflict. What were the initial plans of the Bush administration for the reconstruction of Iraq and how have far we now deviated from those initial plans?

Bathsheba Crocker: The failure to plan adequately for the postwar phase in Iraq has been well documented. It is obviously true that good plans would not have anticipated every possible eventuality in Iraq, and that even with good planning and preparation, we would have faced problems, including violence against U.S. forces. But many of the problems we have seen since last spring can be traced to the failure to adequately prepare for the post-combat period in Iraq.

We have seen many shifts in plans since then. The political transition process is only one example: the plans on that front have changed about 5 times already, only adding to the confused and fragile situation on the ground in Iraq.

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Canada: If American contractors, soldiers, civilians, etc., are living and working in Iraq, how can Bremer pass a "law" that makes them exempt from Iraqi laws and prosecution. Can the U.S. simply pass laws to exempt themselves in any jurisdiction ... like Canada?

Bathsheba Crocker: The difference is that the U.S. is the recognized occupying power in Iraq. That is not the case in, say, Canada.

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Bathsheba Crocker: Thank you all for your challenging, interesting, and broad-ranging questions. I am sorry to leave so many questions unanswered, but they at least show the level of continuing interest and concern among the U.S. public on these important issues.

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