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Kerry Has Strong Advantage Among Latino Voters

Paul Rivera, senior political adviser for the Kerry-Edwards campaign, agreed on the significance of how Latinos vote in November. "Our goal is to exceed the Clinton-Gore number from 1996, which was 72 percent," he said, adding that the campaign hopes not only for a record percentage but also a record turnout among Hispanics.

Each campaign has spent about $1 million on Spanish-language television ads this year. For Kerry, that represents more than Al Gore spent throughout his 2000 campaign and for Bush it is about half of his 2000 total.

John F. Kerry greets New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at the National Hispanic Cultural Center. (Jake Schoellkopf -- AP)

_____Latino Poll_____
Poll Data: Post/Univision/TRPI Election Survey of Registered Latino Voters (PDF)
Graphic: Details of Latino Poll Results
Survey Methodology
_____Related Links_____
From TRPI: A Glimpse Into Latino Policy and Voting Preferences (PDF)
Kerry Courts Minority Voters (The Washington Post, Jul 13, 2004)
Kerry Makes an Appeal to Blacks and Hispanics (The Washington Post, Jun 30, 2004)
Kerry: Bush Has Neglected Latin America (The Washington Post, Jun 27, 2004)
Latinos Express Election Concern (The Washington Post, Jun 26, 2004)
Bush Proposes Legal Status for Immigrant Labor (The Washington Post, Jan 8, 2004)
New GOP Caucus Races After Latinos (The Washington Post, Jun 16, 2003)
Sign of Times for GOP: Spanish Spoken Here (The Washington Post, Jun 9, 2003)
Battle Emerges Over Latino Votes (The Washington Post, Jul 10, 2002)

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Kerry officials unveiled a new Spanish-language ad yesterday called "Faith," in which the candidate promises an immigration plan during his first 100 days in office. The most recent Bush ad aimed at Latinos, called "Priorities," began airing about a week ago. It criticizes Kerry for missing major Senate votes.

Neither campaign, however, is close to its ultimate vote goals, the survey found. Fewer than half of all Latinos say Kerry is reaching out to them and their community -- and a similar proportion say the same about Bush.

Democrats currently have greater appeal to Hispanics, with half saying they believe Democrats have more concern for their community, compared with 14 percent who cited the Republicans. But on some key measures, Bush is more popular among Latinos than his party is, and a majority view him as likable.

In the poll, 36 percent of Latinos said they approved of the job Bush is doing as president, while 54 percent disapproved. On some specific areas of performance, Bush was judged even more harshly. Six in 10 Hispanic voters disapproved of the way he is dealing with the economy and the situation in Iraq, while somewhat fewer disapproved of the way he is handling immigration issues. They divided over Bush's performance on education.

"Bush is wrong on Iraq," said Maria Cerda, 42, of the Bronx, who is from the Dominican Republic and cleans offices for a living. "There are a lot of young people dying over there. Education and better jobs is what we need. Not war."

Cerda sees Bush as a "weak leader -- people are always telling him what to do." Her opinion of Kerry is only slightly better. "He doesn't seem that strong to me, either, but he's better than Bush."

The area in which Bush received majority support was on his handling of terrorism, on which 54 percent of Hispanics said he had been doing a good job. Six in 10 said they believed Bush was a "strong leader," a trait that has been one of the president's strengths nationally.

Yet even on the war on terrorism, these Latino voters said they preferred Kerry to Bush -- by a modest ratio of 43 percent to 35 percent. A similar proportion favored Kerry to Bush in dealing with Iraq. By larger margins, the Massachusetts senator was viewed as superior to Bush on the economy -- where Kerry had a 25 percentage-point advantage -- immigration (20 points) and education (24 points).

Kerry also was viewed as more caring and, by a smaller margin, better able to handle crises than Bush. On none of the key measures of presidential character or personality was Bush judged to be superior to his Democratic challenger, an advantage Kerry holds even though about one in four Latinos said they did not know enough about him to judge.

"I am with the Democrat Kerry," said Maria Medina, 44, a Mexican American who lives in Chicago and works as a kitchen manager in the Cook County jail. "The economy is not in good shape. I am disappointed in the way [Bush] is leading the country."

She said she knows little about Kerry. But she voted Democratic four years ago -- her first election as a U.S. citizen -- and is likely to do so again. "Democrats understand people with needs. Republicans are for people with no needs."

Fifty-three percent -- said Kerry understood the problems "of people like you," while 37 percent held a similar view of Bush.

A slight majority -- 53 percent -- said Kerry "can be trusted in a crisis"; 47 percent said they trusted Bush. Six in 10 did say Bush had a "likable" personality, but a slightly larger share (69 percent) said Kerry was likable, too.

Latino voters are far from a monolithic voting bloc. Cuban Americans have long stood out for their attachment to the GOP, and in this survey, three in four give Bush a positive job-approval rating, and a similar percentage say they plan to back him in the fall.

They also are twice as likely as Mexican Americans or Puerto Ricans to say the economy is improving, and four times as likely to base their voting decision on terrorism rather than domestic issues. By a large majority, they support the war in Iraq.

All this could make for another close race in Florida, where Cuban Americans voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000, prompting some community leaders to claim credit for electing Bush president. The survey suggests Cuban Americans in the Sunshine State once again could provide Bush a major boost, and the poll showed him leading Kerry by a wide margin among Hispanics there.

"I'll probably vote for Bush," said Ricardo Aguilar, 38, a Cuban American who owns a commercial photography studio in Orlando. While he has reservations about Bush, he views Kerry as a "flip-flopper." Said Aguilar, "He says, 'Life begins at conception, but I'm for abortion. I voted for the war, but I don't want to fund it.' Huh? He tells me he's going to make 5 million jobs, but doesn't tell me how."

Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.

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