"It's going to take us three years to get to a more normal pattern," he said.
He primarily credits the area's job growth -- 80,500 new jobs were created in this area in the 12 months ended in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. More new jobs were created in the Washington metropolitan region than any other metro region in the country. Many of those jobs were related to increased government spending.
To accommodate that job growth, the area needs at least 40,000 new units of housing a year, Fuller said, a demand that isn't being met. He predicts a deficit of 218,000 housing units for the area by 2025.
"We're pumping people into this region to fill these jobs," Fuller said. "I can't see any reason why the market would slow down."
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, disagrees, arguing instead that the market has been fueled primarily by low interest rates.
"There's been very little relationship between jobs and housing over the past five years," Zandi said. "The key here is not jobs; it's interest rates."
Zandi predicted home prices in this area could fall because of weakening demand when interest rates go up. "When rates rise, buyers will no longer be able to afford the prices," he said.
Zandi predicts that if mortgage rates rise to 7 percent, prices will go flat to down a couple percentage points here; if they rise to 8 percent, the area could see a correction of 5 percent to 10 percent from peak to trough, he said.
"Ironically, it may be just those jobs that cause interest rates to rise," he said. "The economy gets better, the job market gets stronger, interest rates rise. To count on more jobs to bail out a juiced-up housing market is wrong."
Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, says this slowdown is the beginning of a downturn in the market.
"I wouldn't call it the collapse yet," Baker said. "But there's definitely a softening. You're starting to see the first step now. I'm very confident that there will be a big downturn when there's a turn in interest rates. My expectation is that when we get higher mortgage rates, which will be in the not-too-distant future, there will be a sharp fall in prices."
All this talk of past peaks in the market weighs heavily on Douglas Vibert's mind. On the one hand, he's happy he and his wife managed to beat seven other contracts for a three-bedroom townhouse in Springfield recently. But still, he is worried.
"For nice properties, the market is still hot," Vibert said. "At the open houses for the cruddy ones that were priced the same, people would see the price and just say, 'forget it' and walk out. But ours was nice, so a lot of people wanted it."
The townhouse was on the market for $319,000. Because of the multiple bids, the Viberts paid $326,000.
"It was the highest price that any townhouse had ever sold for in that development," Vibert said.
And how does that make him feel?
"Really not good at all," he said.
