Courting the Dragon

The Australianreported Monday that the reliably pro-American government in Canberra is now going out of its way to improve relations with China.

Australia "wants to expand defense ties with China -- including boosting intelligence sharing on regional terrorist threats and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction," the paper said.

Defense Minister Robert Hill was quoted as saying that Australia wants more frequent "personnel exchanges, ship visits and naval exercises" as a way of establishing "a more mature relationship with Beijing." Hill did not mention Taiwan or the anti-secession law.

Australia’s position was underscored by the Lateline TV program, which reported that the United States has warned Australia that "it will be expected to intervene against China."

The show quoted former Australian prime minister Malcolm Fraser saying that "a senior American official has said more than once, in the presence of Australians, ’If or when we go to war with China over Taiwan, you’ll have to do a lot of the dirty work.’"

"Any conflict would pose huge questions for nations like Australia," concluded correspondent John Taylor. "Whether to side with a major and growing economic partner or with a small democracy against a massive authoritarian regime."

In the Philippines, the government and the media are focusing more on increased cooperation with China than they are on the Taiwan story. Last week, the Manila Bulletinreported that defense minister Avelino Cruz Jr. is planning a trip to China aimed at establishing a "mechanism for dialogue and consultations" with Beijing, including the possibility of military training.

And the Manila Timesreported Monday that the national oil companies of the Philippines, China and Vietnam have signed an agreement "to conduct a joint three-year seismic survey of the Spratly Islands," a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea that China has claimed as its own.

China’s diplomacy in Asia would seem to be a classic combination of proverbial carrots and sticks: the stick of possible military action against Taiwanese independence advocates and the carrots of military and commercial cooperation for nations willing to regard Taiwan’s political status as an internal Chinese affair.

So far this combination is keeping America’s allies on the sidelines of the conflict in the Taiwan Straits.

Lauren McMahon provided research for this column..