"Home price appreciation will slow but the level of prices will still rise. I would say appreciation will be anywhere between 8 and 10 percent compared with 12 to 15 percent you saw this year. It's a more modest number, but it's too early in the cycle for a crash."
-- John Silvia
chief economist,
Wachovia Corp.
"They'll slow some. There's not going to be a crash. Are there some markets that will see price declines? Absolutely. Not the Washington market. I wouldn't expect any price declines here."
-- Douglas Duncan
chief economist,
Mortgage Bankers Association
"I still see upward movement in the prices of new homes. If we continue to grow jobs in the 60,000 to 70,000 range per year, we're not producing enough housing of any type to meet that demand, and the end result has to be price increases. It's a simple law of supply and demand. I don't think we'll see relief from that until we see interest rates climb significantly."
-- Tom Bozzuto
chief executive,
Bozzuto Group
"I hope that with rising interest rates and some of the market having been satisfied, we won't see any more 20 percent appreciation rates. I would like to see appreciation be slightly more than the inflation rate, in the 5 to 7 percent range. If we have that, we can live with it long term. We can't live with 24 percent long-term."
-- P. Wesley Foster Jr.
chief executive,
Long & Foster Inc.
"We're going to continue to see house prices increase, probably not at the rate that we've seen in the past couple of years. There will be periods of leveling off. But for the overall, for the year, we'll definitely see an increase in house prices."
-- Susann Haskins
president,
Greater Capital Area
Association of Realtors
"Condo prices went up 27 percent last year in the Washington area. They're not going to go up 20 percent again next year. The market will cool down, but we'll still see solid double-digit increases, somewhere in the teens. The cool-off will come because supply is finally catching up. And demand will moderate a bit. . . .
"Anybody who thinks they should wait because prices are coming down will be sorely disappointed. They'll just be losing money by waiting."
-- Gregory H. Leisch
chief executive,
Delta Associates
"We do expect some significant deceleration in home prices, but not a decline. We see national home prices rising about 3.5 percent next year. The reason is that we have a lot of areas where home price appreciation has significantly outpaced income. Those areas are going to experience a significant deceleration or even outright declines. The majority of the country will see gains of about 4 to 5 percent. In some areas, there will be corrections. That's why we're forecasting only a 3.5 percent increase."
-- Orawin Velz
economist,
Fannie Mae
Housing Sales
"Sales will look a bit more like normal, but not completely. Houses will stay on the market a bit; sometimes they'll sell for under the asking price. We'll move towards a normal market over the next years, not in 2005.
"The first half of the year will be better for sales than the second half of the year, as interest rates inch up. There will be some weakening of sellers' positions over the year. If I wanted to sell my house, I would do it this coming year, not wait until 2006."
-- Stephen S. Fuller
regional economist,
George Mason University
"There are 80 million-plus baby boomers pushing the investment market these days, and the second-home market, and helping their offspring buy. The other demographic force is their kids. . . . The ones at the older part of that age spectrum are heavy in the market. . . .
"We've said every year it can't be as hot as last year again. We're seeing signs it's not quite as hot, but it's still warm in this region. The demand is sucking up the inventory."
-- Dale E. Mattison
Long & Foster agent and
member, board of directors,
National Association of Realtors
"Home sales will remain quite strong. They won't be setting any records. If mortgage rates don't go up, if they average 5.8 percent again, we will have another record in home sales."
