One morning last week, nearly 500 Washington business leaders, community activists and senior citizens gathered in a chandeliered ballroom at the five-star Mandarin Oriental hotel for a lavish, $20,000 breakfast featuring eggs on brioche, honey yogurt and the first big speech of the 2006 race for D.C. mayor.
The size of the crowd and the size of the tab were impressive. And the affair quickly established the host -- D.C. Council member Vincent B. Orange Sr. (D-Ward 5) -- as a credible contender in a campaign that is starting earlier, attracting a larger crowd of potential candidates and shaping up to be more expensive than any in city history.
With Election Day nearly two years away, Orange is one of four contenders -- two council members and two politically prominent lawyers -- who have formed exploratory committees to raise money in preparation for a run against Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) if he decides to try for a third term. Five others, including council Chairman Linda W. Cropp (D) and former U.S. attorney Eric H. Holder Jr., also are considering entering the race.
Orange said he has raised $200,000 in exploratory funds, which can be used for travel, polls and events such as the Mandarin breakfast, though not for the campaign. "People need to understand that I'm very serious about this -- serious as a heart attack," said Orange, whose district includes much of Northeast Washington.
The next big event is Jan. 8, when Ward 4 council member Adrian M. Fenty's exploratory committee is to hold its first fundraiser. Lawyers Michael A. Brown, son of former commerce secretary Ron Brown, and A. Scott Bolden, the recently defeated D.C. Democratic Party chief, said their exploratory efforts are not far behind.
Williams said he is unconcerned by the pack of potential challengers circling his office. Their interest in his job is testament to his success and the city's financial stability, he said.
"Just as Linda Cropp has improved the reputation of the council, I think I have improved the prestige of the mayor's office. It's a more coveted job now," said Williams, who plans to decide this month whether to seek a third term. "I do believe if I were to run, I would be successful."
There is, however, a growing sense in political circles that Williams, who was elected in 1998 and 2002, will not run again. Friends say he often seems weary and uninterested in the job, and his new post leading the National League of Cities is likely to take him away from Washington with greater frequency.
"People at least perceive that Tony is not going to be a candidate," said Douglas J. Patton, a lawyer who advised both of Williams's political campaigns.
If Williams did run, even some of his closest advisers said it would not be an easy race. Orange, Fenty and Brown said they think the mayor is vulnerable.
"Mayor Williams is a mayor who a lot of people respect but few people love," said Jamin Raskin, a law professor at American University who follows city politics. "These candidates clearly perceive some weakness in Williams's armor. The upset victories of outsiders against incumbents in the 2004 council elections have given a lot of candidates big ideas about toppling the mayor."
With the defeat in the September primary of three veteran council incumbents -- two of whom had Williams's endorsement -- disgruntled voters signaled frustration with city policies that seem to enrich some neighborhoods while neglecting others. The ongoing battle over building a baseball stadium in Southeast has amplified those tensions.
The four early contenders are building campaigns around a theme of uniting the city by closing the gap between rich and poor. They promise to run aggressively in the largely African American neighborhoods east of the Anacostia River, where that message is resonant and Williams is hugely unpopular.
Fenty and Bolden have been the most critical of the mayor. Bolden calls baseball "a great political vehicle because of the visual: You're running to invest half a billion in a stadium as we walk past crumbling schools and an empty [public] hospital building."
