Fenty, 34, is the council's most vocal critic of the stadium deal. A tireless campaigner, he won the Ward 4 seat by defeating Charlene Drew Jarvis, a council veteran who had represented the District's northern tip for more than 20 years. He has since built such a reputation for responsiveness and constituent service that residents in other wards often call on him for help.
Fenty said the baseball package is emblematic of a larger failure of leadership in Williams's administration. "There's huge dissatisfaction with the current mayor," he said. "He's seen as an out-of-town, disengaged, bad manager."
Orange and Brown were more charitable, saying Williams has presided over a remarkable urban renaissance and has restored the city to financial health. But they said they are better positioned to unite the District and deal with its lingering problems.
Orange pointed to the poor performance of the public schools as an indication that it's time for new leadership.
"Even Mayor Williams has said a third term isn't worth much," Orange said. "I see things in the city that he's not really equipped to address, and I think I am."
Brown, who grew up in the District, casts the Los Angeles-born Williams as an outsider who doesn't get the District's "vibe."
"Inclusion is going to be a big theme for us," Brown said. "This is about participating in government and energizing our community to understand that you have to get involved to get your agenda to move forward."
Still, any incumbent starts with huge advantages. Williams would have no trouble raising money from the business community, which is generally supportive of his policies, grateful for his steady leadership and delighted that he has persuaded Major League Baseball to return to the nation's capital after 33 years. Most political observers say the field would narrow dramatically if Williams got in the race.
Council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), who ran for mayor and lost to Williams in 1998, seems reluctant to take him on again. Evans, who represents Georgetown and much of downtown, said his role as Williams's chief ally in the baseball battle "has been politically damaging."
"But it's not just baseball; it's everything -- my family," said Evans, a widower who is raising three young children alone. "I would love to be mayor. I just don't know if I am going to run for it."
At-large council member David A. Catania, who abandoned the local Republican Party in a dispute over gay rights, said he will run as an independent in the general election if Williams wins the Democratic nod. And former Verizon president Marie C. Johns said she is giving the race "serious consideration" whether Williams runs or not.
But political observers doubt that many potential challengers will follow through if Williams runs.
"If the mayor decides to run, a whole lot of people will run home and keep quiet," said Marilyn Tyler Brown, the District's newly elected representative to the Democratic National Committee.
Four years ago, Williams drew no major opposition until a petition scandal barred him from the Democratic ballot. He scrambled to mount a write-in campaign to win the Democratic primary election and won easily in the general election.
City Administrator Robert C. Bobb said he has advised the mayor to declare his candidacy now and put potential rivals on notice. But Williams has sent mixed signals. Earlier this year, he cautioned, "People shouldn't have my political memorial services yet." Meanwhile, he's told some close supporters that he is not inclined to run.
If Williams stays out, Wilson Building insiders say Cropp could become the front-runner. Her decision to abstain from voting on the baseball package last week was seen as a sign of her interest in the race; the move could be intended to inoculate her from attack by stadium opponents, such as Fenty.
A number of politically active women are urging Cropp to run, among them Emily Washington, a teacher and activist in Ward 7, which lies east of the Anacostia.
"If Williams were not to run, I would just jump head over heels into her campaign," Washington said. "It is going to take somebody not just with vision but with compassion and good business sense to make a tremendous difference for this city. And only a woman can do that."
Those close to Holder said he, too, would be keenly interested if Williams were out. Cropp and Holder would not discuss their intentions for this article.
With no clear signal from Williams, his supporters are starting to test the waters. Several turned up to take Orange's measure at the Mandarin Oriental breakfast, including Patton and Vincent M. Spaulding, president of the Hillcrest Civic Association and one of the seven activists who originally drafted Williams to run for mayor in 1998.
"At this point, we don't know what Mayor Williams's plans are," Spaulding said. "If he doesn't run, we have to look for someone else who hopefully will walk in his footsteps in terms of being a progressive innovator."
