Iraq Elections

Bathsheba Crocker, fellow and co-director of the Iraq Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was online Friday, Jan. 28, at 1 p.m. ET to discuss Sunday's upcoming first national democratic elections in Iraq.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Under the interim Iraqi constitution, any three provinces can reject the permanent constitution if two thirds of their voters vote that way. What happens then is new elections for a new assembly to try to write another draft, and, if the constitution keeps being rejected, a perpetual process of holding more elections for new assemblies to write new drafts. While this clause was intended to protect the Kurds, couldn't it end up allowing three of the insurgent Arab Sunni provinces (e.g., Anbar, Salahuddin, Nineveh) to bring the new Iraqi political process to a grinding halt with no permanent constitution ever getting approved?

Bathsheba Crocker: You raise an interesting question, especially because there is no clause in the interim constitution that addresses the issue of multiple rejections of a constitution. In fact, all the interim constitution (the TAL) says is that if the constitution is rejected, either becuase a majority of Iraqis don't vote in favor of it or as you suggest below, then there are to be elections for a new national assembly. That's as far as it gets. It's also important to remember, though, that the TAL does allow for a 6-month extension of the whole process if the national assembly determines, by Aug 1, 2005, that they can't draft the constitution by Aug 15. This provision could become useful in the event it becomes apparent that the Sunnis or Kurds are unlikely to support the constitution.

Although the provision was originally meant as protection for the Kurds, the larger worry now is how the Sunnis might use it.

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San Jose, Calif.: Thank you for hosting this discussion today.

Do we know many Iraqis are eligible to vote, and how many have actually registered? What kind of turnout would be considered successful enough for most countries to recognize these elections as legitimate?

Bathsheba Crocker: The estimates are that, in Iraq, there are about 14 million eligible voters. I heard on a news program this morning that around 13 million had registered. Sunnis who live in the insurgency-heavy areas of the country will be permitted to register on the day of the election; all others must have registered by now.

There are an estimated 1 million expatriate Iraqis eligible to vote, of which no more than 200,000 have registered.

I don't think we should focus so much on what level of turnout--after all, we don't get particularly high voter turnout even in the U.S. The more important questions will be judging the free and fair nature of the election--could people who were eligible and wanted to vote do so? Will the elections be marred by an incredible amount of violence? What kind of turnout will we see in key Iraqi cities, like Kirkuk, Baghdad, Mosul, Fallujah? How many Sunnis will be able to or try to vote, and how will they react to the elections after the fact?

I think those are the kinds of questions both Iraqis and the international community will be more focused on, rather than numbers of voters who actually vote. I think we can reasonably expect that in the relatively more safe Shia and Kurdish areas of Iraq, turnout will be quite high.

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Washington, D.C.: When will we get the results of this election? Sunday night or will it be a longer wait? What authority is responsible for counting the votes?

Bathsheba Crocker: I wouldn't advise staying up late Sunday night for Iraqi election results. We shouldn't expect to know anything by Sunday or even Monday. Most are guessing that it will take anywhere from 10 days to 2 weeks before votes are tabulated, although we may start to get some ideas about likely results earlier than that, at least in certain cities or with respect to the larger political slates. It will be a difficult process--votes are to be counted by hand, and there will be intimidation against elections officials and polling sites.

The Independent Iraqi Electoral Commission has trained tens of thousands of Iraqi poll workers and will be responsible for certifying the results. There is a small international team of elections experts but they will not play to usual role of such teams. They are in Amman Jordan and will not be in Iraq to monitor or observe the vote. The plan to review reports of voter registration, voter turnout, etc on the basis of reports they get from Iraqi poll watchers in the country.

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Mons, Europe: With a united slate and a highly-motivated population, aren't the Kurds likely to be overrepresented (well over 25 percent) in the upcoming assembly?

Would that spell trouble?

Bathsheba Crocker: I do expect the Kurds to be somewhat overrepresented, for the reasons you suggest and also because the Sunnis will be underrepresented.

While their relatively strong position will presumably help the Kurds in the constitutional negotiating process, it could, as you note, portend trouble if the Kurds use that position to press their expansionist tendencies. We can expect, based on recent statements by Kurdish leaders, that they will push their position on Kirkuk forcefully in the constitutional drafting process.

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Cortez, Colo.: If there is anyway of knowing, I wonder how many expatriate Iraqi people are serving in the military or with the military in Iraq?

Bathsheba Crocker: Interesting question. I am sure there is a way of discovering the answer; the military probably keeps records.

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Winnipeg, Canada: Former Iraqis around the world are casting absentee ballots. Meanwhile, in Iraq, standing for office means taking your life in your hands, and even showing up to cast a ballot might be a life-threatening event.

I worry that voter turnout in Iraq might be so low that, in effect, people who do not live there will impose a government on those who do. If so, how will that effect the legitimacy of the elections, as perceived both outside and inside Iraq?

How democratic would it be for non-residents to choose a government?

Bathsheba Crocker: There was certainly some concern when the initial plan to allow expatriate voting was announced that one million eligible expatriates could in fact sway the vote. Because there was such a low registration of expat voters, though, that won't happen. At most, 150,000-200,000 expat Iraqis will vote, which likely won't be significant enough to sway the vote at all and certainly not overwhelmingly.

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Arlington, Va.: I've read that Zarqawi vows to kill Iraqis who vote in the election. I also heard that Iraqis who vote will have their fingers marked with indelible ink. Doesn't this seem counter-intuitive... to make a mark of those who vote?

Bathsheba Crocker: I have wondered recently about that same question--it is very worrisome to think about Iraqis, at least in certain areas of the country, walking around with a black mark on your thumb could be highly dangerous. It is enough, I would think, to deter some people from voting. At the same time, though, the security restrictions on Sunday wil be so tight that it will be fairly obvious who is voting anyway--the only Iraqis moving around Iraq at all on Sunday are likely to be those going to vote.

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Alexandria, Va.: Will the elections change anything in the short term in Iraq?

Bathsheba Crocker: I don't think we should expect the elections to change much if anything in the short-term. First of all, it will be at least several weeks before we know the results of the election and, after that, the new government will go through the proces of appointing a president, 2 vice-presidents, a prime minister, and a cabinet of ministers. There will be a lot of wheeling and dealing and backroom politicking going on, which will be dominating the political scene.

On the security front, I don't think we'll see any change in the tenor or activities of the insurgency in the short term, or in response to these elections. If anything, there is a real worry that the elections could make things far worse than they already are, by hardening ethnic, religious, and sectarian lines and further fueling the insurgency.

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Wheaton, Md.: Will the newly elected government of Iraq make peace with Israel? If not, what makes this government any different than the other terrorist governments of the Arab world?

Bathsheba Crocker: We certainly don't know the answer to that question yet--keep in mind, the new government to be elected on Sunday is only a transitional national assembly; it will not be the permanent government of Iraq. Although the results of Sunday's elections may provide us with a window into the likely future makeup of Iraq's government, the new government will have to, first, draft a constitution, second, put that constitution out for a national referendum, and third, oversee yet another national election for a permanent Iraqi government.

Whether to make peace with Israel, while certainly something the U.S. hopes an Iraqi government will do, is also certainly something that only a permanent Iraqi government can do.

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Winnipeg, Canada: In response to the question of perpetual elections because of multiple rejections, my country's recent constitutional history might be informative. While the process was not the same as Iraq's, our constitution did not go forward for ratification until it had the numbers. Former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau made sure he had the support of the provinces first. In the end, one province (Quebec) abstained, but the Supreme Court upheld the constitution.

Similarly, Iraqis could have a constitution ratified if the framers of that constitution take the time to consult and gain consensus from all provinces before going to a vote. The key is a genuine spirit of cooperation and a willingness to consider factors other than pure regional or sectarian interest.

I don't know what the odds of that happening are, though.

Bathsheba Crocker: You raise an excellent point--it will certainly be critical for a broad range of Iraqis from throughout the country to have the opportunity to participate in some meaningful way in the constitutional drafting process. The interim Iraqi constitution actually envisages just such a process, in that it calls for broad consultations, but the key question will be what happens in practice. All too often, constitutions, like peace agreements, are negotiated in secret or among a closed group, and the end result is a constitution that country's people don't feel a stake in. Given all the other difficulties--in particular, figuring out how to ensure good Sunni and other minority participation in the drafting process--I hope Iraq's fragile new government also focuses on finding a mechanism to accomplish just what you suggest.

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Bath, U.K.: I'm curious how the elections will operate on a local level. What if some candidates favored by the insurgents ultimately gain power, pressing their "you're not hardcore unless you live hardcore" agenda?

Bathsheba Crocker: Interesting question, although it's doubtful that your concern will play out in practice. One of the fundamental problems with the political process up until now has been the marginalization of Iraq's Sunnis. Those Sunni politicians that have been part of the political process do not have the support of the Iraqi insurgents, and their message doesn't seem to resonate strongly enough among the Sunni population. The insurgents themselves are not backing any political candidates; in fact, they are doing everything they can to stop the election. Moreover, the "insurgent stronghold" parts of Iraq are precisely the areas where we are likely to see the lowest voter turnout, diluting any "pro-insurgency voting" there might be.

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Gunnison, Colo.: Hello Mr. Crocker, I am a junior in college with high interest in this upcoming election. I am simply curious how the Iraqi people feel about the U.S implementing democracy.

Question: I was wondering if, in your eyes, is there anything about this upcoming election that President Bush could do to improve any conditions surrounding the elections?

Question: How do the Iraqi people feel about their first elections? Positive, negative?

Bathsheba Crocker: I think there are many things the President and the U.S. could have done before now to improve the conditions surrounding the elections. The political process in Iraq since the fall of Saddam has been seriously flawed if not an outright disaster, and the United States was the engineer of that process. Going forward, the most important thing will be whether the Iraqis find a way to muddle through and get to a political process that is more viable, legitimate, and credible in the eyes of the Iraqi people. The security situation is certainly the enormous worry for Sunday's vote, and we can only hope that the U.S. military and the Iraqi security forces have developed a plan that will at least minimize to some extent the likely violence we will see.

Iraqis in many parts of the country are excited about and looking forward to this election. Many will go out to vote at great personal risk. It is the one thing Iraqi have had to focus on as a possible means to get to a legitimate Iraqi government, which they've been craving since the fall of Saddam. In the Sunni areas of the country, though, there is far less enthusiasm about either the upcoming elections or the likely makeup of a future Iraqi government.

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Munich, Germany: Do you think that there will be any long term disadvantages for the Sunnis within an Iraqi democracy if they are underrepresented or disenfranchised in this first election?

Bathsheba Crocker: The real question in terms of longterm disadvantage to the Sunnis is whether they are brought into (and agree to join) the political process after the elections are held. There certainly will be a longterm disadvantage if Sunnis are left out of the constitutional drafting process that is set to happen in the coming months. They will need to be engaged in that process in order to have some say over key decisions the Iraqis will be facing, such as the role of religion in government, power sharing, minority rights, and sharing of oil revenues.

Going forward, we need to watch for whether the Shia and Kurdish members of the new government agree to come to some political accommodation that allows for the Sunnis to enter the political process, and whether the Sunnis agree to enter that process.

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Washington, D.C.: After the elections, Iraqis will have a long way ahead of them to install a government that will function properly. The TAL did not expand the role of the decentralized government nor did it discuss how governance will occur for Iraqis. Which U.S. government agency is responsible for assisting the Iraqis make a smooth transition? How much money has been allocated?

Bathsheba Crocker: The U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development will be the agencies responsible for supporting and advising the Iraqis-but it should, anyway, be up the Iraqis and not the United States to make a smooth transition. In reality, I doubt the transition will be smooth; it is more likely the Iraqis will muddle through, which at the end of the day might be fine.

I don't know the exact amount of U.S. money that has been set aside for governance issues going forward. But I would just reiterate that I think it's key from the perspective of getting to a legitimate political process in Iraq that the United States not any longer try to socially engineer the political process in Iraq. If we are seen (even behind the scenes) to be doing so, it will doom the chances of that political process being seen as truly credible in the eyes of Iraqis, the region, the broader Muslim world, or the international community.

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