Doubts Linger as Kerry Advances

Yet many Democrats are concerned that Kerry will have a harder time than previous candidates detailing his positions in a way voters can readily understand. Kerry holds nuanced positions on many issues, such as trade, that do not translate into 30-second sound bites. One of his plans -- cutting taxes for corporations in exchange for ending overseas tax-dodging -- is not easily explained and turns off many liberal Democrats because it includes tax breaks for wealthy corporations.

Despite spending 20 years in the Senate, Kerry has not left a distinct policy mark, having chosen to focus more on investigations. And, at times, he has straddled both sides of issues. The Bush campaign frequently chides Kerry for voting for Bush's plan for education and the Patriot Act, only to criticize both on the campaign trail. In the middle of June, "it's unclear what John Kerry's vision and message [are] for the country," said Steve Schmidt, spokesman for the Bush campaign.

Even on abortion rights, which Kerry has consistently supported, his staff is unclear about whether he would appoint lower-court judges who oppose Roe v. Wade.

A top Democratic aide, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about Kerry, said many members and staff say it is hard to explain what Kerry stands for, and what he has stood for in the past. The aides said the Kerry campaign is aware of this concern and committed to addressing it.

At this point in 2000, it was clear Bush stood for lower taxes, sweeping education changes and a strong military. In 1992, it was clear Clinton was a "new kind of Democrat," who would cut taxes for the middle class and revamp health care.

Kerry adopted a cautious approach to this campaign, anticipating that factors outside his control, such as Iraq and terrorism, could alter the race at any moment, a top aide said. A senior Kerry adviser, who requested anonymity, said this has left many on the staff wanting, both in terms of strong leadership and inspiration.

Kerry may never stir Democrats passionately, but he may not need to. Since his earliest days in politics, Kerry has appeared somewhat detached from the people and voters who helped elect him. He is cerebral, and his interests -- such as windsurfing -- and his wealth separate him from the general public. Despite Kerry's two decades in the Senate, not many Democrats consider themselves "Kerry Democrats" or ardent loyalists, or even close friends.

But few doubt his seriousness and stature, which many Democrats think voters are looking for in this election. The danger is if voters come to see Kerry as a candidate more of ambition than ideas and more calculating than complicated, Democrats say.

Although Democratic constituencies from unions to abortion rights activists remain committed to Kerry despite concerns about his commitment to their issues, the durability of that loyalty could be tested soon.

Many Democrats are bracing for a Bush resurgence -- if not in the weeks ahead, then after the GOP's national convention in August. After Bush's poll numbers dropped to what history says are perilous levels, he has hit a run of potentially good fortune.

Bush's plan to return power to the Iraqis at month's end is gaining support after the United Nations unanimously voted in favor of the U.S.-sponsored resolution. Back home, the economy is humming again. Nearly 250,000 jobs were added in May, oil prices are dropping and there are signs of a sustained turnaround in even in the hardest-hit manufacturing belt.

"We are seeing some upturns," said Wisconsin Gov. James Doyle (D). Wisconsin, which has the second-highest percentage of manufacturing jobs in the nation, has been trimming unemployment rolls at a steady clip in 2004. "I am pretty confident . . . we are turning around. I think it helps [Bush] some."

All of this sets up the Democratic convention in Kerry's home town of Boston in six weeks as a potentially make-or-break moment for the nominee.

"He has a problem in that people don't know him and don't have a great affinity for him," said former representative Tony Coelho (D-Calif.), who chaired Gore's campaign. "The time is coming when he has got to get people turned on. Right now, you just got to be in the game, and he's there."

Polling director Richard Morin contributed to this report.