In 2005, there's a good chance you or someone you know will buy a digital television set and a satellite radio and purchase a movie at home using a remote control or laptop. In the newspapers (strike that -- on the Internet), you'll read more about radio and television indecency and may very well see the Supreme Court take the first step toward tossing out the federal regulations that have kept NBC from looking more like HBO.
Where 2004 saw Comcast Corp.'s attempted takeover of the Walt Disney Co., the Big Music merger between Sony Music Entertainment Inc. and BMG Entertainment, Edgar Bronfman Jr.'s purchase of Warner Music Group and NBC's purchase of Vivendi Universal's movie and television properties, no big media mergers are on the horizon for the coming year, other than the eventual purchase of troubled cable company Adelphia Communications Corp., possibly by Time Warner Inc.
A trade group expects 7 million high-definition televisions to be shipped by the end of 2005, adding to the almost 10 million already in U.S. households.
(Daniel Acker -- Bloomberg News)
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This year's action will take place in the living room and courtroom, said a group of more than two dozen media, entertainment and technology executives, policymakers, commentators, public interest advocates and consultants informally surveyed by The Washington Post. Among the top technology and policy issues for 2005:
• Digital television: By the end of 2004, there were almost 10 million digital television sets in use in U.S. households, most of them high-definition televisions (HDTV). Seven million more will be shipped by the end of 2005, predicts the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), the trade group of electronics makers.
Digital televisions enable local television stations to add channels and improve the picture and sound quality of broadcasts.
"The tipping point has already occurred for HDTV," said Gary Shapiro, CEA president. "Every major network is broadcasting in HDTV, and everybody who has ever experienced HDTV wants it."
Congress or the Federal Communications Commission is expected to set a date for the end of the transition from analog to digital broadcasts -- a date by which all over-the-air analog signals must cease, policymakers said.
Cable companies such as Comcast also like the digital conversion because they hope 2005 is the year that video on demand (VOD) catches on. VOD lets cable subscribers buy movies and programs when they want and adds another revenue stream to the cable industry, which has stopped adding customers as more viewers are switching to satellite services.
"Most consumers lack the awareness of VOD's existence," said Shari Anne Brill, a media buyer with Carat USA. "VOD will get a bigger push from cable systems."
More consumers will listen to digital radio in 2005, as well.
