Pay satellite radio services offered by XM Satellite Radio Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. passed the 3 million and 1 million subscription marks at the end of 2004, respectively, and both will angle for more talent along the lines of Howard Stern and Bob Edwards in 2005.
Regular broadcast radio will try to fight back by, like television, converting its signals from analog to digital, improving the sound quality of radio shows, adding channels and adding text to programming for consumers who buy new digital radios. The technology will enable stations to offer niche programming -- similar to WTOP's new Federal News Radio -- and charge for premium content.
A trade group expects 7 million high-definition televisions to be shipped by the end of 2005, adding to the almost 10 million already in U.S. households.
(Daniel Acker -- Bloomberg News)
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"Satellite radio will either see strong upward movement, or the bubble will start to burst," said Jeffrey H. Smulyan, president of Emmis Communications Corp., which owns 27 radio stations. "I pick the latter," he added, perhaps hopefully.
• Your TV is your phone; your phone is your TV: Consumers will get more choices as cable companies offer phone service and Internet phone calls become a reality. At the same time, regional phone companies will offer video service competing with cable companies, said David L. Cohen, Comcast executive vice president.
"Next year will bring more breakthrough technology to consumers, including more voice choices through new platforms like cable and WiFi and more video choices through phone lines, broadband and cell phones," said Michael K. Powell, chairman of the FCC. "The consumer sits at the center of the information universe as more powerful tech tools come into the home."
• Toy story: XM already has a portable radio that will record five hours of programming; expect to see more TiVos for radio. Also, hard drives will be put to greater use: Game boxes will be used to store movies and MP3 players will hold photographs.
Sales of TiVo and other digital video recorders will continue to grow slowly but will speed when television manufacturers begin building them into new digital sets, predicted Alex Wallau, president of ABC network operations and administration.
You can expect to see full-motion video come to cell phones this year, as wireless networks get faster, Powell said. Possible content: short news clips and local weather.
This could be a critical year for the movie industry, as it battles online and bootleg piracy. Hilary B. Rosen, former president of the Recording Industry Association of America, wonders if the movie industry will wait until piracy reaches crippling levels -- as it did in the music industry -- before licensing a significant number of movies for sale online and creating the "iTunes for movies," referring to Apple Computer Inc.'s popular online music store. The studios' initial attempts to sell movies on the Web, at sites such as Movielink, have not caught on.
Technology also will continue to spur shifts in programming, others said. As more television viewers rely on 24-7 cable channels for news, the traditional network evening news program may change, said Tucker Carlson, who hosts shows on CNN and PBS.
