Fearing Big Battle, Residents Flee

U.S. Weighs Move on Samarra, Now Controlled by Factions

BAGHDAD, July 21 -- Tens of thousands of people have fled Samarra, about 60 miles north of Baghdad, in recent weeks, expecting a showdown between U.S. troops and heavily armed groups within the city, according to U.S. and Iraqi sources.

Residents of the city said guerrillas told people to leave neighborhoods in anticipation of a larger battle after a clash on Tuesday in which U.S. warplanes bombed two houses, killing at least four people, according to military authorities.

"I will not go back to Samarra," said Mohammed Mohammed, 37. He brought his extended family of more than 70 brothers, cousins and children to Baghdad this week because of the dangers. "We expect the resistance will be very strong when the Americans go in. And the Americans have no mercy."

Samarra is now controlled by a volatile mix of tribes and gangs, some split along religious lines, and supporters of ousted president Saddam Hussein, according to interviews with numerous Samarra residents who have fled to Baghdad. On July 8, some of those groups launched an attack in which a car bombing was followed by a fierce volley of mortar fire. Five U.S. soldiers and an Iraqi National Guardsman were killed and 40 people were injured.

Even before that, U.S. military authorities had been planning how to retake control of the city without a bloodbath. Officers said they were determined not to let Samarra follow what they call the Fallujah model. U.S. forces made an agreement to stay outside Fallujah, a city west of Baghdad, in order to end fierce clashes there during April. The city is now under the control of insurgents.

"We're not going to make that pact," said Maj. Gen. John R.S. Batiste, commander of the Army's 1st Infantry Division, which operates in the area. "Right now, it is a town where nobody is in charge. That, we will fix. At the end of the day, there will be a city under competent civil government."

U.S. military planners complained in private that Fallujah was a bad deal, allowing the city to become a rallying point and stronghold for guerrilla forces.

"It's the lily pad theory. Fallujah exports itself to Samarra, which exports itself to the next place," said Lt. Col. James Stackmo, an intelligence officer for the division, headquartered in Tikrit. "In Samarra, there's probably 100 to 300 fighters who are holding the town hostage. We're not going to allow a militia in Samarra. We're not going to do it."

The U.S. military will try to mount a joint operation with Iraqi security forces, officials said. Under the plan, U.S. forces would likely seize Samarra in a powerful assault, then have Iraqi National Guard or police officers patrol the city.

"It's not a situation that will necessarily evolve into what we saw in Fallujah in April," said Brig. Gen. Erv Lessel, the Army's deputy operations chief in Iraq. "We learned then how important it is to make sure we have capable Iraqi security forces in place to maintain security when the multinational forces withdraw from an area."

"We've pulled back a little. But don't think for a minute that's permanent," Stackmo added.

But formation of a competent and well-trained Iraqi force has taken more time than officials had hoped. Officials said it has been particularly difficult to mount a contingent willing to take on the challenges in Samarra. The mortar attack on July 8 was aimed at a compound used by U.S. and Iraqi National Guard troops. Since then, many of the guardsmen have quit rather than participate in the fighting in Samarra, according to Mohammed.

"There's no National Guard. And the police in town do their patrols, but they take their orders from the mujaheddin," said Mohammed, who said he had been in Samarra on Tuesday.

"Right now, the mujaheddin and insurgents control everything," said Hassan, another Samarra resident who left the city with his family to move in with relatives in Baghdad. He refused to give his last name, fearing retribution.