RICHMOND -- Virginia's gubernatorial campaign is unfolding as a contest of competing squirms.
One candidate is squirming over his record, particularly on the death penalty. The other is squirming over his party's record, particularly on taxes. That's right: Death and taxes are the twin certainties in the likely contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine and Republican Attorney General Jerry Kilgore.
Take Kaine's predicament first. The Harvard-trained lawyer's quick mind, fluent oratory and unscripted command of policy have excited his party's faithful. But as a Democrat running in Virginia, he starts out in a four- to six-point hole. He is a devout Catholic whose adherence to church doctrine on the sanctity of life has informed a long record of active opposition to capital punishment, including having once backed a moratorium on executions. (He's also against abortion, except to safeguard the mother's health.)
In Virginia, Kaine's qualms on the death penalty are a problem: Only Texas has executed more people in recent decades, and Virginians who support the death penalty probably outnumber opponents by better than 3 to 1. None of the state's recent candidates for governor, Republican or Democratic, has expressed the slightest hesitation about it.
So, even before the race has really started, Kaine has been forced on the defensive by the death penalty. That, and the fact that Kaine once handled a few cases for the American Civil Liberties Union, are all the Republicans think they need to polish him off. "That's the whole campaign," a chortling GOP strategist told me, unable to contain his delight. "You watch, that's how the campaign will unfold."
In most other states, it would be a stretch to call Kaine a liberal. He opposes gay marriages as well as civil unions. The ACLU cases Kaine handled are hardly off-the-wall; one was on behalf of a black couple denied housing in a white neighborhood.
No matter. In Republican hands the letters alone -- A-C-L-U -- will serve as a mark of Kaine, branding him as a political untouchable.
Faced with this telegraphed punch, Kaine has backpedaled. Political observers and allies describe him as a man of integrity and conviction. But he's also realist enough to recognize the folly of running on an anti-death-penalty platform in Virginia.
So Kaine's line on capital punishment has morphed -- he still opposes it for reasons of faith, but says he would be duty-bound to enforce the law as governor. Of course, he's being a little disingenuous; as governor he would be legally authorized to commute the sentences of convicts on death row, or declare a moratorium on executions. But Kaine won't go there. "I take an oath; I'm not crossing my fingers," he said. "I'm going to uphold the law."
Kaine would rather run on economic development, education, health care and transportation. But to have a chance of winning in Virginia, he needs to do more -- and to blur partisan lines, as Democratic Gov. Mark R. Warner did when he won in 2001 by embracing NASCAR, the death penalty and gun rights.
Where taxes come in, Kilgore starts to squirm. He's a drawling, good-natured, down-the-line Republican from rural southwest Virginia -- politically savvy and very conservative.
But Kilgore's party fractured last year over Warner's tax hike, and it hasn't regrouped. Forced to choose sides, Kilgore went with the anti-tax true believers over the budgetary pragmatists. Now he'd love to paper over the split; he's endorsed all 17 Republican delegates who broke ranks to side with Warner for higher taxes. But he will be hard-pressed to run an anti-tax campaign, given his party's garbled message.
He is hoping for a partisan fight with Kaine along the cultural divide -- especially on the death penalty and gun control. He's offered a bill that would expand capital punishment by making some accomplices to murder eligible for the death penalty.
But Kaine, remarkably for a red-state Democrat, may try to keep the focus on taxes, Democrats say. Of course, he won't use the T-word. He'll speak of responsibility, good governance, investing in schools. While Kilgore paints Kaine as an ACLU lawyer, Kaine will portray Kilgore as an obstructionist who'd subvert Virginia's future.
What Kaine also needs is some of Warner's magic. The telegenic governor hiked taxes, split the GOP and emerged sitting pretty in the polls -- a hat trick that's contributed to his '08 presidential buzz. "Any Democrat has to be a Democrat-plus to win in Virginia," said Bob Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. "And Kaine's plus is Warner."
But how closely Warner wants to associate himself with Kaine is an open question. When they ran together in 2001, Warner took the opportunity of their first joint news conference to distance himself from his more liberal running mate. Warner, winning in cities, suburbs and even some rural areas, cruised to a comfortable victory; Kaine, even with a weak opponent, barely eked out a two-point win.
Kilgore has his own ace in the hole: Sen. George Allen, Virginia's other possible presidential wannabe. Allen has rock-star status with the party's foot soldiers. He's more dependably partisan than Warner, and he and Kilgore are close.
The early betting says Kaine is a dead-ender as a Democrat in Virginia. But some solidly Republican states -- Kansas, Wyoming, Arizona -- have Democratic governors. And despite Kilgore's political smarts, he's seemed intellectually outgunned by Kaine in their few joint appearances so far. The election may depend on which candidate can keep the other squirming to the end.
The writer is a member of the editorial page staff. His e-mail address is hockstaderl@washpost.com.
