Both Parties Claim Registration Success

But Despite Fierce Get-Out-the-Vote Efforts, Neither Has Gained Major Advantage

After spending millions of dollars and untold energy to register voters this year, Republicans and Democrats are running neck and neck in registration drives in five battleground states, while Democrats have made notable gains in two others, a survey of recent figures suggests.

Neither party has gained a significant registration advantage in such hard-fought states as Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, a Washington Post study shows. The strongest gains for one party belong to Democrats in Pennsylvania and Iowa.

Still, advocates and analysts said unprecedented efforts by political campaigns and independent groups leave them better placed and better funded than ever to get new voters to the polls in what is expected to be a very close presidential election.

"It's a sign that these organizations are warming up for the main event, which is turnout," said Donald P. Green, a Yale University professor of political science. "In this race, which is so close, if a campaign registers a person and knows where to find that person, they will do whatever they can to get them to vote."

Each side is claiming success, but important details remain unknown in the frantic race to the finish. Registration figures are incomplete. Statistics are not kept by party affiliation in Ohio or in such critical states as Wisconsin and Minnesota, where the major parties and their proxies continue to wage a fierce fight and voters are permitted to register on Election Day.

Experts also caution that voter drives do not automatically translate into election results. Newly registered voters could stay home or be trumped by independents or waves of sporadic voters motivated to go to the polls.

A review of the most recent registration figures shows:

• In Iowa, Democrats have registered four voters for every new Republican voter since 2000. Since this year's caucuses, Democrats have outregistered Republicans by 9 to 1, narrowing the GOP lead in registration statewide to about 8,000.

• In New Mexico and Colorado, Republicans have outregistered Democrats by about one percentage point each. In freshly competitive Colorado, Democrats have beaten Republicans in this year's totals but remain behind when the past four years of registration are taken together.

• In Florida, Republicans have also registered slightly more voters than Democrats have. Rolls have grown by more than 1 million since the 2000 election in the state that President Bush won by 537 votes. But nearly half of the new registrations have come from less predictable independents and small-party loyalists.

• In Nevada, there is a 1 percent increase in the other direction, with Democrats overtaking Republicans for the statewide registration lead. As in other states, the group of registrants who gave no major-party affiliation grew far faster, adding 28,400 names.

• In New Hampshire, Democrats made up some ground, but they continue to lag behind Republicans in statewide registration by 40,000 voters. In the eight months leading up to the 2000 vote, more voters registered than in the same period this year.

Media attention has made 2004 seem like a busier registration year than usual, but the numbers in New Hampshire suggest otherwise, said Secretary of State William M. Gardner. He added that the picture may change on Election Day, when he estimates 10 to 20 percent of voters will join the rolls.

Terry Nelson, national political director of the Bush-Cheney campaign, said Republicans are counting on a disciplined registration drive to yield votes for Bush. He said the GOP has registered 3.4 million voters nationwide since January 2003, paying particular attention to past voters who have moved within a state or from one state to another.