Outlook: Measuring Success in Fallujah

In Sunday's Outlook section, retired general and former presidential candidate Wesley Clark joins the rest of the Americans who have been scouring reports of the U.S.-led assault on the Iraqi city of Fallujah. And Clark says it is understandable if those readers are experiencing a degree of confusion and uncertainty.

Even as U.S. and Iraqi government troops advance street by street through the insurgent stronghold, the measure of their success is elusive. In the battle of Fallujah, Clark notes, there's no uniformed enemy force, no headquarters, no central command complex for U.S. troops to occupy and win. At the end, there will be no surrender.

Instead, Clark says, the outcome of the battle must be judged by a less clear-cut standard: not by the seizure and occupation of ground, but by the impact it has on the political and diplomatic process in Iraq. And its chances for success in that area are highly uncertain. Will Fallujah, like the famous Vietnam village, be the place we destroyed in order to save it? Will the bulk of the insurgents simply scatter to other Iraqi cities? Will we win a tactical victory there only to fail in our strategic goal of convincing Iraqis that we are making their country safe for democracy-and specifically for elections at the end of January?

Clark, a Vietnam veteran and supreme allied commander in Europe during the war in Kosovo, discussed his article, The Real Battle, on Monday, Nov. 15 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Cleveland, Ohio: There have been reports that a hard-line Taliban-style Islam is taking hold in the south and rural areas of Iraq. What have you heard about this and how will this affect our efforts in Iraq?

Wesley Clark: No doubt there will be efforts by the fundamentalists to establish a group that will work against a more opene and m0ore seculoar democracy. Right now, they have not joined up with the Sunni insurgents, which is good, because it will give us the opportunity to defeat them separately. But we should be under np illusion, this is going to be a difficult mission to salvage.

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Nashville, Tenn.: For those of us Americans alive during the battle of Hue City in Vietnam, the taking of Fallujah was impressive, having been accomplished in half the time and with one fourth the casualities. If it accomplishes nothing else, it revalidates the Powell Doctrine, which was reported by PBS Frontline only several weeks ago as being "in eclipse." On the news of Colin Powell's resignation this morning, did it cross your mind how much stronger our position in Iraq could be today if the the general had taken this step early in 2003?

Wesley Clark: If Powell had resigned in early 2003, maybe it would have forced the US to take another look before we went to war. The size of the force that we invaded with was a result of continuing heavy political pressure from the Secretary of Defense and his staf onto the generals. The generals always recognized the risks of having insufficient force, so I think the results to date do revalidate what has become known as the Powell doctrine.

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Louisville, Ky.: Gen. Clark,

I don't understand where we're going to find the troops to secure Iraq. In your estimation, can even the battle in Fallujah be judged a success, if the 10,000 or so troops needed to fight the battle, can not remain to secure the city? How many times are we going to have to "take" Fallujah?

Wesley Clark: Presumably, it took the insurgents months to build up their stronghold in Fallujah. They have no other such strnghold in Iraq, so far as we know. So, this should have been a helpful step militarily, but of course, muh depends on the impact it will have on the political and diplomatic landscape. As someone who isn't on the inside of the chan of command, it"s hard to see how they wouoldn't want more forces on the ground....we had to pulll one of the battalions off the enircrclement of Fallujah o go back to Mosul to deal with the situation there. So, more forces would hel[p. It's a matter of pulliing in more reserves, at least in the near term. If the situation deteriorates so badly that we start taking many more casualties, then perhapsthe Army would have to look at other measures, but as of now we are a llong way from needing a draft.

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Bedford, Pa.: Now that Powell is stepping down, who do you think would be good replacement and do you think the focus of the new Secretary of State should be first and foremost on the relationship between Palestine and Israel?

Wesley Clark: I would imagine that Condi Rice will be seeking the position. Certainly she is well familiar with the issues. Paul Wolfowitz is another name that may figure in the process. I can't see the President going to the Hill for someone like Senator Lugar, though he would certainly be qualified for the job. The first priority of the new Secretary ought to be the revival of the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, just as you suggest.

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Mattoon, Ill.: General,

What do you consider a win in Iraq? What tells us that it's time to leave?

Wesley Clark: A win would be the emergence of an integral, stable, peaceful Iraq that was something of a democracy and didnt threaten its neighbors. It might take some residual US troop presence for many years, assuming the elections go well next year, before the government of Iraq can really protect its borders and its sovereignty. If the situation declines dramaticallly, with increasing civil conflict and we are unable to quell the fighting, then we would face difficulot decisions about reinforcing the mission. but there is no exit without sucess, no exit tat will not severely damage the US in the region and increase the risks to our own security.

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Wayzata, Minn.: Impressions suggest that Secretary Rumsfeld may stay on with this Administration for the foreseeable future. Any comments?

Wesley Clark: I wouldnt be surprised to see him stay on. He is a favorite of the PResident and has never indicated any preference for leisure time himself. He probably wants to go out with a win, and figures if he can get through another year or so with iRaq he may be able to make such a claim.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Do you think the Democrats should replace Terry McCauliffe? And should the dems start four years of filibustering in the Senate, and four years of damning Bush for putting us in Iraq?

Wesley Clark: Well, youre asking real political questions, but here goes. First, I think Terry McAuliffe has already indicated that he wants to resign. So Dems will have to find a replacement. Tom Vilsack of Iowa is one name popping up now. As for the tactics in the Senate, there may well be fierce Dem resistance on the issue of replacements for the Supreme Court, but the most important thing for the Dems to do is now to determine what it is they stand for. They need a positive agenda, not just resistance to Bush...that"s the obligation of a two party system.

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Washington, D.C.: I know you say we are far from needing a draft, but I'm worried about the activation of people off the IRR (Individual Ready Reserve). I got out of the Army in '97, my IRR time was up in 2002. But I've been hearing stories of people whose 8 year commitment was met and they're being called back to duty. Should I be worried?

Wesley Clark: I think it would be extremely unlikely that you would be called back.

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Leesburg, Va.: Gen. Clark, in your article you explain that the U.S. needs to choose between a grand vision or success in Iraq. At the end of the article you so this is not so much a war as an effort to birth a nation. "You cannot win in Iraq simply by killing the opponent." I agree with all of those points, but it begs the quesion: What is success? What is victory? When will we know when we have achieved either?

Wesley Clark: Well, the defininition of success that I would propose is a peaceful, stable, democratizing Iraq that doesn't threaten its neighbors, have weapons of mass destruction, or support terorists. Some in the Administration see success as tearing up all the old states in the region, but I would counsel to low key such visions until we can get our arms around the problem of Iraq.

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Greenbrier, W. Va.: Gen. Clark, what are your career plans for the next few years? We hope you can continue a nationally recognized role in the country's future.

Wesley Clark: Thanks for your vote of confidence. Well, I am in the private sector, just trying to make a living. I will continue to speak out, and try to contribute to the public dialogue.

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San Antonio, Tex.: Would you be willing at this point to compare the Iraq war with the Vietnam conflict, or perhaps to "compare and contrast?"

Wesley Clark: Well, of course, there terrain is very different, and the scale of the commitment is very different, and the relative impact on our country is very different. But what is similar is that the Administrations have had difficulty reconciling the overall strategies and actions in the respective regions with the requirements on the ground. And in oth cases that has made it much harder on our troops. In the case of Vietnam we really didnt move against the North becasue we wre concerned about the chines and the Soviets...And it turned out the North Vietnamese air defense system was manned and controlled by the Soviets, while some 200,000 Chines facilitated logistics there. In the case of IRaq, we know that syria and Iran are interfering to some degree inside Iraq, but the Administration has simply failed to deal effectively with these countries.

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Nashville, Tenn.: As a military man, you advance the line that Iraq is a political problem, but the politicians point out that Iraq is awash in arms which is the job of the military. Ex-Navy Secretary John Lehman told the 9/11 Commission that we only found out after the Vietnam war that 80 percent of the enemy arms came through Sihanoukville, Cambodia not down the Ho Chi Minh trail. What are our commanders in Iraq doing to block the flow of weapons to the insurgents?

Wesley Clark: Most of the weapons of the insurgent in Iraq were left there by Saddam, apparently, so not that much has come acrosss the borders. Some high technology anti-tank rockets have, though. Plus a lot of individual jihadists. WE lack enough troops to really controll the borders, though we've gotten better in recent months. However, control of the borders remains a big problem. The first rule of winning against any insurgency is to isolate the operational area. We knew it, but didnt have the trooops to do it.

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Dubai, United Arab Emirates:

General Clark:

First off, let me say I'm very glad you stepped into the presidential race. I can really relate to and understand your points about honor, service, commitment and intelligence.

Second: Being in an Arab and Muslim country gives one a rather unique look at how events play out among people in the region. The general mood seems to be one of fear (both of bin Ladinism and America) and a sense that the Arab do not control their own destiny, but rather are the gas station for the developed world. President Bush and John Kerry both seem to believe that getting more active involvement from regional countries would help the situation in Iraq.

If you had won the election, what steps would you take to achieve the objective given the cultural and political challenges?

Thanks!

Wesley Clark: First, I would have set up a Contact Group of all the nations bordering on Iraq, to be able to bring their perspectives and asssitance to bear. Second, I would have put greater pressure on Pakistan to deliver OSama Bin Laden and on the Saudis to cut off the funding. And then I would have worked to promote economic modernization within the Islamic world.

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Bentonville, Ark.: It seems to me that there are two models in our history to fight this type of war where we go into a country and topple a dictatorial regime. The Vietnam model and the Serbian/Bosnian/Croatian model. Obviously, you are intimately acquainted with the latter and had experience in Vietnam. Which model is the Iraqi war taking on? Also, could the Iraqi war been fought with a true coalition of NATO/U.N. and Arab troops? If so, would the current chaos in Iraq been thwarted?

Wesley Clark: Well, the best way to have toppled Saddam would have been for his opwn people to do it, like we did with Milosevic in Serbia. It coulkd have been engineered over time. We also could have tried to enter with a bigger coalition. But the key was to plan realistically for post-war operations, meaning that you had to plan out the acitons for every city and village, lknowing who the current leaders were, whether they would be re[placed, how much food assistance they would need, and so on. But remmember, much of the current chaos in Iraq is the result of Saddam's plans, so without much, much larger forces, qwe would still have fallen prey to these kinds of troubles.

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Hailey, Idaho: Will a victory in Fallujah prove decisive in the struggle with Iraqi insurgents? Or will the insurgency simply pop up in other cities and keep the military in a continual game of whackamole in various Iraq locations? It sounds like many combatants may have slid out of the city already.

Wesley Clark: Unlikely that Falluyja will be deceisive...but it should stem the rising tide of insurgent activities for a little while. The insurgents have no other real bastion in Iraq, so the level of fighting, although it's sporeading now, should contract shortly. for a while. That gives the political process a chance to grip, if it can.

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Sacramento, Calif.: What does the departure of the moderates from the CIA and State Department mean to the future of our foreign policy?

Wesley Clark: What we really need are smart analysts, not people with committed viewpoints. Were the cia to be dominated by those who want a certain outcome, regardless of the facts, then it alsmost certainly spells troule. You need people inside government who'll speak the truth, even if it's not popular.

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New York, N.Y.: Why do you think so many people voted for Bush? Was it out of a sense of morality or fear? And why did they reject John Kerry a decorated veteran, who served admirably as a prosecutor, Lt. Governor, and senator?

Wesley Clark: It was a very close election, and John Kery won a lot of votes. On balance, you might say that people viewed the election as more about security than the economy, and they on balance preferred to worry about Bush's propensity to take us into the wrong war rathether than worrying about Kerry's supposed indecisiveness. But there are very many other interpretations of the results. It would be worng to see the results as a rejection of Kerry...or as a real mandate for Bush. It was just too close for that.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Clark, why do you think Mr. Powell resigned?

Wesley Clark: Only speculation, but he'd saif for some time that he didnt want to remain in a second term. And, as with any cabinet oficer there were no doubt personal as well as professional reasons. It's asking a lot to be in the cabinet when you're in your late sixties, working eighteen hours per day, and there were some conflcits and differences with the President and Vice President. But really, it"s up to General Powell o explain himself, and Im sure he will over time.

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Sacramento, Calif.: Is it possible to achieve stability in Iraq without a substantial increase in the number of U.S. troops on the ground?

Wesley Clark: It might be possile. we'll know more after the outcome of this battle. If we can really make the training process for the Iraqis work, then we've got a chance for success. Right now, I'd say it's too close to call.

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Arlington, Va.: Some people think you might have been a better match for Bush in this election, since so many voters seem to have rejected John Kerry's national security credentials and voted on that basis. I know you supported Kerry after you dropped out and have said his credentials were excellent, but why didn't people buy his argument? And of course, the big question: Are you interested in seeking the Democratic nomination for 2008?

Wesley Clark: Presidential politics is a tough game, and this was the most negative Presidential election in history. Imagine an incuymbent president spending as much time attacking his opponent as extolling his own acomplishments! I think the smear campaign against Kerry was harmful and hurt him. when the voters got a chance to see the two men side-by-side Kerry did very well. I think the OBL tape at the end scared some voters into going with Bush, too, even though it was on Bush's watch that he escaped capture at Tora Bora. Democrats stilll have to deal with a thrity year legacy of being known as "soft-on-defense," even though it isn't exactly true, and that hurt too.

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Washington, D.C.: I found your article very thought-provoking, but also depressing. I don't believe the current administration is able to grasp the situation. I don't have much hope for a change in their approach in the future, no matter what happens with Fallujah. Do you see any signs of change, of an intelligent nature? (not intelligence)

Wesley Clark: I think the generals in charge are brilliant and wise. I know most of them quite well. Hopefully, they"ll have the pulll to get what they need in the way opf diplomatic and political support from the Administration. But the overall results in iraq are still in doubt.

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Wintrhop, Mass.: Rumsfield and company seem to think that they know how to plan miliarty adventures better than the Pentagon. Is the Rumsfield crowd working off some kind of research or consulting with a group of experience military experts to make these decisions, or they purely political?

Wesley Clark: Of course Rumsfeld and his team have talked to many retiured military, and they ask a lot of tough questions. Rumsfeld is smart and capable. He just is a very powerful advocate for a cerain view of warfare which doesn't include large numbers of ground forces. It's up to the genrals in command to hang tough and stand up for what they need. This isn't easy. i know from my experience with the Kosovo campaign, but it can be done.

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Richmond Heights, Ohio: General Clark:

One of the reasons I've heard for the war in Iraq was to move our military presence from Saudi Arabia to a post-war Iraq. The point was that we need a permanent military presence in that part of the world and after 9/11 Saudi Arabia became too unstable. Do you know if we have plans for a permanent military presence in Iraq independent of the election or the security situation there?

Wesley Clark: I don't know whether there are any plans for a permanent presence, because it would depend on how you define permanent, but there are plans to keep forces there for a few more rotations. it alll could add up to the same thing. We did pull most stuff out of Saudi Arabia, but that wasn't the primary reason for the operation. There are still challenges from Iran and Syria, so our military expects to be in the deserts somewhere for along time.

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Ellicott City, Md.: The administration is fond of saying "Whatever the generals need, we give them." Is that really true?

Wesley Clark: NNot exactly true...thye're requests are questioned thoroughly and all alternatives a re examinied before sending more troops. So the generals are pretty cagey askers. Though when they really do need more forces and stand up to the Pentagon, they tend to get what they want.

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East Hanover, N.J.: Historically,how do you think Bush will be remembered? Will history be kind to his presidency?

Wesley Clark: Too early to say. That will probably be a principal preoccupation of his second term. right now, he's yet to leave much a legacy, but htere's [plenty of time, in both foreign and domestic affairs.

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Boston, Mass.: Now that you have run for political office within the Democratic party after your highly distinguished military career, what are your suggestions for a platform for the Democratic party?

Wesley Clark: The democratic party has to fight in the so-called Red States, and they have to be a "full-service" party. Can't cede states or issues like national security to the Republicans. Also, have to speak out for values, as Dems define them.

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New York, N.Y.: Given the odds against success in Iraq, do you think that those in the Bush administration who only planned for success, should be held accountable in some way for the current results?

Wesley Clark: Yes, they should have been hel;d accountable. that's what the recent election should have been about, but it wasn't quite so clear cut.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Secretary Powell is reported to have privately stated we are losing the war. How would you assess the war overall? Will many more troops be needed in coming months, and is this an engagement that should be expected to last for several years, or might it end soon?

Wesley Clark: It loks like the insurgency has gotten stronger with each passing month, but the insurgents are incapable of standing up to US firepower. So long as they stand to fight, and then are destroyed, we win...It's too soon to know he ultimate outcome at Falluja, but it is entirely possible that we will be vey successful on the battlefield but that this will give us nothing more in terms of preventing the spread of the insurgency or gaining wider political acceptance of Mr. Allawi. Still, as I indicated, the battle at Falluja was simply necessary. we had to!

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San Francisco, Calif.: Is this any way to fight an insurgency?

Wesley Clark: Unfortunately, we had to do this in Falluja. We couldn't let the insurgents have a city as a sanctuary. But your question indicates also that you know the real target is to gain the support of the people of iraq, and especially the Sunnis. The fighting is still going on, even in Falluja, but also across Sunni areas. Certainly everyone expects our troops to prevail wih relativiely low losses. So the test of success is more the political impact of the figting.

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Signal Mountain, Tenn.: Within the hour, we have learned of the resignation of Secretary of State Powell. How does this change affect your assessment for effective diplomatic efforts for the U.S. to be successful in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East?

Wesley Clark: Secretary Powell was well-acquainted with all the leaders and the issues surrounding the Iraq mission, plus he was fully in charge of his responsiblities in running the State Department. A new Secretary will need time to learn the job, even if someone like Condi Rice who is familiar witht he issues, steps into the position.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: This morning U.S. military spokesmen on CNN indicated that we killed or destroyed 10 percent of the insurgents/terrorists. Is this a success? And who/where/what are the remaining 90 percent?

Wesley Clark: Well, the results do indicate battlefield success, but the other insurgents are all over Iraq. The best victory would be that they lay down there arms and just disappear, never more to fight us. That probably won't happen. Instead, they"ll attract more recruits, so this is likely to go on b=for a time

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Winthrop, Mass.: Do you think the USA should expand its ground combat forces and by how much? It seems that even with the reserves, the military is severly overloaded, and is unable to maintain the minimum ratio of deployment to training ratio to maintain readiness. How long until this stress seriously lowers the effectiviness of our Armed Forces? Would they even be able to fight a serious foe now?

Wesley Clark: I woulod like to see us ad at least twpo more active Army combat divisions to the force. This would require about 60,000 more troops. And it owuld be an enormous help.

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Wesley Clark: Thank you for joining me today.

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