If John F. Kerry's ad-buying strategy could be crystallized in a single phrase, it would be "Judge Judy." In President Bush's case, it's "Cops."
Backed by record-breaking expenditures for TV advertising, the presidential campaigns this fall are pursuing intricate strategies to target would-be supporters via the programs they watch. While much attention has focused on creating the right advertising message, the medium is important, too. As a result, both campaigns, and their allied groups, have been tweaking the lists of programs they sponsor in order to put their ads before select groups of voters.
For example, "Judge Judy" -- a nonfiction program featuring a strong-willed judge who tries simulated cases -- is a daytime show that appeals to a group of viewers Kerry's campaign is counting on: middle-aged women, both single and stay-at-home moms. To appeal to this group, Kerry has also run thousands of ads on such daytime staples as "Oprah," "Dr. Phil" and "Live with Regis and Kelly."
At the same time, Bush is attempting to shore up his base of support among younger and middle-aged white men. Thus, viewers in several states are likely to see ads for the president on such testosterone-fueled shows as "America's Most Wanted" and "Cops," on the Golf Channel, and during NASCAR races.
The rest of the time, the two campaigns' program-buying strategies overlap. From dawn to dusk, they battle it out during commercial breaks in "informational" programs such as "The Today Show," "Good Morning America" and the 6 p.m. local news, according to independent analyses of campaign ad-buying patterns. The other common ground is "Jeopardy" and "Wheel of Fortune," two widely syndicated programs that appeal to older viewers, who tend to vote in higher numbers than other demographic groups.
With five weeks to go, the 2004 campaign already ranks as the most expensive and most advertising-intensive in history. Ad expenditures by the Bush and Kerry campaigns through mid-September topped $300 million, surpassing the 2000 race's total by at least $100 million, estimates TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a private tracking firm in Arlington.
The 2004 total does not include spending by independent groups. The Media Fund and MoveOn.org alone have spent about $50 million on anti-Bush ads in many of the same markets as Kerry, and often when his advertising was temporarily off the air.
The ad wars have gone on longer, too. In 2000, Bush and Al Gore did not begin advertising in earnest until June. This year, with Kerry having sewn up the Democratic nomination early, both candidates began crowding onto television in March.
The result is an unprecedented advertising pileup. Between early March and Sept. 21, the campaigns and independent groups have broadcast more than 600,000 spots about the candidates or the election, according to Kenneth Goldstein, a political science professor who directs the University of Wisconsin's Advertising Project.
The buying patterns suggest this may be the narrowest presidential ad campaign ever, with the nation split between ad haves and have-nots. Depending on the week, presidential commercials are running in only about 12 to 20 states, while most other states are in a virtual ad lockout. You won't see much in Washington, but it is raining commercials in Toledo, Tampa and Charleston, W.Va.
"If you live in any market in Pennsylvania, Ohio or Florida, you're guaranteed to see ads," says Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group.
The University of Wisconsin and Nielsen Monitor-Plus tracked an astonishing 501,259 ads (from both the presidential campaigns and allied groups) through the end of August and found that they had aired in only 100 of the nation's 212 media markets. Goldstein estimates that about 60 percent of the electorate has yet to see a campaign ad this year.
During September, he said, the ad field narrowed further. Kerry's campaign has moved ad money out of states once deemed competitive (Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona and Colorado), but for now considered in Bush's column.
The shifting state-by-state and city-by-city strategies essentially affirm something that became apparent in 2000: the death of the national campaign ad. No longer does the country see the same political message simultaneously, as it did for decades until the Bush-Gore race, when the practice stopped.
