Disparate Lists of Battleground States at Work
In an interview, Corzine cited Salazar, who has carried Colorado as attorney general, and state Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee in Illinois, as examples of Senate candidates who may provide "reverse coattails" for Kerry. Former White House chief of staff Erskine B. Bowles in North Carolina and Rep. Chris John in Louisiana could also improve Kerry's long-shot chances of victory in those states.
"I don't know of a single state where the Senate candidates are running away from Kerry," said his deputy campaign manager, Steve Elmendorf.
On the other hand, not all the Senate aspirants whose potential has excited Democrats are rushing to embrace Kerry or his policies. In South Carolina, a state Bush carried by 16 points, Senate challenger Inez Tenenbaum has led the ticket in her races for state superintendent of education, and Republicans face a primary and runoff before they will know her opponent. But as she tries to replace retiring Sen. Ernest F. Hollings (D), Tenenbaum has lined up with Bush -- not Kerry -- in supporting the death penalty, a ban on some late-term abortions and a constitutional amendment to outlaw same-sex marriages.
In the headlined race against Daschle, former representative John Thune (R) has tried repeatedly to link the Democratic Senate leader to Kerry's liberal or controversial policies, even unearthing a newspaper story from 1996 quoting Kerry as saying he favored steps to "get rid of the Agriculture Department, or at least render it three-quarters the size it is today."
Corzine said he is concerned that in states such as South Carolina, South Dakota, Georgia and Alaska, it is unlikely that the Kerry campaign, the Democratic National Committee or independent groups supporting Kerry will allocate money and manpower to build a turnout that could help Senate candidates.
On the GOP side, Mehlman and Allen say that even if such states appear certain to support Bush, the presidential campaign will provide a favorable environment for Senate candidates. Allen said Bush "had a huge effect in 2002," when his campaigning for GOP Senate and House candidates boosted turnout in Republican areas. "He can do that again this year, even if he doesn't go there," Allen said, pointing out that recorded phone calls with Bush's voice, TV spots and mailings can help down-ballot candidates.
Since an early appearance for Sen. Christopher S. Bond (R-Mo.), Bush has been rather sparing in fundraising for Senate candidates. But Mehlman said the president, Vice President Cheney and other senior administration officials had logged 46 fundraisers for Senate candidates as of last week. He added that "our donors are being encouraged to support the joint candidate committees" in states with Senate battles -- the GOP equivalent of the Democrats' coordinated campaigns.
One presidential fundraiser that drew attention was a stop in Pittsburgh to aid Specter before last month's GOP primary, in which Specter barely defeated Rep. Pat Toomey (R). Conservative groups such as the Club for Growth backed Toomey against the more moderate Specter, and some conservatives were unhappy that Bush intervened and -- in their view -- provided Specter's margin of victory.
The White House has also caught flak from some conservatives for backing former housing and urban development secretary Mel R. Martinez against Bill McCollum, the former House member who was previously favored in the primary for the open Senate seat in Florida. And in Alaska, appointed Sen. Lisa Murkowski -- beneficiary of a Cheney fundraiser -- has been forced to defend her Bush credentials against the claims of a more conservative opponent.
But whoever wins some of these intraparty fights, Mehlman said, "the president is very committed to avoiding a lonely victory, so we are working closely with the state parties and our candidates."
Corzine conceded that "the layout of the presidential map is not the most comfortable for us -- with five Senate seats to defend in the South -- and targets for us in Colorado, Oklahoma and Alaska." But he suggested that Republicans may be disappointed in their hopes for presidential coattails. "As more and more people decide the country is off on the wrong path, I think they are discovering the advantages of checks and balances," Corzine said. "That's what Senate Democrats can provide."
Political researcher Brian Faler contributed to this report.
© 2004 The Washington Post Company
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