U.S., Iraq Prepare Offensive to Pave Way for Election

Allawi said he is now working closely with Army Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the top U.S. commander in Iraq, with whom he meets at least once a week. But the Iraqi leader made clear he has the last word on when and how to conduct offensives. "No operation takes place if I don't sanction it myself," he said.

To balance the military options, Allawi is also involved in discussions with tribal and other leaders from the Sunni triangle to persuade them not to aid the various insurgents, including remnants from Saddam Hussein's government, foreign fighters and Islamic extremists loyal to Abu Musab Zarqawi.

"I say to them, if you want to be part and you want to run this country, then we have the elections. If you really represent the people of Iraq, January is coming and you can be elected by the people, and then you can decide what you want -- whether you want the multinational force or whether you want to make Iraq an Islamic state, whether you want to elect [Osama] bin Laden, it's up to you," Allawi said. "[But] you can't force issues on us; that's what Saddam did."

Since the June 28 handover of power from the U.S.-led occupation government, more Iraqis have been willing to provide the interim government and U.S. officials with information about where insurgents are hiding, Allawi said. "One of the reasons why the targeting is becoming much better, hitting the safe houses of the insurgents, is because . . . people are informing on these elements," he said.

In his radio address yesterday, President Bush said the United States stands with Iraqi government strategy "to surround and isolate enemy militias, reach out to the local population and negotiate from a position of strength." Bush acknowledged that "serious problems" remain in several cities but backed Allawi's contention that a combination of "decisive action and outreach to peaceful citizens is the most effective way to defeat the killers and secure the peace."

A key test of this strategy will come as the election season formally opens. On Oct. 15, Iraq will begin mailing out registration forms; eligible voters can turn them in at centers where Iraqis pick up monthly food packages from Nov. 1 until mid-December, U.S. and Iraqi officials say. Iraqi and U.S. officials are concerned that insurgents will target registration centers in the same way they have attacked police stations as they try to undermine the fragile new Iraqi government.

The election, to be held by Jan. 31, will create a national assembly, which will in turn pick a new government to replace Allawi's interim government appointed by U.S. and U.N. envoys. The assembly will also oversee the writing of a new national constitution.

In effect, U.S. and Iraqi officials say, a race is underway to see whether Iraqi forces can stabilize volatile areas after U.S. troops clean out insurgents -- and whether Iraqis will embrace the U.S.-designed transition plan -- both in just four months.

The danger, warn Iraq experts, is counting on Iraqi security forces. When a similar approach was tried on a smaller scale last spring, Iraqi security forces broke under the strain and a large percentage melted away, with some even turning on U.S. troops. The Marines ended up exiting Fallujah only after creating a new brigade of Iraqi fighters to take control of the city. When that unit began shooting at Americans, a Marine commander called the outcome a "fiasco."

The question now is whether Iraqi forces will prove more reliable and durable now. There are some positive signs. In fighting in Najaf last month, U.S. commanders said Iraqi units performed well. "We have some good units in operations now," Allawi said.

But in a new study released Friday, Middle East security analyst Anthony H. Cordesman charged the Pentagon overstated the size, quality and progress of Iraqi police and military forces. As many as half are of "uncertain loyalty and capability," he said. He concluded it would be at least a year, and perhaps as long as mid-2006, before Iraqi forces will be qualified to take over security missions from U.S. and coalition forces, permitting a major reduction in U.S. troop levels.

Another report issued Friday by Rep. David R. Obey (Wis.), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said 27,000 Iraq security personnel -- out of the 100,000 identified by the Bush administration -- are sufficiently trained to be considered "minimally effective."

"I've got real doubts about these guys," said retired Army Col. W. Patrick Lang, former head of Middle Eastern Affairs for the Defense Intelligence Agency. "I think the whole election thing is too soon," he said. "They're rushing it -- they don't have enough trained troops."