Outlook: 2004 Crystal Ball

In Sunday's Washington Post, 13 political wizards share their predictions for who will come out on top on election day in the Outlook Crystal Ball Competition. Each participant predicts who will win the presidency (both in the electoral college and by popular vote), which party will rule the House and Senate, which party will control the most state houses and which presidential candidate will carry Florida.

Ana Marie Cox, aka "Wonkette," discussed the upcoming election and her picks in this year's contest.

Cox's political blog Wonkette.com -- mixing insider reports, anonymous tips and occasional R-rated humor -- has become a must-read for those who crave the latest inside-the-beltway buzz.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Ana Marie Cox: Hey folks, it's good to be here. . . who needs gorgeous fall days when there's wonking to be done?

Let's get started.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: Is your prediction based on what you think the outcome will after all the ballots are counted, or what the outcome will be after all the court cases have been decided over the following weeks?

Ana Marie Cox: My prediction is based on the Magic Eight Ball we keep in the bathroom. Really, I am probably the least informed of all the Crystal Ball respondents. I do think it'll be close, but I think even Osama thinks it'll be close and he has almost no polling data to go on.

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Royal Oak, Mich.: Just a comment. Read the Crystal Ball predictions and was so disappointed at who was chosen. Most of them are spinners for the candidates. It was more of the same old, same old and hardly any revelation.

No crystal ball was needed to know what Tucker Carlson, Ann Coulter, Bill Crystal and Donna Brazille would say. Any dummy could have told you upfront and you could have saved the space for something worthwhile. Like a column of predictions from psychics and astrologers, which at the very least would have been interesting.

Ana Marie Cox: I actually did consult an astrologer, but she was getting her polling data from Zogby, so I discounted it.

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Lakeland, Fla.: I just read the 13 election predictions in the Outlook section, and with a couple of exceptions, they are very close and evenly split in the Presidential race. I live in a county in Florida that is extremely conservative and Republican. As I drive around the area, I see as many yard signs for Kerry/Edwards as I do for Bush/Cheney. Of course, this is not scientific, but 4 years ago Gore signs were noticeably absent. I wonder if we won't be seeing some real surprises that the polls have not detected, especially in favor of Kerry. Do you think this is possible or likely, and if so, what surprises and where?

Ana Marie Cox: I think we may see more coming out for Kerry than the polls show, because the pollsters have a hard time weighting for newly registered voters and because of the much-discussed cell-phone only crop, who aren't reached by traditional polls at all. Because the wireless folks are younger, one could guess they'd lean to Kerry... but even the youth vote is more unpredictable than ever.

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Bethesda, Md.: Please, please tell me that Bush isn't actually going to win New Jersey.

P.S. love your blog!

Ana Marie Cox: Bush isn't actually going to win New Jersey.

P.S. I may be wrong.

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Wheaton, Md.: Wonkette, I loved your debate coverage. My question involves voter competency. Should there be a basic aptitude test required for voter registration? I've seen some startling data from the Program for International Policy Attitudes (www.pipa.org) at the University of Maryland. According to them, 72 percent of Bush voters think we found WMDs in Iraq, and only 31 percent realize the majority of the world opposed our invasion. They assume the majority of foreigners favor the re-election of the president (the reality is 2-to-1 for Kerry). They also go to the polls under the misconception that their candidate supports the Kyoto Treaty and the International Criminal Court.

The president has made standardized testing a gatekeeper for the promotion of schoolkids to the next grade. Should we adopt a similar approach for the voting booth? I'm starting to think letting just anyone cast a ballot encourages a "soft bigotry of low expectations" for the electorate. Thank you for your thoughts on this.

Ana Marie Cox: Well, why not just go all the way and make sure people will vote for Kerry before they cast their ballot?

Just kidding, but the problem you've locked into here is pretty much just one of the pitfalls of democracy. . . You let everyone vote, and, well, almost everyone votes. And I guess I'm just not comfortable with the idea that the government could get to say who's "educated enough" to vote. The government's in charge of education now and look what they've done...

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Washington, D.C.: Where did you get the crack you were smoking when you made your Crystal Ball predictions?

Ana Marie Cox: MMMmmm, like I'd tell.

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Virginia: What are your predictions for the GOP and/or Democratic Party after a post-Kerry win? What about a post-Bush win?

Ana Marie Cox: I actually think the GOP will weather a Kerry win better than the Dems will weather a Bush win. . . the DNC had to fight hard to make sure Kerry was the nominee and they're very invested in making it happen.

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Austin, Tex.: How can you be so damn foxy, and still manage to get any work done?

Seriously, thanks for the blog. It's been really important to me and my friends keeping our sense of humor during this dank campaign.

Ana Marie Cox: I just try not to keep any mirrors in the house.

Seriously, thanks for reading.

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Madison, Conn.: How exactly are the Democrats going to regain control of the House 221(D)-213(R)?

Ana Marie Cox: If those numbers seem off, it is because I pulled them out of my ass. I didn't even want to answer the question -- the House is like the intern class, it really doesn't matter -- but Outlook made me.

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Washington, D.C.: Were you surprised to be included in this year's Crystal Ball? I mean, really, you're not really a political analyst -- more like a gossip. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Ana Marie Cox: See previous reply. I was very surprised. As was my astrologer.

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Anonymous: "The government's in charge of education now and look what they've done..."

You are straying from your Democratic Talking Points.

Ana Marie Cox: Stop beating me, Mr. McAuliffe, I'll be good, I promise, I will!

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Washington: This is not meant to be a slam, but a sincere request for information. What is wonkette.com exactly? I mean, I've looked at it and as far as I can tell, it's mainly links to other Web sites with some snarky Ana Marie Cox quips in the interstices. I may be desperately old school, and you no doubt will have a response that is both self-deprecating and cutting, but I can't help feeling that I'm missing something, that there's more to blogs such as yours than links 'n' quips. Because if it's just links 'n' quips, then I'm not sure I understand what the big deal is.

Ana Marie Cox: I don't understand what the big deal is, either.

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Silver Spring, Md.: What's your favorite political read? Daily papers... mags... other blogs...?

Ana Marie Cox: I have to read so many things I don't like that it's hard for me to find time for things I do. I've plugged lowculture.com a lot, though it's not strictly political. I also never miss an issue of entertainment weekly. My political news intake is governed more by what I think I need to read rather than what I want to. So I watch a lot of Fox, listen to Limbaugh, and read the Corner.

Then I take a scalding hot bath.

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Washington, D.C.: Do you think interest in your blog will wane after the election? Have you thought of expanding beyond the overwhelming political bent once things have settled down?

Ana Marie Cox: I think interest in most political blogs will wane. I do start to posting more about sex and drinking after the election. I plan to starting doing more of both, as well.

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Arcata, Calif.: If Bush wins, who do you think will leave his cabinet?

Ana Marie Cox: I've heard about twelve different scenarios. What's funny is that people feel very certain there will be a shake-up, but there's no consensus on who will leave. I've heard Rumsfeld is out and Condi will take his place. I've heard Condi is out to head the NFL, I've heard Powell is out, I've heard Ashcroft is out. I've also heard people argue with equal passion that Rumsfeld CAN'T leave and that Ashcroft has to be there to pass Patriot 2.... I personally hope this is a moot point.

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Charlottesville, Va.: I'd like to second the recent comment from Royal Oak, MI regarding the predictability of the Outlook panel. It would have been interesting to see some perspective from less- likely experts. Ana, What are your thoughts on Colorado and the ref there for proportional electoral votes -- esp. seeing it'll be effective this election if it passes?

Ana Marie Cox: I would love the Colorado referendum to pass. I think it's the only sane response to the massive cock-up (that's PG language, right?) that is electoral college. If it does pass, I hope it's a watershed moment and that other states follow through.

And I, too, wish that I had not been the only total ignoramus on the Outlook panel. More uninformed opinions, please!!!

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New York: Any aspirations besides blogging?

Ana Marie Cox: As you may have heard, I'm working on a novel.

After that, a line of handbags.

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Austin, Tex.: If the election ends in a tie and is thrown to the House or back into the courts, where would you suggest I start looting?

My wife says Nordstrom, but I'm leaning toward Best Buy.

Thanks for the morning and evening TV show summaries. I hate having to watch that stuff.

Ana Marie Cox: Nordstrom is a good call because they have that awesome no-questions-asked return policy: If you loot the wrong size, you can always exchange it.

Me, I'll be in NYC for election night (doing commentary for the NBC family of pap), so I may start at Saks.

And I will pass your compliments on to Dan and Neal, the guys who watch TV so you (and I) don't have to.

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South Bend, Ind.: I'm from DC, and I've worked there, and when I was there a "wonk" referred to a policy geek, not a rumor-monger. Not that being a "monger" of anything is bad. But what gives with the name, Wonkette?

Ana Marie Cox: I was soooo high.

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Canada: Do you know or hang out with any of the other Crystal Ball Prognosticators? Were you surprised that Tucker Carlson chose Kerry to win the White House?

Ana Marie Cox: We meet for dim sum every Saturday.

No, seriously: I know Tucker socially and have met Carter, but I don't know any of them well enough to tell you how high they were when making their predictions (it sort of puts you in touch with a high plane of consciousness....)

I wasn't that surprised by Tucker's choice. I believe he's been pretty critical of Bush and is disappointed by him... and perhaps he feels his disappointment is shared by conservatives in the electorate.

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Washington, D.C.: Style or substance?

Ana Marie Cox: Yes.

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Washington, D.C.: I'm less interested in the minute-to-minute polls than in the the significance of most commentators assertions that the volatility of polls now makes it impossible to really draw any conclusion about the numbers. Should we assume that people really have made up their minds and are lying/not responding to the polls, and if so, what are the "spun" perceptions of the vast American "midlands" -- Christian, randomly conservative, unchallenged by bad policy -- likely to mean to the elections on Tuesday?

Ana Marie Cox: I confess I don't quite understand this question. If you're asking about wether or not it's imposisble to draw any conclusions based on current polls, well, I do think that. It's not that people have made up their minds, it's that everything's so close, pollsters get a skewed picture with each sample. And their current models just can't keep up with the new variables in the race.

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Alexandria, Va.: Favorite campaign moment so far?

Ana Marie Cox: "Need some wood." By far. Excellent television, great Wonkette material.

Also, side note: It's occured to me that I've made reference to being "high" probably too many times. I don't actually smoke pot. I just want to make that clear. Rather, I drink a lot.

Now, back to these excellent questions. . .

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New York: Just wanted to say that picture of you on the front of the New York Times Magazine was fantastic. How was the photo shoot?

Ana Marie Cox: Omg. The coke, the dancing girls, the trapeze artists. . . it was out of this world. And Apple still owes me for that bet about what I could do with a cherry stem.

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Arlington, Va.: What is Nader thinking?

Ana Marie Cox: You'll have to aske the action figure dolls that appear to be his advisors. . .

http://www.wonkette.com/archives/ralph-nader-unsafe-at-any-size-024572.php

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Anonymous: What is your proposal for campaign finance reform?

Ana Marie Cox: I honestly believe that all-public financing is the only way to make this system anything close to equitable.

You can start calling me a commie pinko symp now.

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Harrisonburg, Va.: So what is your book going to be about?

Ana Marie Cox: It's an election year novel set in the month between the conventions. My model is "The Gay Place," a wonderful novel about LBJ and his staff by Billy Lee Brammer, which is unfortunately out of print. . .More recognizable: I'd like to do for politics what Nick Hornby did for indie rock. My book is tentatively called "Dog Days," will be out in 2005 from Riverhead. Thanks for asking!

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Somewhere, USA: Can you please explain the electoral college? A brief history, how it works and why we also have a popular vote will suffice.

Thank you.

Ana Marie Cox: I refer this answer to someone who actually finished a graduate degree in history. (If Mr. Wonkette comes back in the room, I'll ask him.)

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Arizona: Okay, Bush looses this year. Can you check your magic 8-ball and come up with some likely GOP candidates for ‘08?

Ana Marie Cox: It's not my Magic Eight Ball, but names you're likely to hear include Tom Ridge and Guiliani. . . I have just checked in with the handsome and tenacious Jake Tapper (of ABC), and he says to also keep an eye out for Bill Frist and George Allen.

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Bad Schwalbach Germany: Actually public financing of elections is the norm here in Europe. Can we call you a cheese snorting chocolate imbibing frenchified wimpette instead?

Ana Marie Cox: I do love all those things, so, please.

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College Park, Md.: What happens if the Supreme Court picks the president again?

Ana Marie Cox: Riots in the streets, blood in the rivers. But, as I've said, perhaps violence is the way to get Americans interested in voting again.

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Anonymous: Dear commie pinko,

Why not just go the other way and have completely open campaign contributions as long as all contributions are open for the public to see? Do you really want to pay for Tom DeLay or Robert Wexler to run?

Ana Marie Cox: This is the other rational alternative, tho not I believe the fairest one. Whether or not I personally want to see DeLay run isn't, of course, the point. The point is that some people with more money than me might want to see DeLay run. . .

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Silver Spring, Md.: Do you think the majority of journalists in the mainstream press prefer Kerry? Or Bush? Or are just split evenly like everyone else? (I'm not talking about whether their coverage is biased, but just their private opinions.)

Also, which candidate would provide the best material for comedians?

Ana Marie Cox: I believe Dana Milbank expressed the sentiment of the traveling press corps (at least) the best, when he pointed out that a Kerry win would mean trips to Idaho and Nantucket rather than Waco.

And as Jon Stewart has pointed out: Both sides provide good material, especially since what's really absurd is the process, not the individuals within it.

To continue not answering questions myself, the talented and suave Jake Tapper adds that Sen Chuck Hagel, NE and Gov Mitt Romney, MA are both presidental hopefuls for 2008.

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Shorewood, Wis.: Why do you think it is that the media is so quick to accept the premise that Bush will benefit from the emergence of Ossama bin Laden's tape, when it merely crystalizes the failure of his so-called "war on terror"?

Ana Marie Cox: I think that was the conventional wisdom prior to actually receiving the tape -- that any "endorsement" by OBL of Kerry would help Bush -- so upon actually getting it, the media just proceeded with it. However, OBL and the media both underestimated, I think, just how much Americans resent foreigners meddling with their elections at all. I mean, we don't even like it when the British try to influence us.

(Our own right to mess with other country's democratic process is, of course, God-given.)

Also: The Friday before the election? At 4PM? Not quite the PR genius we thought, no?

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Dayton, Ohio: Why is your website not updated as regularily as Drudgereport?

Ana Marie Cox: Because Drudge has a secret army of evil spider monkeys working for him. At Wonkette, it's pretty much just me.

And I did mention the drinking, right?

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Dallas, Tex.: "...just checked in with the handsome and tenacious Jake Tapper"
You did? Where are you?

Ana Marie Cox: I checked in with the well-dressed and wise Jake Tapper via Instant Messenger. I am in an undisclosed location.

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Washington, D.C.: I am sure you are well aware of the Redskins history in picking the president. As a Democratic Redskin fan, should I root for the Skins or Kerry? I am so torn.

washingtonpost.com: A Sunday Win May Foreshadow Tuesday's Victor (Post, Oct. 27)

Ana Marie Cox: I am aware of this, uhm, "method" for deciding the future of the free world and all I have to say is that thank God Rehnquist is on the injured list.

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Crawford, Tex.: Do you use Windows or Mac?

Ana Marie Cox: Mac, mac, mac. All the way. I'm on an iBook right now, but I have a 12" Power Mac as well. And two iPods. Do you think they might give me some free stuff?

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Washington, D.C.: What were your experiences with MTV? They sure didn't show you enough during the Democratic Convention.

Ana Marie Cox: They are a lovely bunch of folks who do the best they can to throw in some political content between episodes of "Pimp My Ride." I had a great time at the convention, tho I don't remember the last two days very clearly.

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Iowa: Desperation Dept.: I desperately want the political ads to stop airing because I am wearing out the remote switching channels. But I (and many of my friends) are also desperately afraid of four more years of Dubya at the helm. What is the Crystal Ball cure for desperation?

Ana Marie Cox: Bourbon and gelato.

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Ana Marie Cox: I guess we're getting close to wrapping up here, folks... Get those questions in and I'll try to answer as many as I can before proceeding to the Crystal Ball cure for desperation.

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Re: Two iPods: You want to explain that one to us?

Ana Marie Cox: One of them is nominally Mr. Wonkette's...

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Bad schwalbach Germany: 52 democratic senators? (your prediction)

What`s Edwards gonna find to do with his time if he ain`t gotta be in the Senate for tiebreakers? Do I sense a modeling career in the cards?

Ana Marie Cox: I think he'll be plenty busy rolling around in his piles and piles of money.

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Little Rock, Ark.: I am heading to hear Bill Clinton this afternoon stir up the yellow-dog democrats in Arkansas. I feel a great shift in this state to consider strongly JFKerry as their next President. Any reason Arkansas still is not considered a swinger?

Ana Marie Cox: If Bill Clinton is back, the state is swinging indeed.

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Chicago, Ill.: Now that Jenna and Barbara are seriousy out and about are they game or behaving themselves? They seem so young or maybe I mean immature. Not like university graduates but more like college freshmen. Do they have any serious plans?

Ana Marie Cox: I believe the only serious plans the Bush twins have are for who buys the next round and we have that in common. I love those girls and I hope partisan bickering does not get in the way of them accepting the gift basket I sent them.

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Austin, Tex.: Along the Mac/Windows line, what's your alcoholic beverage of choice?

Ana Marie Cox: Oh, I'm much more open on this question, though I don't like any mixed drinks with more than three ingredients and (sorry) don't like beer much. It makes me feel logey. I enjoy wine as much as any Euroweenie, and vodka martinis make me feel smart.

All that said, my usual is Makers rocks.

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Olympia, Wash. Its interesting that the Democrats haven't used some of the footage of President Bush reading the goat book. Why do you think this is? Seems to me a pretty damning episode for Bush.

Ana Marie Cox: I think Osama beat them to it.

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Baltimore, Md.: Who do you think has the edge in newly registered voters?

Ana Marie Cox: Conventional wisdom is that Kerry has the edge but no one knows. That's what makes this election so fun!

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: What's the private buzz among Washington bureaucrats and partisans when their mouths aren't frothing with the party soap? Any signs that one side is bracing more for their guy to lose than the other? Are you seeing any groundhog-like signs portending an expected winner?

Ana Marie Cox: The Bushies are more scared than they have been, which is interesting. And KE04 seems more confident. But this could all be some sort of weird inside-baseball expectation-gaming. Again, no one knows. Which is sort of refreshing.

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Anonymous: Who are the best and worst campaign surrogates for each side?

Ana Marie Cox: This one is tough. Tempting to say Kerry's worst is Teresa and Bush's worst is Bush. But, more seriously:

Best Bush: McCain (though it could be that I just enjoy his rictus of steely resolve that undercuts everything)
Worst Bush: Zell Mill (the man is insane)

Best Kerry: Clinton/Springsteen (and in the "unknown" category, Jamie Rubin)
Worst Kerry: Tad Divine (who may be a sparkling wit and nice guy in real life, I don't think I've actually met him, but on tv he's like a derranged Mr. Rogers)

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Iowa: Thanks for desperation "cure" for PES (pre-election syndrome). Much better than the desperate housewives' cures of ironing or pie-baking.

Ana Marie Cox: If you would like to come to my place to bake pies or do ironing, that would be fine.

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Ana Marie Cox: And with that plea for housekeeping help, I think I'm going to wrap things up. This has been great fun and it is, of course, my prefered way to interact with people. Fewer germs, not required to wear pants.

Please vote on Tuesday, whether or not you know who the Europeans would like to win.

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