States' Ailing Finances Change Forecasts for Governor's Races

The governor's races offer a Rubik's Cube of possibilities because so many are competitive. But almost all the scenarios involve Republicans losing the dominance they have enjoyed since 1994, when they captured a majority of the governorships.

Even if they offset their losses by picking off some Democratic-held states, Republicans worry that they might trade big states for small -- losing seats in major states such as Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania while winning in places such as Alaska, Hawaii and New Hampshire.

But the budget problems have increased the GOP's chances of taking the biggest prize of all, California. Gov. Gray Davis (D) and the legislature are still trying to reach agreement on a budget plan that will close a $23 billion deficit for the coming two years.

Davis's opponent, conservative business executive and first-time candidate Bill Simon Jr., has problems of his own that could frustrate GOP hopes of winning the seat. But Davis has made little progress this year in overcoming the doubts that voters have expressed about his leadership.

The biggest problem Republicans face nationwide is replacing a class of governors who dominated their states in the 1990s, starting with President Bush and including Wisconsin's Tommy G. Thompson, now secretary of health and human services; Pennsylvania's Tom Ridge, now Bush's homeland security adviser; and Michigan's John Engler, who is term-limited.

The successors to Bush and Thompson -- Govs. Rick Perry of Texas and Scott McCallum of Wisconsin -- are the only two of 11 incumbent Republicans in competitive races at this point. Democrats hope to offer serious challenges to New York Gov. George E. Pataki and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, but they must get through combative primaries first.

Seven other GOP incumbents, in Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada and Ohio, look safe, according to strategists from both parties.

Republicans, however, have to defend 12 seats where their incumbents are leaving office, and all but one or two of those are expected to be competitive. Democrats have their best shots at picking up seats in Michigan, New Mexico and Rhode Island, and Republican candidates are struggling in many other states.

In Illinois, for example, GOP candidate Jim Ryan took the extraordinary step last week of calling for the resignation of Republican Gov. George Ryan (no relation), whose scandal-plagued administration threatens to end three decades of Republican control. In Tennessee, a bitter fight over taxes and the budget has left Gov. Don Sundquist (R) a virtual pariah in his own party and enhanced Democratic prospects in a state that otherwise has been trending Republican. In Pennsylvania, former Philadelphia mayor Edward G. Rendell won an unexpectedly easy victory in the Democratic primary and is a slight favorite to defeat Republican Attorney General Mike Fisher.

In Massachusetts, Acting Gov. Jane Swift (R) yielded to businessman Mitt Romney to give her party a better chance of holding that seat in November. After 12 years of GOP control, Democrats remain optimistic about winning, but they say Romney will be far tougher to defeat than Swift would have been.

Republicans also face competitive races in states they have often taken for granted, such as Arizona -- where demographic changes aid the Democrats -- and Kansas and Wyoming. Democrats also see an outside chance of winning South Dakota, in part because of the resources being diverted to its Senate race.

Democrats, however, now have more of their own seats to worry about. They face competitive races in four of the six states where the incumbent is retiring. They are Alaska, where the GOP is favored because of the candidacy of Sen. Frank H. Murkowski; Hawaii, which nearly went Republican four years ago; New Hampshire, where Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is running for the Senate; and Vermont, where Gov. Howard Dean (D) is retiring to run for president. Republicans also hope to turn normally Democratic Maryland into a contest.

Republicans once had hopes of taking a Democratic seat in Oregon, but those chances appear to have faded because the GOP nominee is viewed as too conservative for the state.

Among Democratic incumbents, only Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes seems secure. Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman could be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the country, according to strategists, while South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges is in a toss-up battle against former House member Mark Sanford, who won a contested GOP primary last month.

In the two states with exiting independents, Democrats are favored in Maine while Minnesota's race is a three-way free-for-all.

Both Democrats and Republicans once rated Iowa's Vilsack as among the nation's safest incumbents. But that was before a series of pessimistic budget forecasts.

Vilsack finally reached agreement with GOP legislators on a fiscal 2003 budget, but his opponent has made Vilsack's management a central campaign theme.

"He should have recognized the problem earlier and taken action," said Gross, who was chief of staff to former Iowa governor Terry Branstad during hard economic times in the 1980s.

Vilsack said no governor in the country was prepared for the sudden drop in revenue that hit the states earlier this year. Iowa paid its bills on time, he said, while increasing spending on education, preserving some of the funds in reserve accounts, not raising taxes and phasing out taxes on utility bills.

But Vilsack won't be joining his fellow governors in Boise this weekend. Like others in tight races, he has chosen to stay home. Besides, Vilsack said, he can't afford the trip.

"It's hard to ask department directors not to take out-of-state travel," he said, "and then go to Idaho."