On Economy, Voter Ambivalence is Candidates' Opportunity

Long before the 1992 election, Fred Malek, a Washington businessman who served as former president George H.W. Bush's campaign manager for the 1988 election, warned his former boss that "assuming the Iraqi problem is resolved in 1991, and we are otherwise at peace, our economic health will be, as usual, the principal measure by which voters will judge you in 1992."

Bill Clinton and his advisers had devised a strategy to exploit Bush's perceived weakness. Fair or not, Clinton successfully defined his opponent as an out-of-touch elitist, oblivious to the suffering his policies had caused Americans.

Twelve years later, another President Bush faces declining or stagnating poll numbers after a long period of sustained popularity and amid economic recovery. His father's bid for reelection came in the third quarter of positive growth in Gross Domestic Product. The current president has had about two and a half years of GDP growth.

But bad news out of Iraq, a lingering public perception of economic anxiety and Democratic campaign strategy have been keeping Bush from converting good economic news into higher poll numbers.

Jim Jordan, the former campaign manager for Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry who now coordinates communications for a major group of Democratic-leaning political organizations, has been furiously spinning reporters that the economy is faltering.

Some quotes from a recent mass e-mail he blasted at reporters:

Kerry, taking a page from the playbook that worked so well for Clinton, will spend the next couple of weeks concentrating on trying to convince voters that Bush's economic policies have hurt America.

Democrats say sharp increases in the cost of energy, health care, college tuition and other items have undermined the recovery, and that the administration's massive deficit spending threatens the long-term economic security of the nation and will eventually force up interest rates—a point with which Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan agrees. High interest rates could more than wipe out the benefits of any recent tax cuts, Democrats warn.

Republicans are firing back that Kerry is a prophet of doom and gloom. This line of attack is not meant to be a substantive challenge to Kerry's policies as much as a criticism of his leadership style. Kerry is the pessimist, they say, and Bush -- like Reagan -- is the eternal optimist.

Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman said Wednesday on a conference call with reporters that job growth was the fastest in 20 years, that home ownership was at an all-time high and that consumer confidence was growing.

"While the President is articulating his optimistic vision for the future, John Kerry is on a misery and pessimism tour, talking about the Great Depression, and talking down the economy. But his 1970s rhetoric isn't going to stop the economic progress of America today."

Without naming Kerry, Bush echoed Mehlman's criticism of pessimists at a speech Thursday to the National Federation of Independent Business.

"Some of the pessimists looked at this economic progress and claimed that the American families are still falling behind," Bush said in prepared remarks. "Well, they didn't offer much evidence, because, in fact, as our economy has come back, American families are doing a lot better. Higher growth and higher productivity are leading to better-paying jobs across America."