After 'Idol,' Straining for a High Note

Record industry insiders point out that while "Idol" offers contestants invaluable publicity, hit singles have an ineffable calculus all their own. Talent and exposure are necessary components, but more subjective qualities like charisma and determination matter almost as much.

Unlike conventional artists who spend years honing their craft and pursuing a record deal, many contestants find themselves on "Idol" almost capriciously. (Studdard, for example, intended only to keep an auditioning friend company but wound up trying out himself.) Many contestants aren't particularly interested in making records; others simply aren't seasoned enough, or are still unsure what style of music they want to sing. Any ex-contestant working cabarets and state fairs, the thinking goes, is exactly where he should be.

"The whole process of signing, marketing and promoting an artist is an extremely expensive one," notes 19 Entertainment Vice President Tom Ennis. "To make that leap of faith, [labels] don't just do that because someone came in ninth on 'American Idol.' If the economics of the record business were a little different, I'm sure they all could do well."

While most ex-contestants haven't landed record contracts, the chart performance of Locke's and Gracin's singles suggests that anyone who has can expect at least a moderate level of success. Factor in sales figures for Clarkson, Aiken, Studdard and the countless contestant compilation albums, and the show's track record looks even more impressive.

The first CD by first-season runner-up Justin Guarini, overlooked amid the hype surrounding Clarkson, and the cringe-inducing movie "From Justin to Kelly" have been the only "Idol"-related flops so far. Guarini has since been dropped from his record label.

"Overall music sales are down. If you're a record executive, you have to be happy with all the cumulative success [of "Idol" product]," says David Adelson, music correspondent for E! Entertainment television. Adelson says that while it wouldn't hurt for the show to establish a deep roster of hitmakers, that isn't necessary to continue its popularity. "It's a TV program before anything else. The primary priority is to create a hit television show. Everything else is gravy."

Industry experts -- and many of the ex-contestants interviewed -- cite La Toya London, who was voted off the show May 12, as the 2004 finalist most likely to succeed. If she or any of the ex-"Idol" candidates, who rival Miss America contestants in their ability to stay upbeat and on message, are worried they're more likely to become the next Kimberly Caldwell (currently representing "AI" perfume at JC Penney) than the next Kimberley Locke, they're not saying.

Achieving stardom "all depends on who you have backing you and who supports your ideas and vision," says Gray. "But 'American Idol' is a great vehicle. I'm so glad I had it."