Iraq: Post Election

Iraq's election date is quickly approaching. While most of the election discussion has focused on terrorism and boycott prevention, little has been said about the election's possible outcomes.

Brett McGurk, former legal adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, believes that more focus should be placed on the post-election government structure. He notes that efforts should be made to secure the election process, but he emphasizes Iraq's need for a secure roadmap after the process.

Brett McGurk was live online at 2:00 ET on Friday, Jan. 7, to discuss the outlook for a post-election Iraq.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

_____________

Brett McGurk: Hello and thank you for your interest. I want to state at the outset that I no longer work for the U.S. Government in any capacity. So the views expressed here are my own. With that, I'm happy to take your questions.

_______________________

Kennesaw, Ga.: Mr. McGurk: Many thanks, first of all, for doing this chat. Your Op-Ed in the Post today was more helpful than many news stories in helping us understand what people in Iraq will be voting for.

How well do you think they understand this? Throughout its life CPA was much better at speaking to its American audience than to the one in Iraq, a function perhaps of the administration's preoccupation with domestic politics. In any event, both news reports from Iraq and some Iraqi weblogs suggest a degree of confusion as to what these elections will decide. Moreover American officials now seem at pains to reassure Sunni Arabs that they will be represented in the new government whether they participate in the elections or not, a dubious proposition especially in view of the zeal of Sunni Arab terrorists to murder Shiite and Kurdish Iraqis.

I apologize for the lengthy addendum, but the question is important. Do most Iraqis understand clearly what will be decided on January 30?

Brett McGurk: This is a good question. And I do not believe that most Iraqis understand precisely how the elections work or how the new government will be structured after elections. I would not fault CPA for this, however. The electoral system was designed, largely, by the UN electoral assistance team. It was an impressive group with deep experience in transitional elections in a post-conflict environment. The UN team did an excellent job in the spring and early summer traveling the country and telling Iraqis about the new independent electoral commission, among other things. As an aside -- the UN expected 300 nominations for that commission, but received more than 1,800 nominations from all over Iraq. That was a tangible sign of interest and excitement about the process (as well as success in getting the word out).

Since the handover on June 28, however, public relations and outreach to explain the process have been lacking. But the electoral commission is working very hard, especially in the past few weeks, to correct this. Television stations like Al-Iraqya, moreover, are doing programs devoted entirely to elections. So I think by January 30 there will be a solid basis of understanding. It would help of course if Arab satellite channels like Al Jazeera devoted some time to elections (what does the ballot look like, what happens when you get into a voting booth, etc.), rather than beheadings and violence. But I'm not holding my breath.

_______________________

Laurel, Md.: Does Iraq have anything comparable to states or similar subdivisions? Are their regional elections of any kind going on January 30th? Or is it a nationwide-only election?

Brett McGurk: Another good question. There are actually three elections taking place on January 30. There is a nationwide election for the National Assembly, which is often discussed. But there are also local elections in all 18 provinces (or "governorates") as well as an election for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north. The logistical difficulties of pulling this off are enormous -- even in a country at peace with strong democratic traditions. Pulling it off in a post-conflict environment, with a despicable enemy that murders election officials, and in a country that for thirty years has known nothing but tyranny and oppression, may appear impossible to outside observers. But it is a challenge that is being met as we speak.

I spoke today with a friend on the electoral commission. He told me a story that resonated with much of what I saw in Iraq. On the day the two electoral workers were killed on Haifa Street (the picture everyone saw) other workers immediately went out to Haifa Street to continue with the work. That, to me, is the story of Iraq -- a resiliency and confidence in the long-term future that we cannot appreciate stateside.

_______________________

Annandale, Va.: Are voting rights (i.e. age, gender) in Iraq the same as in the United States?

Brett McGurk: Voting eligibility is set forth in the Transitional Administrative Law and the Electoral Law (CPA Order 96). You must be an Iraqi citizen and born before December 31, 1986. Eligibility is universal regardless of gender, religion, ethnicity, etc. Worth mentioning is the role of women in the electoral process itself. The TAL stated that the electoral system must "aim to achieve the goal" of at least 25% representation by women in the National Assembly (the body to be elected on January 30). The UN after traveling the country and gathering consensus on these issues sought to require that every party offering a slate for the election must list a woman candidate at every third position. The Iraqi Governing Council agreed and the requirement was written into the Electoral Law. What this means is that the elections will result in approximately 30% female representation -- in the first freely-elected assembly in the region no less.

I was skeptical about this -- given the fierce debate on the more moderate TAL language. But every party now registered (more than 200) has met the requirement. And of the Iraqi women I met in Baghdad, those elected will surely make their voices known in the new assembly.

What do I mean by "slates" above? Seats in the assembly are allocated on a proportional basis to registered parties. A party must submit a slate of up to 275 names -- and the names cannot be changed or rearranged. So a party that wins ten seats will have its first ten names become representatives. And of those ten, three will be women.

_______________________

Glenmont, Md.: Will the result of the election change the status of Arab-occupied Kurdistan or will the Kurds finally gain some degree of freedom from the Arabs?

Brett McGurk: The election will not change the status of the Kurdish region. The region enjoys a good deal of autonomy already -- and the two Kurdish parties are unified and running on a single slate. They will surely work to ensure autonomy and local control in the post-election, constitution-drafting process. This is where institutional design becomes so critical -- and why an entity like the presidency council (which I mention in the piece) must be understood to assess what will happen after the elections. Appointments to that body, and its subsequent appointment of the prime minister, should signal where power lies in the new Iraq.

_______________________

Harrisburg, Pa.: Re: "That is why the claims of Sunni groups that advocate a boycott of elections must be vigorously rejected."

Mr. McGurk, what good does it do to tell the readers of the Washington Post this type of advice since we don't get to vote in the election? With all due respect, we have problems enough in this country with large numbers of people who don't vote without going abroad to look for additional examples.

Brett McGurk: My aim was to give some context to anyone interested in the election process. If you read the coverage I'm sure you have seen Sunni groups claim the system is rigged against them. Others say Shiites seek to impose an Islamic-theocracy. Yet there is little mention of what the government will look like after the elections, how powers will be shared, and so on.

In any event, the Washington Post's influence stretches beyond the United States. Adnan Pachachi called for a delay in the elections last week -- and he chose the pages of the Washington Post to do it. Going back to the first question, it is important for Iraqis to understand the process and that democracy does not mean (only) rule of the majority. On that score, it is important to explain -- and keep explaining -- the institutional mechanisms for how power will be expressed and divided after the elections. These are not intuitive concepts.

_______________________

Vienna, Va.: Thanks for your time. From your article: "The country is simply too diverse and intermingled for one group to peacefully control more than a small fraction of territory." From this, you claim that all parties will be willing to participate in democracy. Isn't this really a clear sign that civil war is coming and the elections will actually spark this?

Brett McGurk: The talk of civil war is greatly overblown. First, it is too simplistic to think of Iraq as three groups of competing factions. Those who seek to wreck the transition process stress the distinctions, but there is a real Iraqi identity that transcends the differences.

Second, most Iraqi leaders are responsible and seek peace and prosperity in a unified Iraq. I saw this with my own eyes in the Iraqi Governing Council -- tremendous compromise and cooperation between Iraqi principals of all groups (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmen, Christians). The IGC was much maligned, but its members are poised to do very in the elections (the two main Shiite parties, for example, are well represented on the unified Shiite slate, and were active participants in the IGC). The new interim government similarly shares power effectively, and the statements of Ayatollah Sistani are revolutionary in their call for a generally secular political order, albeit with deep respect for the Islamic traditions within Iraq.

Third, those trying to spark the civil war (a mix of former Baathists and Al Qaeda-linked jihadists) have no coherent agenda and lack widespread support. How do I know they lack widespread support? Because they are murdering and torturing Iraqis -- hardly the sign of a popular movement. Look at what our Marines found in Fallujah: torture chambers, execution cells, every mosque a fortress and ammunition depot. This is not a resistance movement. One remarkable statistic from post-Saddam Iraq is that there have been few revenge killings. Shiites have not taken revenge on their former tormentors. Nor have the Kurds. Nor have there been calls for revenge after horrific attacks like the Ashura bombings in March 2004 (with hundreds of civilians killed), or the earlier assassinations of Shiite clerics like Muhammad Baqer Al-Hakim and Abdul Al-Khoei.

In short, and I'm sorry I went so long, there is a strong commitment to peace in Iraq. It may be hard to see or understand from the outside, but it exists -- and I believe it will overcome the terrorists. I have no illusions, of course -- but I do not think civil war is a primary concern.

_______________________

Wheaton, Md.: Whether or not the Sunnis boycott, won't they still, most likely, lose and declare the election invalid?

Brett McGurk: Again, it is not accurate to speak of the Sunnis in a monolithic voice -- "they," etc. I saw a statement recently by Lucius D. Clay, the military governor in the US Zone of occupied Germany from 1947-49. He said on a return trip to the United States (and I'm paraphrasing): "I'm constantly asked about the German Mind -- how does it feel about the occupation and the future of Germany? My answer is that the German Mind is like any other mind -- complicated, with a range of opinions on every imaginable issue."

The same can be said for Iraq. Will some Sunnis reject the results? Probably. But others will not. Note that more than 200 political parties have registered for the January elections -- representing Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Communists, Islamists, Monarchists, Secularists, and so on. And most lists are themselves quite diverse. The United Iraqi Alliance is commonly referred to as the "unified Shiite list," but it contains a number of prominent Sunnis as far as I understand. You can get a sense of this diversity at an Iraqi blog called Healing Iraq. The blogger had a long post last week on the parties, their candidates and platforms. The Council of Foreign Relations also posts good information on the progress of elections and political development.

The key here is that the process is moving forward. The rejectionists resorting to violence, seeking to rule by intimidation (displaying mutilated bodies in the streets, etc.), have no future in Iraq.

_______________________

Vancouver, Canada: I am wondering if the people in Iraq really have a deep desire for democracy. I have heard Iraqi people express their longings for peace, security, sovereignty, and jobs, but very little is said about democracy. Is there a grass-roots democracy movement in Iraq? Who are the local Iraqi champions of democracy? Is there anyone who has the popular support to inspire people to strive for this new political paradigm? It seems that democracy in Iraq is an American dream, not an Iraqi dream. Don't the Iraqi people need to be passionate about democracy in order for it to have a chance to succeed?

Brett McGurk: On the evening before a senior U.S. official with long experience in the region left Iraq after being in country six months, I asked him what he thought about the prospect of democracy. He was optimistic solely on the basis of what he saw with respect to political growth and development. The political parties in Iraq are remarkably vibrant, considering what the country must overcome. So is there a deep desire for democracy? If by democracy you mean a deep desire to live in peace with one another, and have the opportunity to govern themselves peacefully, with transparency and accountability -- absolutely.

Sixty years ago, your question could have been asked about India, Japan, Germany, and so on. Is there a Nehru-like figure in Iraq? We will see. I think such figures are now emerging.

_______________________

Williamston, Mi.: Regarding the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr: There have been many media reports that Sadr's followers are on the electoral lists and will likely therefore be part of the government. This provides legitimacy and influence to an insurgent -- but it also involves that constituency in the government, which could have a civilizing effect. Good or bad?

Brett McGurk: That Sadr has joined the political process should probably be seen as a positive development -- yes. Recall in August this appeared highly unlikely, but Sadr was soundly defeated by the US Army and Marines in Najaf. I still wish Sadr would answer for the Al-Khoei murder -- there is strong evidence that the murder was a Mahdi Army operation, but nobody has been held to account.

_______________________

Chicago, Il.: How can you simply state that the insurgents lack support? They may lack support amongst the Shiites and Kurds, but they clearly have the support of a significant portion of the Sunni population? How else would they be able to continue their attacks despite the presence of American forces? Don't you think it's naive to sell the panacea of elections?

Brett McGurk: To take your last point. I am not pollyannaish about elections or anything else in Iraq. The elections are one more step in a long process. (There are actually three nationwide elections in the coming year: the elections this month, then a nationwide constitutional referendum, then a new election under a permanent constitution.) But the elections are a vital step for the Iraqis to emerge from the shadow of tyranny and forge a consensual government consistent with their own deep traditions and history.

We can simply disagree on the support given to the insurgents. Yes, there is some. But I do not think it's a "significant portion of the Sunni population" -- there is little evidence of that. Intimidation and fear remain major problems throughout the Sunni-dominated provinces.

_______________________

Hillsdale, Mi.: I agree that the constitutional structure of the new Iraqi regime is a key question. It seems to me that the basic problem will be to do two things: enable the three main groups and many subgroups to enjoy institutionalized representation, while also requiring some elements of any Iraqi government to find broader constituencies. In other words, `federalism plus'--with the `plus' being certain offices elected nationally. Unicameral parliamentarism would be too diffuse and faction-rewarding, but one supreme executive would be, well, Saddam-ish.

What are your thoughts on this?

Brett McGurk: Good comments. I think the TAL structure is a decent baseline. You should read it -- few do, but you can get a sense of the breakdown in these issues by studying the document. A benchmark for what happens after elections, is what happens to some of the more controversial parts of the TAL. Article 61(c), for example, allows 2/3 of voters in three or more provinces to reject the constitution in the referendum, even if it carries a majority nationwide. Sistani has said he rejects that provision. But the Kurds see it as necessary insurance for their role in the permanent framework. This will need to be worked-out in the coming months.

_______________________

Brett McGurk: My time is up. Thank you for your questions. And I am sorry I could not get to all of them.

_______________________