Numbers Don't Show Big Picture

Census Rank Slips, But Growth Rages On

Loudoun County is no longer the fastest-growing county in the nation, according to new figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

But some county officials said losing that title means little in a county that is being transformed by development as never before.

Although the Census Bureau reported last week that Loudoun was the nation's third- fastest-growing county between July 1, 2003, and July 1, 2004 -- behind smaller Flagler County in Florida and Kendall County in Illinois -- other census numbers show that Loudoun's population growth still leads the nation on a sustained basis.

Between April 1, 2000, and July 1, 2004, Loudoun's population jumped by 69,557, to 239,156, a 41 percent increase. That's the fastest county growth in the nation during that period.

"Because we've dropped back to number three, it doesn't mean we don't face development pressures for all kinds of growth," said Robert M. Gordon, a lawyer and the head of a county zoning advisory board. Gordon ran for chairman of the Board of Supervisors in 2003. "Every indication I can see is, whether the economy is booming or the economy's soft, Loudoun is going to face intense growth pressure for the next 20 years."

County officials said the drop in Loudoun's yearly census ranking was an expected outgrowth of the county's booming population. As the county gets bigger, the annual growth -- 49 new residents a day multiplied by 365 -- translates into smaller percentage increases.

"We're going to be sliding down the list as we get bigger," said county demographer Clark Draper.

But that doesn't mean that the county's growth is slowing or that there are indications of any downturn to come. One in four new residents in the Washington area moves to Loudoun, and developers are only now beginning to build some homes approved for construction in the past few years.

"They got their approvals a number of years ago, and they just waited for the market to catch up to them," Draper said. "You start seeing ones approved years ago start to come on line."

Draper said 36,000 homes have been approved but not built. That does not include tens of thousands more new homes allowed under current county plans. In another indication of the complicated math of Loudoun's struggle over growth, developers have applied to add tens of thousands more homes to county plans near Dulles International Airport.

Add to that tally the potential upsurge in housing in the county's rural west in the wake of a Virginia Supreme Court ruling throwing out strict building limits there, and the magnitude of the changes that could be coming to Loudoun in the coming decades becomes clear.

That has implications for everything from environmental preservation and economic growth to the hefty taxes needed to pay for new schools and teachers for the 3,500 new students who arrive every year and for other expensive public facilities and services.