President Is Still Mum on Agenda For Second Term

But White House senior adviser Karl Rove has told Republican allies that, in the 2000 campaign, Bush suffered from having little new to say in September and October, and that the 2004 campaign plan was drawn up to avoid that mistake.

In 2000, say his advisers, Bush had a prominent political name but little definition as a potential president. Setting out a substantive agenda that defined his claim to compassionate conservatism was an important strategic goal. "The definitional phase of a campaign is the springtime, and the biggest mistake Al Gore made was to allow us to define ourselves," a senior adviser said, adding, "We weren't going to make the mistake we thought Al Gore made."

Which is why, instead of offering his own agenda, Bush has poured tens of millions dollars into television ads attacking Kerry, a strategy they believe was successful in casting Kerry as a flip-flopper, although Kerry and Democratic strategists say it accomplished far less than Bush had hoped.

But Bush advisers said even if they had tried to present a second-term agenda, news from Iraq would have overwhelmed it, and they point to the president's job training initiatives, which have received little attention, as evidence. They also said the president has had to struggle to change public perceptions that the economic recovery has not reached down to help average Americans.

"I think there's a general feeling that we're getting those things right," one Bush adviser said. "But that's a platform on which to build. We have to get those things right, and we have to go from there."

The longer Bush has waited to lay out his agenda, the more that has triggered discussion among policy analysts about what Bush should propose. Will he attempt to run again as a compassionate conservative? Will he claim the mantle of reform by tackling such major issues as the tax code and health care? Or will he frame his agenda under the rubric of an ownership society, designed to appeal to younger voters, by pushing not only Social Security accounts but also other tax-based savings programs for health, education and retirement?

The broadest consensus among analysts is that the president will resurrect his call to alter Social Security by allowing individuals to create personal savings accounts with a portion of their payroll taxes. Early in his presidency, Bush appointed a commission that returned with a series of policy options. But the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, and political fears among Republicans on Capitol Hill effectively dashed any chance for action.

Some outside analysts said the federal budget's imbalance will complicate Bush's desire to change Social Security, particularly if he continues to push to make his tax cuts permanent.

"If the administration is reelected . . . it will face a choice between making the tax cuts permanent and pushing Social Security reform," said Peter R. Orszag of the Brookings Institution. He noted that making the tax cuts permanent and fixing the alternative minimum tax would cost about $1.5 trillion, almost exactly the transition costs of setting up personal accounts in Social Security.

Stewart M. Butler of the Heritage Foundation made a similar point about the impact on the budget of making the tax cuts permanent. "There's got to be a real strategy to get entitlements under control," he said.

There is far less consensus on what else Bush should offer for a second term. On health care, Bush has a smorgasbord from which to choose. With Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), a former trial lawyer, on the Democratic ticket, medical liability reform will likely climb higher in the president's list of priorities.

Beyond that, Bush's outside allies expect him to focus on restraining costs through information technology initiatives, a project favored by Gingrich, and by focusing on the cost of prescription drugs. Some Republicans expect Bush to focus more of his attention on the problem of the uninsured, a major initiative of Kerry's.

Bush allies doubt that he will attempt to alter Medicare. Having enacted a prescription drug benefit, several analysts said, makes the chances of revision less likely. "It's too divisive, and Bush wants to say he's fixed Medicare," said Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute. "And they've given away the ice cream, so it's tough to go back and say eat your spinach."

On education, Bush succeeded in enacting his signature issue from 2000, the No Child Left Behind Act, and though that remains controversial, the next frontier appears to be higher education. Kerry has made proposals in this area, and one domestic policy expert close to the White House said he expects Bush to fill out in more detail his ideas for preparing high school graduates for college and making college more affordable.

Bush advisers discount the idea that they have waited too long to unveil a second-term agenda. They note that President Bill Clinton did not unveil his theme of a "bridge to the 21st century" until his convention in 1996. But they say they recognize that victory depends on Bush's ability to convince voters that he has an agenda superior to Kerry's.

"Incumbents who win always run prospectively rather than retrospectively," said Matthew Dowd, senior adviser at Bush's campaign committee. "There are things you have to deal with retrospectively, but in the end it's going to be a prospective election."