The numbers started relatively low on the day of the tragedy -- 10,000, 13,000 -- but they skyrocketed rapidly. Two weeks after the tsunami devastated vast swaths of South Asia, the death toll was at a staggering 150,000 -- and still counting. In fact, that counting may never come to an end, says disaster education and response expert Rocky Lopes in his Sunday Outlook piece, The Futile Search for a Hard Number, even though at some point, officials will declare a final death toll. Tallying the missing and the dead is a staggering task after any disaster, but it's particularly hard in this case, for many reasons: so many of the affected countries had no accurate population counts; entire families and villages were wiped out, leaving no survivors who could report who might be missing; countless bodies were lost to the waves and may never be retrieved. So how do you count when you don't know what you're counting?
Lopes, former manager of disaster education for the American Red Cross and now an independent consultant specializing in public education, training and outreach, will be online Monday, Jan. 10, at 10 a.m. ET to answer that question and others about the huge disaster relief effort going on in South Asia.
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Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.
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Rocky Lopes: Thank you for the opportunity to have a chat to discuss the article in Sunday's Outlook section of the post, regarding the challenges in determining a tally of those who were killed by the tsunami of December 26, 2004. I welcome questions related to that issue.
If you are concerned about missing family or loved-ones, consider visiting this web site published by the FBI which provides links to official sources of information on those missing and ways to try to find out about them:
http://www.fbi.gov/tsvictims.htm
If you would like to find more information about the tsunami and what various organizations around the world are doing in response, the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center in Boulder, Colorado, has assembled a comprehensive list of Web-based resources. Visit: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards to get to that list of resources.
I now welcome your questions.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
The many emergency workers now stationed in the affected areas are the true unsung heroes in the aftermath of this killer tsunami. How vital will their cumulative reporting of deaths be when the final count is tallied?
Rocky Lopes: Emergency workers involved in providing relief to survivors are different from inspectors sent by governments to confirm casualties. Certainly, the roles of both types of workers are critically important. Those designated by governments to confirm deaths and the fate of those missing will ultimately provide the "ground truth" that governments will use in official reporting.
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Olney, Md.:
News reports say that the tsunami was caused by a very large earthquake. Could there be more earthquakes and tsunamis in the affected region?
Rocky Lopes: Yes, the area where the tsunami happened has been seismically active for a very long time. If you check out the USGS web site, you'll find that hundreds of aftershocks, which are smaller earthquakes, have happened since the main shock of December 26. If an aftershock is large enough, it could trigger another tsunami, so
that's why it's important for everyone in the affected region to keep aware of the environment, and if they feel a strong earthquake and are near the coast, to move away toward higher ground after the shaking stops as quickly as they can, even if there is no warning given. Officials may not have time to get a warning out, as was observed on December 26.
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Washington, D.C.:
When will the death toll be final?
Rocky Lopes: You ask a very good question. For the tsunami disaster, which affected so many nations, the final death toll will be determined country-by-country, some sooner than others. For this event, most experts are saying that a final death toll may never be known, as some bodies may never be recovered and in some countries, they have certain very lengthy periods of time before issuing a death certificate for someone who is listed as missing.
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Washington, D.C.:
Are dead bodies still being found and how are those that were washed out to sea being accounted for?
Rocky Lopes: Yes, news reports indicate that dead bodies are still being found as debris is cleared away. Those washed out to sea are being accounted for by attempting to reconcile reports of missing persons. Eventually, governments will issue death certificates for missing persons, but that can take a very long time. It's each country's decision when to convert "missing" to "dead" and issue a death certificate.
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Wheaton, Md.:
Is it true that some of the affected nations actually refused help from Israel? Doesn't that show that these governments find it more important to show hatred of Israel than to help their own people?
Rocky Lopes: Each nation determines what help they will accept from any source. You have probably read as I have that India has refused international assistance, saying that while they appreciate it, they feel that they have sufficient resources in their own country to provide assistance.
I am not aware of other nations' acceptance or refusal of assistance. Some countries are providing assistance through the United Nations, so if direct assistance is refused, they can work through the U.N., which is one of the many reasons the U.N. was established.
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Silver Spring, Md.:
Who is responsible for the "official" death toll count? Each government? The U.N.? Some other agency?
Rocky Lopes: As it says in my article, each country, as a sovereign nation, is responsible for the death toll count for its own country. There is no international organization that provides this type of report.
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Reston, Va.:
Has the American Red Cross addressed disaster education specifically for tsunamis?
Rocky Lopes: As I do not work for the Red Cross, I can not speak for the organization. Please contact your local Red Cross chapter or visit www.redcross.org. The Red Cross, like other organizations, uses "Talking About Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages" as a basis for information on disaster education, including tsunamis. You can find that public domain Guide on the web at:
http://www.disastereducation.org/guide.html
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Washington, D.C.:
Why concentrate on the dead? What is being done for the living and how many living victims are there in this tragedy?
Rocky Lopes: The article I was asked to write was about the situation on the varying death toll. The news reports on the number of people who are injured also vary greatly, and will continue to change as more people who require medical treatment are found, as well as those who were injured recover.
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Layhill, Md.:
This morning (Jan. 10), two weeks after the tsunami, news reports on the number killed and injured by the tsunami still vary
widely. Why is that happening?
Rocky Lopes: News reports may provide official counts from governments, but may also include estimates based on what news reporters in affected areas are hearing. These estimates may not be reflective of the actual count. As I said in my article, it is very hard to reconcile lists of missing persons with lists of confirmed dead, and that process for this scale of disaster will take months, if not years.
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Washington, D.C.:
Rocky: You guest lectured in a class at GW that I was
in early 2004 and you said that there is not one set
of standard information that people get for
hurricanes. If you travel down I-95, each community
has different info you revealed. With tsunami's and
other disasters, how can this be changed? Hawaii
could face a tsunami, but from what I've read, the
lack of baseline education is lacking. What role can/
must the government play?
Rocky Lopes: Standardized information on preparedness is getting better. Since 1990, many more local, state, and federal government agencies as well as private organizations are getting better at standardizing info.
Hawaii actually has had very good tsunami education since the Hilo tsunami of 1946. Their state EMA does a good job in coordinating public education on that issue.
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Rockville, Md.:
News reports on TV show that some countries buried people in mass graves very quickly after the tsunami for fear of spreading
disease. Is that a valid reason to bury people without identifying them first?
Rocky Lopes: Burying bodies in mass graves for fear of spread of disease dates back to the black plague of 1348-1349. When people have been killed in large numbers (such as due to disaster), they are not infectious, and do not need to be buried immediately for that reason.
However, there are some religious faiths that believe in prompt burial, and do not want any delays. But because someone killed by trauma (such as by the tsunami) is not infectious, time can be taken to take photographs, fingerprints, and obtain other identifying information, which later can be used to reconcile lists of missing
persons when forensic experts are able to do their job. Secretary of State Powell indicated during his recent visit to the affected areas that such experts would be needed and he would recommend that they be asked to help.
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Rocky Lopes: We are still learning about the effects of the tsunami and its impact on people who live and visit the affected areas. It is such a tragedy when disasters cause widespread destruction, injuries, and deaths.
The recovery process will take years. Continued support to organizations who are coordinating relief efforts will be needed. If you have made a financial contribution, thank you. If you haven't, it's not too late. Visit web sites of trustworthy and reliable organizations to find out about what they are doing, and consider offering your contributions. Even though news reports will slowly decline, the assistance needed for months and years to come will not.
Thank you for this opportunity to chat. Let's keep everyone affected by this event -- and others that happen every day -- in our thoughts and prayers.
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