Mr. Mubarak's Concession

IT'S NOT YET CLEAR whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak intends to allow a genuinely democratic election for president later this year. But the 76-year-old ruler's dramatic announcement Saturday of a constitutional reform demonstrated, at least, that democratic elections in Iraq and the Palestinian Authority, and pressure from President Bush, have delegitimized the usual routines of Arab autocracy. Until last week the Egyptian leader had been intent on granting himself another six years as president through an uncontested and unmonitored "referendum," a device he has used four times in his 24 years in office. Just last month Mr. Mubarak called proposals to change the system "futile" and jailed a leading proponent of them, Ayman Nour. But with an unprecedented protest movement still growing at home and mounting pressure from the Bush administration, the Egyptian president has been compelled to at least, to take a step toward a democratic system. Now it will be the challenge of Egypt's democracy advocates, and of the United States, to press for a change that will create democracy in substance and not just in name.

The danger of a false reform is great. Mr. Mubarak has already claimed for years that Egypt is a democracy, based on a rubber-stamp parliament dominated by his ruling party and a constitution he overrides through a state of emergency. A nearby Arab autocrat, President Zine Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, promoted a multi-candidate presidential election last year but allowed only token challengers onto a heavily tilted playing field. Egyptian opposition activists believe Mr. Mubarak may have a similar maneuver in mind. Though few details have been made public, it appears that he would limit presidential candidates to those nominated by existing, legally registered political parties, which would exclude the three brave dissidents who have already announced their candidacies. Mr. Mubarak said nothing about lifting his emergency laws, which curtail freedom of speech and the right of assembly. By his rules, one of Egypt's most important political movements, the Muslim Brotherhood, would be excluded from the election, while the most plausible legal candidate -- Mr. Nour -- remains in jail.

Many Egyptians believe Mr. Mubarak could win a more legitimate election, especially if one were held just months from now. Some opposition leaders are demanding that the constitution be changed to limit presidents to two terms, which would ensure the change of regime that Egypt badly needs. But whether or not Mr. Mubarak is a candidate, the Bush administration should join with the democratic opposition in insisting that the reform produce a fair vote and not a charade. That would require more liberal rules for registering parties and candidates, the lifting of emergency laws, access of the opposition to television, and the right to publish newspapers and hold rallies. International monitors could ensure against the fraud that the opposition says has characterized previous Egyptian elections.

For a start, there is an easy way to test whether Mr. Mubarak is serious: If he is, he will release Mr. Nour and allow him to get on with his campaign.