Taken together, the post-convention surveys suggest that if the election were held today, Bush would do about as badly among younger voters as Republican Robert Dole did in 1996 when he lost to incumbent Bill Clinton by 53 percent to 34 percent in this age group. Dubya's dad was more popular with younger voters in both 1988 and 1992: The elder Bush split the young vote in 1988 and lost to Clinton by 9 percentage points in 1992. Of course the Reagan era marked the recent high-water mark for Republicans with younger voters, who gave the Gipper his biggest victory margin of any age group in 1984.
Tyler McLaughlin, 27, of Georgetown, Tex., didn't vote four years ago. He supported Bush during the first years of his presidency. "But after two years of war, I became anti-Bush," said McLaughlin, a project scheduler for a computer firm. "This seemed like a guy . . . who made a decision and won't go back on it."
The latest Post-ABC News survey found that Kerry consistently topped Bush by double-digit margins as the candidate young adults trusted to deal with every major issue, including the economy, Iraq, education and health care. The Democrat also was viewed by substantial margins as best able to handle the campaign against terrorism and taxes, issues in which Bush still had an advantage among all voters.
The issues motivating younger voters are not much different than those on the minds of all Americans. The war in Iraq and the economy lead their list of top voting concerns in recent Post-ABC News surveys -- not surprising because it's young people who are fighting in Iraq and hustling to keep or find jobs in this uncertain economy. Education ranks somewhat higher as a voting issue for young voters, not unexpected either, since many of them are still in college or just out of school.
One surprise: the campaign against terrorism is less of a voting issue for younger voters than for the rest of the country. In the most recent Post-ABC poll, only 9 percent of all 18- to 29-year-olds rated it as their top voting concern compared to 20 percent of all voters.
"The war -- definitely," said Becky Hibma, 24, homemaker, in Dorr, Mich., when asked what her top voting issue is this year.
Hibma says she is concerned about terrorism. She was on her honeymoon at Disney World when the Twin Towers fell. But for her, Iraq is the more immediate and tangible problem. "It could have been handled very differently. We jumped in too quickly .. . . A little more thinking would have been great."
Like many of her friends, she says she's torn between the two candidates. She's "more Bush" at the moment, largely because of the president's leadership after Sept. 11. "But there are days when I totally agree with everything Kerry says."
Pollsters Protest 9-11 Commission Error
While there's plenty of Sept. 11 blame to go around, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) says the 9/11 commission that investigated the terrorist attacks was flat wrong when it made this claim on page 341 of its recent report:
"As best we can determine, neither in 2000 nor in the first eight months of 2001 did any polling organization in the United States think the subject of terrorism sufficiently on the minds of the public to warrant asking a question about it in a major national survey."
Au contraire, says AAPOR President Nancy Belden in a recent statement. A number of major public polls asked questions about international terrorism during that time frame. Some examples:
At the start of the new millennium, CBS News asked: "Would you say you personally are very concerned about a terrorist attack in the United States, or not? Would you say you are somewhat concerned about a terrorist attack in the United States or not at all concerned?" Responses: 37 percent very concerned, 39 percent somewhat concerned, 22 percent not at all concerned.
As President Bush took office in January 2001, Newsweek asked: "Which one of the following do you think should be Bush's top defense and national security priority? Should his top priority be: Developing a high-tech missile defense system to protect the United States from nuclear attack (34 percent); reconfiguring US military forces so they can move more quickly to deal with crisis situations around the world (29 percent); or improving our ability to identify and counteract terrorist threats (31 percent)?"
And in May 2001, the Pew Research Center asked: "Do you think that international terrorism is a major threat, a minor threat, or not a threat to the well being of the United States?" Prescient answer: 64% major threat, 27% minor threat, 4% not a threat.
