Rivalries, Divisions Take Toll on Taliban

An Afghan boy sells traditional Afghani bread in Kabul, where three U.N. workers were kidnapped last month. They have not been released. (Gurinder Osan -- AP)

A third contributing factor might be far more germane to the Taliban's future; there are growing signs of a serious, three-way split within a once hierarchical movement dominated by a single religious leader.

The first indications of a split came soon after the Taliban was ousted from power in late 2001. Wahid Mojdah, an Afghan court official who worked in the Taliban foreign ministry, said some fighters became active in the armed resistance to the new government headed by President Hamid Karzai. Others began cooperating with authorities and some fled to Pakistan, hoping to eventually return under an amnesty. The last group is the largest, he said, and includes some ex-ministers.

"There are a lot of them already in touch with the central government," Mojdah said. "They want to find a way to cooperate." Karzai has offered an olive branch to this group, saying they are welcome to return and help rebuild the country, except for a handful who have committed crimes or acts of terrorism.

Recently, Mojdah and others said, there had been a further split among the fighters. Last year, a Taliban commander named Akbar Agha announced he was forming Jaish-e-Muslimeen in a challenge to the rule of Mohammad Omar, the longtime Taliban commander who is being hunted by U.S. troops.

Some sources said Agha was an anti-Soviet fighter in the 1980s and a latecomer to the Taliban. According to several analysts, Agha objected to Omar's attempts to both reorganize the group and put his loyalists in charge of running the insurgency in key provinces. The mainline Taliban accused Agha of indiscipline and corruption.

Agha's group has asserted responsibility for kidnapping the three U.N. workers Oct. 28, a daring, first-ever assault against Westerners in the heavily guarded capital. But Yusufzai, the journalist, said Jaish-e-Muslimeen had used the tactic before, kidnapping several Turkish and Indian highway workers during the last two years. Most were released after a ransom was paid.

Analysts said the new kidnappings, as well as the suicide bombing on a street of tourist handicraft shops, were troubling signs that Jaish-e-Muslimeen and the mainstream Taliban movement might be moving toward tactics inspired by al Qaeda and used against U.S. forces in Iraq. Even during the decade-long fight against Soviet occupation, Afghan fighters never carried out suicide bombings, Afghan observers said.

"There's a saying in Afghanistan: When an Afghan attacks, he first looks around for an escape, an exit," Yusufzai said.

Still, Yusufzai and others said they believed the suicide attack and kidnappings indicated a borrowing of al Qaeda tactics by one group rather than a major new influence on the Afghan conflict. They said mainstream Taliban forces were probably maintaining a low profile, waiting to strike if the new government faltered or foreign troops began to withdraw.

"The majority of the Taliban are inactive," Yusufzai said. "They are not fighting. They are not supporting Karzai or anyone else." But he said there might be as many as several thousand men willing to die, if the Taliban called for their aid.

"The Taliban believe they have time," he said. "They think they can bide their time and wait."