Recent polls show that blacks are more likely than whites to oppose gay marriage. As my colleague Darryl Fears reported in The Washington Post just before the November election, "A study by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed that since 2000, black Protestants have become far less likely than other Protestant groups to believe that gays should have equal rights. Black Protestant support for gay rights dipped to a low of 40 percent this year, down from 65 percent in 1996 and 59 percent in 1992."
And there are other indicators of the black electorate's social conservatism. For instance, black support for school vouchers is essentially equal to that of the general population, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a black think tank based in Washington.
So why don't more blacks vote for Republicans?
The differences in voting patterns between blacks and whites could, and perhaps will, fill several columns in the coming months. First, though, let's just acknowledge that there is a significant divide. And nowhere is that divide more pronounced than in the south, which paradoxically is home to America's most conservative blacks.
According to exit polls, 70 percent of whites in the south voted for Bush, while 90 percent of blacks voted for Kerry.
In the deep south states, the divide was even more pronounced. In Alabama, for instance, 80 percent of whites voted for Bush while 91 percent of blacks went for Kerry. The divide was less pronounced nationally, with 58 percent of whites voting for Bush and 88 percent of blacks voting Kerry.
One of the reasons more blacks don't vote Republican, some analysts say, is that when it comes to "values," many black voters remain convinced that the GOP is less moral than the Democratic party on social and economic justice issues. Those issues -- from tax cuts, to school funding, to affirmative action -- combined with the general feeling that Republicans are hostile to the interests of African Americans, outweigh the social values the two groups may share.
Democratic pollster Ron Lester, who is black, said that the black electorate is more religious and more conservative than the black population as a whole, with as many as 80 percent of black voters identifying themselves as church-goers.
"I think there is a lot of compatibility and similarity between a lot of the positions that black folks take in terms of social issues and issues advocated by the Republicans," Lester said. "But it hasn't translated into political gains for the Republican Party because they are viewed as being out of touch with the black community on many levels. And they are viewed as having a real mean-spiritedness about them. Remember back in the 1980s when they were cutting school lunches and child immunizations? And it continues today with the Patriot Act and racial profiling and just a general disconnect."
Issues of racial justice and equality also keep blacks and Republicans from connecting with one another, despite the shared social values, said D'Linell Finley, a political science professor at Auburn University-Montgomery.
"If you look at the Republican economic agenda and most of their policies in regard to racial issues or minority issues as they relate to blacks in particular, Republican's will support the kind of economic and financial programs that work against blacks," Finley said.
Tara Wall, director of outreach communications for the Republican National Committee, said the party is making progress in attracting African American voters. And disaffection with the Democrats on values issues is a big part of it, she said.
Wall notes that Bush increased his percentage of black support by about 2 points nationally in 2004. But more important, she said, is that he nearly doubled his black support in some key battlegrounds states such as Florida and Ohio. Wall said the trend will continue as high-profile conservative blacks such as White continue to make their voices heard.
"I think we are making inroads in growing our base," Wall said. "Black conservatives were heard the most because they weren't going to stand for liberal attacks on the institution of marriage, comparing gay marriage to civil rights. We talked to a lot of the black ministers and they agreed with us on that. I believe this, along with the pocketbook issues is going to continue to grow our base. We are a people of faith, values and family and you can't negate that."
While the numbers are small, polls do indicate some potential problems for the Democrats. The Joint Center poll from last year shows a nine-point decline in the percentage of blacks who view themselves as Democrats and a six-point increase among those who view themselves as Republicans.
The reason for this is unclear. It may be a reaction to social value issues, pocketbook issues or perhaps even foreign policy. Some prominent Democrats such as Donna Brazile have warned that blacks are growing increasingly disenchanted with the party because they feel their votes are being taken for granted. But others, including the Joint Center's David Bositis, argue that the vast majority of blacks don't see the GOP as a viable alternative.
Even if Republicans can figure out a way to woo just some of the socially conservative black Democrats, it will become more difficult for Democrats to win back the White House and the majorities they once enjoyed in Congress and state legislatures. Reggie White may have seemed an exception to the rule, but he was at the tip of an iceberg that both political parties are trying to navigate.
Lester, noting that Bush's black support grew by 2 percentage points, said it is entirely possible that number could grow to say 15 percent with the right candidate, such as Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), who is seen as more connected and empathetic by some black voters.
"You might say 15 percent isn't much," Lester said, "but change happens incrementally."
