"You have to look at Northern Virginia not geographically but economically," said Kevin Madden, the Bush campaign's northeast press secretary. "It's a burgeoning small-business economy. Small businesses would be devastated by Kerry's fiscal policies of rolling back the president's tax cuts."
But the Kerry campaign is pushing hard nonetheless, drawing close to 800 supporters to the opening of its Merrifield headquarters last month, Beeton said. The Northern Virginia operation has five full-time field staff members. Female Democratic leaders recently held a rally for women in Arlington. And Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), has scheduled a visit to Alexandria this week, the campaign said.
Kerry supporters are focusing attention on Hispanic voters, whom they see as a key to a victory in Northern Virginia. The campaign's most visible surrogate is Democrat Walter Tejada, an immigrant from El Salvador elected to the Arlington County Board last year.
"Are we better off than we were four years ago?" Tejada asked a group of Hispanic business leaders and Kerry supporters gathered for lunch in Arlington last week. "The answer is no. There was hope for the Latin community because [the president] spoke some Spanish. . . . But it's gone now."
Voter registration has jumped in the Washington suburbs, although Virginia does not register voters by party, so it is impossible to determine the newcomers' preferences. Prince William counted 184,150 registered voters as of last week, up from 156,435 in 2000, election statistics show, while Loudoun counted 135,592, up from 104,394 four years ago. Registration in Alexandria and Arlington, meanwhile, was largely stagnant.
Prince William Democrats, outnumbered on the county board and in the General Assembly, nonetheless say they are seeing a surge of grass-roots work for Kerry as the election nears, at house meetings and gatherings of the local committee. Board of County Supervisors Chairman Sean T. Connaughton, a Republican, said he believes most newcomers to the fast-growing county are independent or Republican-leaning voters.
"They tend to be more conservative on security issues and on what they expect from government," he said. But he acknowledged that Bush cannot win Prince William by counting on party activists. "We have to work hard for votes," Connaughton said.
But it is Fairfax, the county sandwiched between Arlington and Alexandria to the north and east and Loudoun and Prince William to the west and south, that will be the powerhouse in Northern Virginia on Nov. 2. No Democrat has won statewide office without winning Virginia's most populous county, which accounts for almost two-thirds of the region's registered voters. The county swings left and right, narrowly favoring Bush (with 48 percent of the vote) over Gore (with 47 percent), Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) over Mark L. Earley (R) in 2001 and County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D) over Republican Mychele B. Brickner last year.
"Certainly Fairfax County is in play, much more dramatically than four years ago," said Connolly, who plans to speak as a Kerry surrogate. "Democrats are energized. This is a moderate county, a swing county."
Yvonne Watson, 37, a federal worker, is just the kind of voter Connolly is talking about. Stepping off the commuter train at Burke Centre in central Fairfax, she said she is undecided and "needs to do research" on the candidates' platforms. As with the president, she said, her faith guides many of her decisions. But, she added, that does not necessarily mean she will vote for him.
