Keeping Kerry at a Distance

Still, Democrats face tough challenges in the South, where white voters have shifted in massive numbers to the GOP in the four decades since Strom Thurmond made his pioneering party switch in 1964.

Tenenbaum faces token opposition in the June 8 primary, but several well-known Republicans are battling for the right to oppose her. Polls show former governor David Beasley leading Rep. Jim DeMint, businessman Thomas Ravenel, former state attorney general Charlie Condon and others. A June 22 runoff is almost certain.

Beasley, elected governor in 1994 at age 37, soon alienated many backers by opposing state-run gambling and retreating from his vow to keep the Confederate battle flag flying above the State House dome. Voters ousted him in 1998.

In a recent interview in his Columbia office, Beasley made it clear that if nominated, he will portray Tenenbaum as an unacceptable liberal. Naming a Washington group that backs female candidates who support abortion rights, he said: "Ms. Tenenbaum will not get away with selling herself as one thing when in fact she is another. . . . She is truly an Emily's List liberal."

But Beasley cannot tie himself too tightly to the Bush administration, because many South Carolinians blame the president's free-trade policies for the continued evaporation of textile jobs. "I look forward to convincing the president that he needs to reevaluate our approach on trade," Beasley said.

Political analysts say it is unlikely that Bush will lose southern states such as the Carolinas, but the recent dip in his popularity -- affected by the Iraq prison scandal and the loss of manufacturing jobs -- could take just enough energy from GOP tickets to let Democratic Senate candidates squeak through.

That is what Bowles, a former Clinton White House chief of staff, is counting on in North Carolina, where Sen. John Edwards (D) is leaving after one term. Like Tenenbaum, Bowles -- who lost the 2002 Senate race to Elizabeth Dole (R) -- stresses his independence from the national Democratic Party.

His GOP rival, Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, cannot fully attack that claim just now because he has intraparty problems of his own. Bush recently said he thinks the longstanding system of granting quotas to tobacco growers is adequate, angering many North Carolina farmers seeking a federal buyout that would help them shift to other crops. The comments embarrassed Burr's campaign, and they might become an issue that "could matter at the margin" -- where the race seems destined to be decided -- said Ferrel Guillory of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

As for the other southern races:

• Louisiana, the only state that has never elected a Republican senator, has a crowded field to replace Sen. John Breaux (D). The leading Republican is Rep. David Vitter of Metarie. Democratic contenders include Rep. Chris John, state Treasurer John Neely Kennedy and state Rep. Arthur A. Morrell.

• Florida, where Sen. Bob Graham (D) is retiring after three terms. The Aug. 31 GOP primary features former representative Bill McCollum, who lost to Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in 2002; former U.S. housing secretary Mel R. Martinez; and Florida House Speaker Johnnie Byrd. In polls of Democrats, former state education commissioner Castor leads Rep. Peter Deutsch and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas.

• Georgia voters appear almost certain to replace Sen. Zell Miller (D) with a Republican, analysts say. Rep. Johnny Isakson leads Rep. Mac Collins and businessman Herman Cain in early polls on the GOP candidates. Democratic hopefuls include first-term Rep. Denise L. Majette and entrepreneur Cliff Oxford. The primary is set for July 20.

Researcher Lucy Shackelford contributed to this report.