. . . Or Proving His Resilience?

Meanwhile, the Democrats continue to offer voters little more than tirades and tantrums. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called the president of the United States "incompetent." Al Gore unleashed some of the campaign's most vicious invective when he said last week that the Bush administration has subjected the nation to "disgrace" and "dishonor." Sen. Edward Kennedy, reacting to the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, has equated the U.S. military with Saddam Hussein. And Kerry sniped, "Did the training wheels fall off?" after the president was recently bruised in a bicycle accident. Harsh personal and partisan attacks are not the solutions to problems that voters want to hear, especially in a time of war.

Finally, we are left with the "unknowables" -- the unpredictable factors that can significantly change the outcome of a campaign. Usually, it's scandal or a political blunder. This election year, the unknowables could have potentially far more serious consequences.

What happens if al Qaeda tries to alter the course of our elections after their political "success" in Spain with a major terrorist attack on the United States? What effect will the outcome of the Iraq war and transition have on domestic politics? What happens if Osama bin Laden is captured?

As we learned on Sept. 11, 2001, the world can change completely in minutes. And so could this campaign. Regardless of the potential for unexpected events, Bush is positioned for victory in November. His resolve and determination to win the war against terrorism, his strong economic record and his commitment to education and health care reform will resonate with an electorate looking for leadership and straight talk.

In April 1948, with a job approval rating of 36 percent, Harry Truman wrote to his sister about the many difficult decisions he had made during his presidency, telling her, "I still have a long way to go . . . and it will be a rough road." Then he added, "It can't be any worse than the trail left behind. So don't worry about it."

Winning the war against terrorism is what drives George W. Bush -- not winning in November. In the end, that focus will reelect him.

Author's e-mail:dwinston@winstongroup.net

David Winston is president of the Winston Group, a Republican polling firm.