Many Hurdles Ahead for U.S.

Success of U.N. Draft Resolution May Be Pivotal for Bush

With the introduction of both a new Iraqi government and a new U.N. draft resolution, the Bush administration senses the beginning of the end to its controversial and costly intervention in Iraq. But the relief visible at the White House yesterday may be short-lived, for the United States still faces serious obstacles.

President Bush was almost giddily buoyant during a Rose Garden news conference about Iraq's interim government, heralding the 36 Iraqi appointees as "a team that possesses the talent, the commitment and the resolve to guide Iraq through the challenges that lie ahead." Not since the "Mission Accomplished" photograph aboard the USS Lincoln on May 1 last year, when Bush declared an end to major combat operations in Iraq, has the administration appeared as upbeat about the future.

"This is a very hopeful day for the Iraqi people and the American people. It's going to send a clear signal that terrorists can't win," Bush told reporters, adding that Iraq is now "one step closer to democracy."

Washington hopes the new U.N. draft resolution, circulated just hours after the government was announced, will provide a further boost, drawing international support for the handover of political power now just a month away. It addresses key demands from France, Russia and China -- three of the five Security Council countries with vetoes -- plus Germany by providing an approximate timetable and terms for a troop withdrawal.

The draft stipulates that the requested U.N. mandate for a U.S.-led multinational force will expire after Iraq completes its new constitution and elects a permanent government, which it is now scheduled to do by the end of 2005.

It also pledges that the multinational force will withdraw earlier if the Iraqi government requests it, and that the Iraqi government will have complete control over its own army and police.

The resolution further stipulates that all arrangements will be made only with the full consent of the Iraqi government and makes clear that as of June 30, Iraqis will have full sovereignty and full control of their financial and natural resources.

"People can now see that we're developing real momentum for the handover of sovereignty," said a senior State Department official who requested anonymity.

These developments, the most hopeful in months, come at a pivotal time for the administration. The chaos in Iraq, combined with the revelations about abuses of Iraqi prisoners by U.S. soldiers, has driven Bush's approval ratings to the lowest of his presidency.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week showed that 58 percent of Americans disapproved of his handling of Iraq, a politically perilous figure.

Bush aides contended over the weekend that the president has bottomed out politically. They told White House allies in Washington that the new government would mark a turning point by showing progress and would strengthen Bush for his meetings with European leaders later this week by putting Iraq's postwar future on a multinational track.

Yet through June 30 and beyond, the United States will enter a much more complex phase on Iraq. For the past year, the U.S.-led coalition has technically had sole authority over Iraq. With the appointment of the interim government and a return to the United Nations, the United States begins to cede formal control over what happens next.

After weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations, the messy selection of the interim government reflects the degree to which Washington had to turn to others -- the Iraqi Governing Council and the United Nations -- to meet its deadlines.

In addition, the new government has to win local support, despite strong U.S. and U.N. endorsements for including balance among ethnic and religious factions as well as between technocrats and politicians, and for including tribal leaders, women and many new faces. If it is rejected, the U.S.-led coalition has no fallback plan -- and the transition could be suddenly in jeopardy.