Painting Orioles by Numbers

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla.

Two questions, epitomized by two players, dominated conversation as the Baltimore Orioles played their first home exhibition game of the spring here on Friday. If the answers to these questions are pleasant, Baltimore could be one of the surprise teams of '05. But if those answers prove disappointing, the team's manager, and at least one of its two general managers, could easily find themselves excused from their jobs.

First, how mighty can the Orioles' batting order become if Sammy Sosa, at 36, is still a 40-plus home run slugger in baseball's new era of stiffer steroid testing? After all, the Orioles' lineup here Friday was almost an all-star team with six starters who had 100 RBI in '03 or '04. On paper, with a productive Sosa, the Orioles could score a staggering 900 runs this year, a level reached the last two seasons only by the Red Sox.

Second, how much better can the promising but as yet bitterly disappointing young Baltimore pitching rotation become if its former ace, Sidney Ponson, has finally been scared straight after spending the Christmas holidays in jail in Aruba after a beach brawl?

Both men gave preliminary answers Friday in their own distinctive ways -- Sosa by deed, Ponson by words.

In his first exhibition game as an Oriole, Sosa hit one of his trademark mammoth home runs. The source of his muscles can be impugned, as author and fink Jose Canseco has recently done. But there is no doubt that he still has them. Sosa's blast cleared the left field fence, a towering protective screen above it, a row of high palm trees and finally rolled to rest in the middle of left field on a practice diamond beyond Fort Lauderdale Stadium.

If the day's firm wind had been blowing out, instead of in, Sosa might well have homered in one park and doubled off the wall of another -- on one pitch.

Sosa did his little sideways dance as soon as the ball left his bat, emitting an alarming sound like a car windshield being smashed by a falling telephone pole. Get used to it.

"You're going to see a lot of those. And they are going to go a long way," said Rafael Palmeiro, who was on deck. "Now, we have to come up with a [home plate] handshake."

"We are going to do some damage this year," said Sosa, who joins a team that scored 842 runs last year, eighth best in baseball. In this day's lineup were Jay Gibbons (100 RBI in '03), Melvin Mora (104 in '04), Miguel Tejada (150 in '04), Sosa (103 in '03), Palmeiro (112 in '03) and Javy Lopez (109 in '03). Add Brian Roberts (107 runs in '04).

"Yeah, we're stacked," says Palmeiro, adding David Newhan (.311) and Larry Bigbie.

"Last year I had no depth. This year, I've got a lot of options," said Manager Lee Mazzilli. "Raffy got a little zapped [of energy] by the end of the year. Now, everybody who needs a day off can get one."

If Sosa stays healthy, which is an issue since his games have dropped the last four years (160, 150, 137, 126), the Orioles' attack may rival the Yanks' and approach Boston's.

But will the team's pitching and Mazzilli's game management maximize all that mashing? Last year, the Orioles outscored the league by 12 runs but ended 78-84. When that happens, it's said that the manager finished behind the team. If it happens twice . . .