Inauguration: How Bush Won

During the 2004 campaign a team of Newsweek reporters had exclusive behind the scenes access to both presidential campaigns, with the understanding that nothing learned would make its way into print until after Election Day. Initially compiled into a special edition of Newsweek that hit stands days after Bush's victory speech, it has since been expanded into the new book "Election 2004: How Bush Won and What You Can Expect in the Future."

Evan Thomas, assistant managing editor at Newsweek, was online Thursday, Jan. 20, at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the book, the 2004 campaign and Bush's second term.

The transcript follows.

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.

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Washington, D.C.: Did the Bush Admnistration/Campaign handle the press differently than his predecessors?

Evan Thomas: the Bush-Cheney folks were a little more restrictive and controlling. All incumbent White House press shops tend to be tight, but i think BC04 was especially so. and it worked.

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Princeton, N.J.: How much influence did Teresa Heinz actually have on John Kerry? Do you think she would have been as much of a "disaster" as a First Lady as you portrayed her to be on the campaign?

Evan Thomas: Teresa has many redeeming qualities--she is smart and independent and would have pleased many voters. but she could be erratic and self-absorbed and i think the press would have been tough on her and she would have been unhappy about it.

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Mons, France: Bush implies that his Iraq policy was sanctioned by the election: "we had an accountability moment, and that's called the 2004 election. And the American people listened to different assessments made about what was taking place in Iraq, and they looked at the two candidates, and chose me"

Is his reading correct? Did people vote for him essentially because of his Iraqi policy?

Evan Thomas: no, based on iraq alone he would have lost. but the voters do like it that bush shows resolve--on iraq they're uneasy, but they like his toughness on the war or terror and (by a narrow majority) his determination to see through whatever he takes on.

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Alexandria, Va.: Don't you think that the basic reason why Bush won re-election was not because of gay marriage or turnout or the deficiencies of the Kerry campaign but because a majority of Americans simply thought that the Republicans were more likely to keep this country safe from terrorism than the Democrats were? In recent years, when the foreign policy situation seems to be unsettled, the Republicans win and when domestic issues are paramount, it favors the Democrats.

Evan Thomas: i think there's no one answer. the biggest factors, i think, we the one you cite and a revulsion against pop culture's crudeness.

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Riverside, Calif.: After the 2000 presidential elections, there were scattered reports that the Republicans had expected to win the popular vote, losing the electoral vote. And, that plans were in effect to reverse that event.

Are you aware of such plans being in ready for use in the 2004 presidential election?

Evan Thomas: i don't think you can "plan" this sort of thing. rove and co were focused on turning out new republican voters in the swing states. that was the plan.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Certainly the topic "How Kerry (and Gore) Lost the election" should be addressed.
Kerry is liberal Senator from the most liberal state, had 3 different campaign teams and had a "troublesome" wife on the campaign trail. It has be to concluded that any moderate Democrat (if they could get nominatd) that could run a reasonable campiagn would have beaten Bush.

Evan Thomas: i think bush could have been beaten if kerry had connected better to average voters. his wife and background did not help.

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Bethesda, Md.: On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being "of no consequence" and 10 being "absolutely critical" to the election's outcome, assess the impact of the president's call for an amendment to the Constitution banning same-sex marriage.

Evan Thomas: 3

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Baltimore, Md.: In the end, I think you'll agree that John Kerry was a poor candidate despite the mantle of "electability" and near equity in money. Do you think that Iowa and New Hampshire will be supplanted in the Democrat primary schedule?

Evan Thomas: no. too much tradition there

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Simferopol, Crimea, Ukraine: What is wrong with the exit polls? They reported a much closer race than it turned out to be. Are the polls biased to influence the vote? If so, aren't there any we can believe?

(A Missionary from Fort Worth Texas)

Evan Thomas: for some reason, more republicans than dems refused to be interviewed by the exit pollsters. that's what the exit polls were off (predicted kerry 51 Bush 48)

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Richmond, Va.: Thank you for taking our questions.

I am in disagreement that Bush won because of huge support by "conservative, evangelical Christians." I think the fact is basic, ordinary church-goers tended to vote for Bush. My own denomination, the United Methodist Church, which is quite moderate tends to vote Republican in national elections 60 percent+. (Also, rural people voted for Bush in great numbers, too.) Do you feel the conservative-evangelical idea is being overplayed?

Evan Thomas: i agree with you. yes bush needed the evangelicals, but the margin of victory was people like you

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Burtonsville, Md.: Looking beyond Bush's second term...would it not have been wise for the Republicans to replace Cheney with someone healthier, more popular, and with presidential aspirations? Could tinkering with the ticket have been perceived as a weakness and been attacked by Democrats? Seems a little careless to just leave the door wide open. What do you think the future holds? (I'm a Democrat by the way, so please don't say Jeb!)

Evan Thomas: bush could not have dumped cheney and never considered it. it would have been a huge confession of error
hard to look ahead. i think jeb would be a good candidate--but it's vaguely unamerican to elect three bushes.

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Virginia: What did you think of Bush's speech?

Evan Thomas: a very strong statement of the value of freedom and a powerful promise to support it. i wonder what they're thinking in saudi arabia, egypt, china....

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Atlanta, Ga.: What do you see as Kerry's biggest mistake in the campaign? I thought he did well in all three of the debates.

Evan Thomas: his flip flop remark and his failure to hit back against the swift boats.

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Ashland, Mo.: Why do the Democrats pick Bob Shrum to be an integral part of their campaign? By picking Shrum, don't the Republicans know how the campaign will be run and have lots of practice winning against it?

Evan Thomas: shrum was a mistake. wrong guy for kerrey--made kerry sound like a jfk wannabe

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Washington, D.C.: Thank you for your very honest comments earlier this year regarding favorable media coverage of the Kerry campaign. It seems that most reporters and editors either disagree that the media have a balance problem or are too timid to say anything about it. Did you take a lot of heat over those comments from your media colleagues?

Evan Thomas: not too much. they know it's true. i grossly overstated how much the media bias meant to kerry tho. i said it was worth 15 points--wrong. maybe a couple of points.

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Syracuse, N.Y.: I don't think Bush won necessarily because of "values". I think he won because he was loved and trusted by most of the people. Would be intersted in what you think about that.

Evan Thomas: i think more people trusted him, believed in him than kerry. kerry was a hard guy to feel close to

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Monterey, Calif.: As a Kerry supporter, I was comfortable with the close polls right up until the end because the press, the democratic party, and youth activists was suggesting that many, many newly registered younger voters were not being caught by the polls (because they use cellphones etc.).

I still don't know what happened. Did the youth vote not materialize or did the Republicans also have a "hidden constituency" which did not emerge until election day?

Evan Thomas: we overstated the youth vote. also, the repubs were brilliant about targeting and turning out bush voters.

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Washington, D.C.: A recent Washington Post Magazine article argues that Kerry was very poorly defined for Red state voters and that Democrats should have considered contesting the election in a 50 state strategy. Is this feasible??

washingtonpost.com: The Red Sea (Post Magazine, Jan. 6)

Evan Thomas: i don't think he had the resources to run a 50 state campaign or the need. but yes they should have defined him better for the red states

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Austin, Tex.: I'm a little surprised that you attach so much importance to the "crudeness of pop culture." Especially since I've read that conservative, Christian people in the Bible Belt apparently watch and enjoy the same tacky TV shows that the rest of us do.

Could you elaborate a little?

Evan Thomas: i think if you look at the votes of married mothers you'll see an interesting swing from democrat to republican between 2000 and 2004. i attribute that in part to parental revulsion against the crudeness of pop culture, even tho plenty of people who are put off by it still watch it.

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The Shadows: So you don't have to name names or parties if you don't want to... but what shifty behaviors did you witness behind the scenes? What political arm twisting, election day freak outs or shady activities?

Hmmmmmmm?

Evan Thomas: sorry, didn't witness any

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Alexandria, Va.: In my opinion, the main reason both Bush and a Republican Congress were re-elected was not because of gay marriage, turnout or the deficiencies of John Kerry as a candidate, but simply because the public trusts Republicans more in times of external threats to the country. When there is peace abroad and domestic issues are paramount they are willing to give the Democrats, who are seen as more caring, a shot, but when the barbarians are at the gates, they want a firm hand on the wheel of the ship of state.

Evan Thomas: okay, but how do you explain fdr's victory in 40 and 44 before and during ww 2 and harry truman's victory in 48 at the beginning of the cold war and jfk's in '60 at the height of the cold war?

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Anonymous: President Bush made no secret during the campaign about his plans to reform social security. But now, some republicans, including Rep. Thomas, appear surprised that he was serious. Is Thomas right when he (implicitly) says that the American people did not vote for social security reform when they voted for President Bush? If they did not, then what did they vote for?

Evan Thomas: i don't think bush made a big deal about it, and it wasn't nearly as big a voting issue as the war, nat'l security issues, gay marriage, etc.

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Washington, D.C.: Do you think that the mainstream media treated Bush unfairly and Kerry more favorably during the election?

Evan Thomas: yes, slightly

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Ottawa, Canada: Do you think that if Kerry had listened to Bill Clinton and supported the anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot in Ohio that he would have won the state?

Evan Thomas: interesting question. maybe

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Lyme, Conn.: How do you assess the importance of voters concerns over the war and the military experience of the two candidates? Was it Kerry's misfortunes that the Swift Boat Veterans Against Kerry charges against him stuck, and that the charges against Bush that he did not fulfill his military obligaton instead wound up blowing up in CBS's face, essentially sealed the victory for Bush?

Evan Thomas: kerry should have been favored on this issue, but he failed to explain how he became anti war when he came home. bush in effect said, you already know i went into the guard in part to avoid vietnam. he had a lot of company

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Somerville, Mass.: In light of the enormously divisive nature of the past presidential election and the unusually high voter turnout level as well as razor thin margin of victory for Geore W. Bush, do you believe that President Bush will need to define his agenda for his second term in terms of national and international policies which will unite more Americans of both parties behind him, or will he continue in the same polarizing style of governance which has divided the country into its current red and blue battlegrounds? Thanks.

Evan Thomas: i think he will have to pick off a few dems to get social security reform. so i think he will be a little more conciliatory. a little.

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Virginia: What impact did the "Swiftboat Veterans" campaign have on the Kerry and Bush campaigns?

Evan Thomas: huge. possibly decisive. kerry was looking okay coming out the dem convention. by mid sept in large part because of the swifties he was down by about six. even tho he won the debates he could not make it up.

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Ashland, Va.: Who do you think the Democrats can run in '08 who would have a chance at making inroads in the red states, while not giving up ground in the blue? Are there any current Democratic leaders who can bridge the gap -- something Kerry obviously was unable to do?

Evan Thomas: i don't see anyone right now. i notice hillary is sounding more and more like the midwestern girl she once was and not the yale law school feminist she became

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Washington, D. C.: When Democrats talk about why Bush won they focus on the party's lack of communication with "moral values" voters, the voters' inclination to support the incumbent in war time, their own lack of organizational effort, especially in the Red states, etc. But there is almost no explicit acknowlegement that their own process for selecting a candidate was skewed toward finding an establishment candidate who, while non-threatening to that establishment, lacked the likeability, vision and gumption to present a winning alternative to Bush. Maybe I have missed it, but more than two months after the election there have been very few mainstream Democrats who have admitted their candidate himself was the main reason Bush won. Do you think the Democrats will ever face up to how poor (timid, inarticulate, etc.) a candidate Kerry was and that there may be something seriously wrong with the way their selection process works?

Evan Thomas: there's lots of quiet grumbling that kerry was wrong. but they don't blame him the way they blamed gore

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Atlanta, Ga.: Evan, polls indicated that Bush won a majority of the Catholic vote, a far cry from 1960 when Richard Nixon won maybe just 20 percent of the Catholic vote against another JFK. Is there any evidence that Kerry expressed private concern that the abortion issue was going to cost him some Catholic votes, and did he just plainly underestimate the significance of "moral issues" (abortion, gay marriage, etc.) in the contest?

Evan Thomas: no concern that i know of. it's to kerry's credit, i think, that he did not pander here.

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Washington, D.C.: Can you explain the sort of access you received from the campaigns? It sure seems that you have a lot more moments of Kerry imploding than you do Bush's missteps. Is this due to access, a need for a plausible story arch since Kerry lost, the better management of the campaign by Bush aides, a bit of everything?

Evan Thomas: we had better access to kerry's campaign. the incumbent is always tougher to get inside than the challenger, for obvious reasons. BC04 was especially tough. we did do pretty well getting inside the campaign staff, but no one talks, much, about their conversations with the president.
also, in some ways, the kerry story had more dramatic tension.

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Washington, D.C.: The thing I noticed about the Democratic convention was how militaristic it was. Even Barak Obama, when he gave his speech, said the problem was that we didn't send enough soldiers to Iraq, not that it was a mistake to go in there. A lot of people thought the only thing wrong with Vietnam was that we didn't use overwhelming force there, either, but I would hardly call them doves. So it seems the Democrats set themselves up, trying to out-macho the commander-in-chief. Dukakis redux.

Evan Thomas: the dems fell all over themselves trying to overcome the stereotype that they're the 'mommy' party while the repubs are the 'daddy' party. they tried too hard. we have an revealing quote from adm. crowe saying as much.

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New York, N.Y.: Do you think -- as things stand now -- Hillary would even have a shot against Rudy in '08?

Evan Thomas: i'm not sure rudy can get the nomination in primaries that are heavily influenced by right-to-lifers

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Alexandria, Va.: If there had been another terrorist attack during the campaign, do you think it would have benefited Bush, in that it would have reminded everyone that we're still in danger, or Kerry, in that it would have undermined the Republicans' message that they're better at handling national security?

Evan Thomas: hard to know. there's always a rally-round effect, but on the other hand it might have shown the bush somehow failed to keep the country safe.

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Arlington, Va.: Mr. Thomas,
Can you please elaborate on your position of the press' unfairness towards Bush in 2004? You mentioned in this thread that the administration maintained tighter control over the media. While some reporters have " dug in" there are many indications that the "liberal media" has given him a free ride. eg. No weapons of mass destruction found, failure to fund NCLB, etc.

Evan Thomas: the press--me included--did give bush a pretty free ride in the walk-up to the war. partly, its was the after effect of 9/11 and the genius of "embedding" reporters. but since the spring of 2003 the mainstream press has been tough on bush.

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Alexandria, Va.: I'm the guy who thought the election swung on national security issues with the public trusting the Republicans more than the Democrats. Sorry, I should have been more specific, I meant in the Cold War era and after. Eisenhower taking over after Truman botched Korea, Nixon taking over after JFK and LBJ messed up in Vietnam, Reagan winning after Carter practically invited the Soviets to invade Afghanistan (his "inordinate fear of Communism speech"). True, Bush did win in 2000 when things seemed safe, but lost the national popular vote. And when Truman won in 1948, the Cold War really hadn't really gotten started yet and the public hadn't fully discovered yet how the Democrats had let the Reds penetrate the Federal government.

Evan Thomas: still don't totally buy your thesis as decisive, tho maybe in recent years. the perception has grown that the dems are a 'softer' party....i mentioned this in an earlier answer about the dems as 'mommy party' v. gop as 'daddy.' crude stereotyping but it gets at something visceral.

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New Brunswick, N.J.: What do you think are Howard Dean's chances of becoming the head of the DNC? How much will this affect 2008?

Evan Thomas: i heard from a party insider that right now dean is the strongest candidate. not good for the dems, i think. dean has some refreshing quantities but he's too much of a hot head, i think.

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Richmond, Va.: Did the issue of stem cell research collapse into the category of "moral issues" for many voters? Could you tell whether or not Bush struggled at all with his stance on stem cell research, and whether it troubled him that his policy might slow down efforts to find new treatments for countless people?

Evan Thomas: i think bush really struggled. he often makes snap judgments, but the evidence shows he worked on this one and regards his approach as a compromise.

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Frederick, Md:. Alexandria is right but the reason there is no ready explanation to your queries about why Roosevelt, Truman, or JFK got elected is simple: he didn't qualify it as he should have. What he speaks of is a clear development, a post-Vietnam, emergence of the New Left phenomonen. It basically killed the Democratic party. The Dems used to be for a strong America and national defense. That changed when the Peace Movement took down Lyndon Johnson. No Dem since JFK (other than Scoop Jackson or Lieberman) have sounded the same since. It is a major reason why they go in to these presidential elections likely to lose when the international scene looks perilous.

Evan Thomas: right.

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USA: It seems there were a lot of factors to Bush's victory. Many white southerners still having trouble with society's changes (race, gender, immigration, etc.) over recent decades. Elitist media and Hollywood. Men wanting to marry other men. And, of course, terrorists flying planes into buildings. A contest between a guy who seems to be "one of us" and one who manifestly isn't.

I'm not happy with the result, but I can largely understand it.

My question: How much of this was specific to the 2004 election? How much is longer-term? Is the 2008 election going to be largely about the same things, or will it be a whole new ball game? (I know it's an impossible question. But I'd love to hear your best guess.)

Evan Thomas: history never repeats itself--exactly. but the dems have to find a way to better talk to the red states.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: By my estimate, Kerry's base expanded by nearly 17 percent from Gore's popular vote total in 2000 -- but Bush's expanded by a miraculous 25 percent. How is it possible that virtually all the professional pollsters missed the minting of 10 million more voters for Bush-Cheney this time around? And what's the lesson for the Democrats?

Evan Thomas: best answer in a piece in the wash post by tom edsall about two-three weeks ago. repubs were more scientific about mining new voters.

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Crofton, Md.: I followed the horse race, as reported in the media, as much as anyone did before the election, and the first time I heard "values" as an issue was on election day when I saw one guy standing outside the polling place holding a sign that said, "Vote your Values" and another guy holding a sign that said, "Vote as if your faith depended upon it."

Did the media drop the ball by not identifying values as a factor before the election?

Evan Thomas: i think the main stream media does not do a great job reporting on red state american because so few of us live there and really understand it.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: It seems the Republicans have most of the the Southern states wrapped up and the Democrats have most of the Northeastern and West Coast states wrapped up. The battles are likely going to remain for Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida. Do you think Evan Bayh or Mark Warner could make the Democrats competitive enough to win in 2008?

Evan Thomas: only if they really find a way to sound--sincerely--like red state americans. warner maybe more than bayh, who seems a little bland and too eastern educated to me.

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Neenah, Wis.: Exit poll data available showed the majority of Kerry voters named the economy, not the war, as the reason they voted for Kerry. Has anyone projected what the popular and electoral vote totals might have been if the economy had been doing much better? And how do you personally think the election would have gone if the economy had been doing better or was perceived to be better?

Evan Thomas: i think the economy was not a huge issue. it usually is /the/ issue. but i think voters were more focused on security issues and 'values.'

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Charlotte, N.C.: Every time I read a pundit writing about Bush's limited opportunity before he becomes a Lame Duck or his lack of support in the polls for his actions I laugh. I detest President Bush, but I do have to hand it too him that he has thrown out the old rule book and does what he wants. I don't think that he is too concerned with polls or the Lame Duck lable. He governed in his first term like he had 90 percent of the popular vote, I don't expect him to do any different in his second term. Your thoughts?

Evan Thomas: i agree with you. maybe he will be a little less cocky sounding and conciliatory. but not much

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Washington, D.C.: How satisfied is the religious right going to be with Bush this term? He's already backing off his pledge to take another swing at a gay marriage ban amendment, Specter will probably be a big roadblock in getting anti-abortion judges confirmed, and none of the issues he's outlined as his top priorities -- Iraq, terrorism, social security, tax reform -- have anything to do with social values that so many people cited when asked why they voted for Bush. Will he make some effort at throwing Christians a bone, or does he no longer really care now that he won?

Evan Thomas: i think bush will do just what reagan did for the religious right: not a whole lot.

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Morristown, N.J.: Do left-of-center Democrats not understand that they will fail to win any converts if they mock Bush voters are stupid Rednecks?

As a Bush voter, I don't mind that they do this because it only will help solidify my side, but aren't there any Democrats who think that, maybe -- just maybe -- the way to win over voters is not to antagonize them?

Evan Thomas: dems are /so/ stupid about condescending to heartland voters. the red states can feel it.

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Sparks, Nev.: I hope you discuss how/why Kerry lost. All of the Kerry emphasis was on what happened 30-plus years ago and what was wrong with the Bush administration. The more than 20 years he spent in Congress was largely ignored. What did he do during that period that would rate a vote?

Evan Thomas: kerry's congressional years were forgettable, at least in terms of voter interest.

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Evan Thomas: thanks everyone for the good questions.
Evan Thomas

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