Could Leaks Sink Tony Blair?

Blair himself is concerned says the Daily Telegraph. The prime minister is reportedly worried "that a surge in support for Liberal Democrats over Iraq could cut his [parliamentary] majority to well under 100, possibly even as low as 30 to 50."

Blair went on TV to accuse the Liberal Democrats and conservative Tories "of constantly returning to the theme of Iraq because they had nothing positive to say on the issues affecting Britain's future."

The prime minister also warned disillusioned Labor voters against a protest vote for Liberal Democratic leader Charles Kennedy, who has been relentlessly attacking Blair's credibility.

"There isn't going to be a Liberal Democrat government," Blair said. "But what there could be is Liberal Democrat votes that let the Tories in."

Columnist Gary Younge of The Guardian replied, "There is as much veracity to the claim that voting for the Liberal Democrats will let the Tories through the back door as there was that Saddam Hussein was 45 minutes from killing us all. A study by the Independent revealed that a swing of 11.5% from Labour to the Lib Dems would indeed deprive Labour of its overall majority. But even if the defections were twice that rate, it would still be 'virtually impossible' to let in a Conservative government."

It's far from a statistically valid sample but the Daily Telegraph says the Tories are gaining among a focus group of 10 voters interviewed by the newspaper.

But the Conservative's Michael Howard is an improbable beneficiary of an Iraq protest vote because he would probably not change Blair's Iraq war policy at all. The Telegraph's endorsement of Howard does not even mention Iraq.

Polemics over the Iraq war will not make any difference, predicted The Sun. Britain's best-selling newspaper said "nobody outside the Westminster village [meaning the British political class] is listening" to the attacks on Blair.

Others are listening but not changing their votes. Tony Parsons, a columnist for the Mirror, another popular tabloid, says "we don't even blink" about the Iraq revelations "because we expect to be lied to by Tony Blair and crew."

Nonetheless, says Parsons, he will vote for Blair "with a sigh."