Connolly Shows Fundraising Prowess

While the 11th is a GOP-friendly district, thanks largely to Republican redistricting in 2001, Fairfax Democrats say they were buoyed by Sen. John F. Kerry's 32,000-vote edge over President Bush in the county last fall.

Connolly, who leads a board dominated 7 to 3 by Democrats, said he is focused on his reelection campaign. But he acknowledged that in politics, "everything's timing, and opportunities obviously open."

Connolly has been a prodigious fundraiser since his days as supervisor in the Providence district, where he drew heavily from builders, developers, real estate agents and technology firms in Tysons. He also enjoys strong support from the firefighters union, which bought a table at the Tower Club fundraiser this year. And he notes his small donations from Democratic activists. More than 300 supporters showed up at Kena Temple in Mantua for this year's St. Patrick's Day fete.

"Gerry's going to be formidable," said Stuart Mendelsohn, a Republican from Great Falls who retired as a Dranesville supervisor in 2003. "He's scaring people off. He's telling prospective opponents, 'You're going to need all this money to take me on.' "

Connolly took in more than $700,000 in his race for chairman against Republican Mychele B. Brickner.

County Democrats say a challenge from within the party in 2007 is unlikely. On the Republican side, no likely opponent has emerged, Davis and other party leaders say.

Even with an empty GOP field, Republican activists say, Connolly is vulnerable on the same issues Brickner tried to use against him: traffic, development and, most prominently, rising real estate assessments.

"There's still a lot of anti-tax sentiment out there," said Supervisor Michael R. Frey (R-Sully), noting that he hasn't "closed the door" on his own candidacy. The Board of Supervisors is likely to cut the property tax rate by at least 10 cents this year, but homeowners still will pay several hundred dollars more on average.

Some political activists say Gerald E. Connolly might consider running for Congress in the 11th District if the seat were to become open.