It's a test of Arab democracy. It's a challenge to Israel. It's a referendum on suicide bombing.
Today's municipal elections in the West Bank and Gaza are getting more attention from the online media than the relatively small number of voters (about 400,000) would ordinarily demand because the vote will do much to shape the near-term future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The vote in 84 Palestinian towns and villages comes at a time of "steadily deteriorating" relations between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, according to Agence France Presse. After Abbas succeeded the late Yasser Arafat in January, he and his Israeli counterpart forged a working relationship that produced three months of relative peace between the two sides. The lull in violence, however, has not lead to a diplomatic breakthrough.
Instead the two sides have engaged in mutual recriminations focused mainly on how to deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, which is fielding candidates in the elections and is expected to do well.
The latest dispute erupted Tuesday when Palestinian police released a member of a Hamas rocket squad, despite Abbas's pledge to get tough with those who break the cease-fire with Israel.
"The release came after intervention by outraged Hamas leaders and Egyptian diplomats," according to the Daily Star in Lebanon. "The suspect was set free even though he and two other Hamas militants had fired at officers during Monday night's arrest, and a rocket launcher and firearms were found in the gunmen's car.
"Israeli officials said the incident underscores the failure of Abbas' attempt to coopt rather than confront militants. They said Hamas must be disarmed, preferably before Palestinian legislative elections in July, and that otherwise Israel may not move forward on the U.S.-backed 'road map' peace plan," the Daily Star reported.
"Abbas has insisted he will avoid a large-scale confrontation with the militants, but recently adopted a tougher approach, warning last week that he will use an 'iron fist' against those violating the cease-fire."
Thursday's vote, says Middle East Online, is a "test of the strength" between the dominant secular Fatah faction that supports Abbas's efforts to forge a peace settlement, and Hamas which rejects negotiations with Israel.
The liberal Israeli daily Haaretz noted Hamas's grass-roots popularity. In the West Bank city of Shiyukh, reporter Arnon Regular visited the local Hamas municipal offices with an anonymous party leader identified only as "A."
"Not by coincidence, the new offices are located next to a school for orphans run by A.'s association, which was declared illegal by the Israel Defense Forces in 2003. The offices are indeed locked, with the Israel Defense Forces order pasted to the door, but the school is operating as usual, and now the council offices will be operating next door. It is Hamas' way of letting the residents know new winds are blowing," Regular wrote.
The West Bank correspondent for Islam Online, based in the United Arab Emirates, cites promising signs for Hamas. Kamal Al-Astal, a political science professor interviewed for the article, predicted that Hamas could win more than 50 percent of the vote.
