By Jefferson Morley
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Thursday, May 5, 2005 7:52 AM

It's a test of Arab democracy. It's a challenge to Israel. It's a referendum on suicide bombing.

Today's municipal elections in the West Bank and Gaza are getting more attention from the online media than the relatively small number of voters (about 400,000) would ordinarily demand because the vote will do much to shape the near-term future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The vote in 84 Palestinian towns and villages comes at a time of "steadily deteriorating" relations between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, according to Agence France Presse. After Abbas succeeded the late Yasser Arafat in January, he and his Israeli counterpart forged a working relationship that produced three months of relative peace between the two sides. The lull in violence, however, has not lead to a diplomatic breakthrough.

Instead the two sides have engaged in mutual recriminations focused mainly on how to deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement, or Hamas, which is fielding candidates in the elections and is expected to do well.

The latest dispute erupted Tuesday when Palestinian police released a member of a Hamas rocket squad, despite Abbas's pledge to get tough with those who break the cease-fire with Israel.

"The release came after intervention by outraged Hamas leaders and Egyptian diplomats," according to the Daily Star in Lebanon. "The suspect was set free even though he and two other Hamas militants had fired at officers during Monday night's arrest, and a rocket launcher and firearms were found in the gunmen's car.

"Israeli officials said the incident underscores the failure of Abbas' attempt to coopt rather than confront militants. They said Hamas must be disarmed, preferably before Palestinian legislative elections in July, and that otherwise Israel may not move forward on the U.S.-backed 'road map' peace plan," the Daily Star reported.

"Abbas has insisted he will avoid a large-scale confrontation with the militants, but recently adopted a tougher approach, warning last week that he will use an 'iron fist' against those violating the cease-fire."

Thursday's vote, says Middle East Online, is a "test of the strength" between the dominant secular Fatah faction that supports Abbas's efforts to forge a peace settlement, and Hamas which rejects negotiations with Israel.

The liberal Israeli daily Haaretz noted Hamas's grass-roots popularity. In the West Bank city of Shiyukh, reporter Arnon Regular visited the local Hamas municipal offices with an anonymous party leader identified only as "A."

"Not by coincidence, the new offices are located next to a school for orphans run by A.'s association, which was declared illegal by the Israel Defense Forces in 2003. The offices are indeed locked, with the Israel Defense Forces order pasted to the door, but the school is operating as usual, and now the council offices will be operating next door. It is Hamas' way of letting the residents know new winds are blowing," Regular wrote.

The West Bank correspondent for Islam Online, based in the United Arab Emirates, cites promising signs for Hamas. Kamal Al-Astal, a political science professor interviewed for the article, predicted that Hamas could win more than 50 percent of the vote.

"The Palestinian street is looking for reform and change and is now fully aware of the truth of the slogans propagated by the candidates as they have had enough of the corrupt policies," Al-Astal said.

Islam Online also noted news reports that "the Palestinian security bodies have been interfering to garner support for Fatah candidates in the West Bank," including threats against Palestinian citizens in southern Gaza Strip to force them to vote for Fatah-backed candidates.

The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights charged last week that acting chief of Palestinian police, Mahmoud Asfour, violated election law by directing his aides, commanders and police officers to "effectively participate in the elections and support candidates from the Fatah movement ... "

"This declaration constitutes a blatant violation of the rules of election campaigning," the PCHR reported. Palestinian National Authority officials and organs "must remain neutral in all stages of the electoral process."

PCHR observers also reported that Hamas and Islamic Jihad have used mosques to serve their election campaigns, also a violation of election laws.

Israel has been reluctant to get involved in Palestinian elections, "But apprehension that Hamas might score big gains, or even attain a majority, have brought about an abrupt change in Israel's approach," according to Arutz Sheva, a news site of the right-wing Jewish settler movement.

"For the first time, Israel is demanding that Hamas disarm before taking part in elections for the Palestinian legislative council, scheduled for July 17," the site said.

"It is inconceivable for an armed party to participate in the democratic process," the site quoted Sharon telling U.S. Senators Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and Joseph Lieberman (D-Conn.), who were visiting Israel earlier this week. "From there it is impossible to move onto the road map."

Daniel Pipes, an American commentator writing for the Jerusalem Post, asks: "Is Washington misjudging Hamas?"

"The Bush administration's push for quick democracy in the Middle East has an increasingly clear implication: if Islamist organizations such as Hamas are to be likely electoral winners, Western powers should stop classifying them as terrorists and instead come to terms with them," he writes.

Washington's emphasis on promoting Arab democratic movements risks "whitewashing" Hamas, which Pipes says has killed 400 Israelis. Quoting President Bush, Pipes says "those who love freedom and peace must deal harshly with Hamas."

But Hamas, emboldened by its strong showing in municipal elections in Gaza in January, has rejected calls to renounce violence as it pursues electoral politics. As Aljazeera.net reported in March, "Hamas feels it is now strong enough, and confident enough," to join the Palestinian mainstream, "not as a spoiler or an upstart as the movement was once perceived . . . but as a full partner and even a potential saviour" of the Palestinian cause.

Today's vote should provide a reliable measure of Hamas's standing among the Palestinians.