Unexpectedly, Capitol Hill Democrats Stand Firm

GOP colleagues say Thune's victory last fall underscores the risks Democrats are running. He ousted then-Democratic leader Thomas A. Daschle after portraying him as an overly partisan obstructionist. Republicans also picked up five southern Senate seats from retiring Democrats, and they added three seats to their House majority.

"I think they're getting kind of heady about where they are at this point," Thune said, "but I don't think they can sustain it. . . . Eventually I think that strategy is very dangerous and a miscalculation on their part."

But Thune acknowledged that Republicans at first wrongly assumed a few Democrats would compromise on stalled judicial nominations and that gave Democrats a head start in the public relations battle over federal courts. "I think it probably caught our guys a little off guard," he said.

Senate Democratic leader Reid, who opposes legalized abortion and has a slightly more conservative reputation than Daschle, has especially intrigued Capitol insiders. Some predicted he would be more willing to deal with Republicans after last year's setbacks, but he has proven them wrong.

"A great deal of the credit for the solidarity among Democrats goes to Harry Reid," said Baker, who has written extensively on Congress. Baker said that unlike Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), who has held his post less than three years, Reid "is a creature of the Senate" who inspires confidence in his colleagues.

That includes Democrats from states that Bush carried, such as Sens. Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. They, along with Democratic House members such as Stephanie Herseth (S.D.) and John S. Tanner (Tenn.), are the types of Democrats that Republicans had hoped would defect on tough issues in which the GOP position might be popular back home. It hasn't happened.

In the House, several Republicans privately worry they are losing the public relations battle over ethics, which centers on Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.). The GOP opened the year by changing ethics committee rules, making it harder to investigate complaints lodged against lawmakers. But Republicans have shown hints of retreat in recent days -- first by offering to waive the new standard in order to investigate DeLay, and later by Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) saying he would consider restoring the original rule altogether.

Similarly in the Senate, Frist repeatedly has threatened to change parliamentary rules to ban filibusters of judicial nominees. But without a single Democrat agreeing to the change -- and a few Republicans balking as well -- Frist has postponed the showdown and talked of still seeking a compromise.

"When we undertook this, we didn't think public opinion would be on our side," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). "But it is."