A Gambler Decides to Raise the Stakes

Democrats, bludgeoned in the last election, have suddenly regained confidence. "He's going to continue a downward spiral of weakness," predicted Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster. "Weakness begets weakness and failure begets failure . . . The only way for him to get out of this downward spiral is to change the agenda."

White House aides took the risk of a nationally televised news conference because they know that the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the success of Bush's second term. Aides who dismissed talk of a second-term funk only weeks ago grant that the coming weeks represent a crucial test of Bush's strength.

"We acknowledge there is a lot noise coming out of Washington" about nominees and ethics, said a senior White House aide who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. "The president is talking about two things people care about" -- energy and Social Security -- but "it is not necessarily getting through because we are competing with a lot of other story lines here."

By all accounts, the president is in a difficult position. He needs to rise above the "noise" to regain the advantage on Social Security and other big items. But he also needs to win battles over nominees to prove to lawmakers that he still has clout on the big issues.

White House aides told Bush the media would pounce on the end of his 60-day tour touting Social Security changes (Sunday) and the 100th day of his second term (Saturday), and the news conference offered Bush the opportunity to go on the offensive -- at least for an evening.

For months, Bush had resisted giving specifics about his plan other than saying it should include personal accounts. But declining to offer specifics became untenable. GOP pollster David Winston said Bush succeeded in convincing Americans there's a problem that needs fixing, but "there's a frustration" in the public because "there's a time delay between being convinced there's a problem and learning what the solution looks like."

Now that Bush has offered more specifics, he encounters a new set of risks. Democrats are ready to pounce on Bush for his plan to index benefits to prices rather than wages, which they say will mean a major benefit cut. "For the first time ever, you'll see a Social Security solvency plan that is solely based on deep cuts to the middle class," said Gene B. Sperling, who was President Bill Clinton's economic adviser.

And conservative Republicans will balk at his call last night for "progressive indexing," which would reduce future payments for middle- and upper-income retirees by linking increases to prices rather than wages. Stephen Moore, a leading proponent of personal accounts, warned of a "nightmare" in which benefit cuts "cost Republicans the Senate in 2006."

"He has a clear conundrum right now," Moore said.