"The assessment is that they have the capability to do that, yes, ma'am," Jacoby replied.
U.S. estimates of North Korean efforts to develop nuclear weapons and build long-range missiles have critical importance for the Bush administration's vigorous effort to develop anti-missile systems.
They also bear on the administration's diplomatic drive in "six-party" talks with Japan, China, South Korea and Russia to halt the North Korean weapons programs. North Korea has refused to attend the talks since June and, according to U.S. officials, appears to have built up its stockpile of nuclear material.
Seizing on Jacoby's remarks as evidence the threat from North Korea's nuclear program is increasing, Clinton and Sen. Carl M. Levin (Mich.), the ranking Democrat on the committee, wrote to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urging the administration "to engage in bilateral diplomatic efforts with North Korea to address this serious threat." The administration has refused to meet one-on-one with North Korea, except on the sidelines of the six-party talks, arguing that such a bilateral approach has proven ineffective.
The U.S. intelligence community concluded several years ago that North Korea had already developed a two- or three-stage missile that could strike the United States about 6,000 miles away. But the country has yet to flight-test such a missile.
Determining whether North Korea has managed to make a nuclear warhead for a missile poses even greater difficulties for U.S. intelligence analysts than assessing whether the Taepo Dong 2 can fly. The physical appearance of a warhead can provide some clues but is hardly conclusive evidence, specialists say.
U.S. officials also acknowledge large gaps in their knowledge of North Korea's nuclear effort. Since estimating a decade ago that North Korea had obtained "one or two" nuclear devices, the U.S. government has not provided an official update, although privately analysts have raised their estimates to an average of about nine nuclear weapons.
Jacoby said yesterday that he expected to have a new assessment to present to the Senate committee in "approximately two weeks."
