In Derby History, Three Is the Magic Number

As trainer Tim Ritchey pondered how to prepare Afleet Alex for the Kentucky Derby, he looked to history for guidance. He discussed his options with Billy Turner, who trained Seattle Slew to sweep the 1977 Triple Crown, and decided to do what Turner had done: give his colt three prep races as a 3-year-old before sending him to Churchill Downs. Even after an early-season disruption to Afleet Alex's schedule, Ritchey didn't waver: "Three was always the number."

Three has been a magic number. Horses who have tried to win the Derby with fewer prep races have lost in 55 of 56 tries since 1949. The three-prep-race standard is only one of several Derby guidelines whose validity is underscored by decades of results. One might think that all the trainers of a good 3-year-old would pore over the record books as they plan their pre-Derby campaigns.

But they don't. Many share Henry Ford's philosophy that "History is bunk."

Trainers such as Bobby Frankel and Todd Pletcher have achieved great success by bringing horses into stakes races "fresh" -- lightly campaigned, with plenty of time between starts. Their style is antithetical to the methods traditionally used to get horses ready for the Derby. Accordingly, most of the leading contenders are coming into Saturday's race with preparation that the record books would say is insufficient.

For bettors trying to pick the winner, the key handicapping question may be a philosophical one: Does history matter?

Trainers of the past would have disdained the concept of running horses "fresh." They believed horses had to run hard, train hard and run often to be fit for a demanding race such as the Derby. Carry Back had started 28 times before he won the roses in 1961. In many ways, Derby history underscores the importance of sufficient preparation:

· A horse should have raced at least three times as a 3-year-old and at least five times in his career. The last horse to win the Derby with two prep races was Sunny's Halo in 1983. The last to win with only four career starts was Exterminator in 1918.

· A horse should have a race within four weeks of the Derby. The last horse to win after a layoff of five weeks or more was Needles in 1955.

· A horse must have some foundation of experience as a 2-year-old. Not since 1882 has a horse unraced at 2 gone on to win the Derby.