British Labor Party Appears Vulnerable on Immigration

Voters Favor Conservatives on Key Issue in Thursday's Vote

DOVER, England, May 2 -- Eight years ago, Gary Glover was part of the electoral tide that swept British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labor Party government into power after 18 years in the wilderness, but on Thursday he plans to cast his vote with the Conservative Party.

For Glover, the big issue is immigration, which he and many other Britons contend is out of control. "British people are homeless, and immigrants are living better and better," he said Monday morning as he worked to repair a gas main along one of Dover's main thoroughfares.

The reality is more complex, but if there is anything that could alter the eventual margin in an election in which Blair and Labor appear headed for another comfortable majority in Parliament, it is the twin issues of immigration and asylum seekers. According to every opinion poll, it is one of the top three or four issues in the campaign and the only one on which voters trust the Conservatives, known as the Tories, far more than they trust Labor.

The wave of foreigners that has arrived in Britain in the eight years since Labor came to power triggers a variety of emotions among the British electorate, including resentment that newcomers get benefits that longtime citizens do not, and gives rise to the more touchy subjects of race and cultural identity.

The power of the issue is reminiscent of what California experienced during the economic downturn of the 1990s. But Labor Party strategists say the emotions expressed in focus groups in Britain are, if anything, even more raw and resentful than they are in the United States and grow out of a culture in which immigration has not been as central to national identity.

Labor activists view the Conservatives as trying to play the race card and say the slogan that the Conservatives used to kick off their campaign -- "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" -- encouraged racial polarization. One Conservative candidate for Parliament, Bob Spink, ran a local advertisement that included the line, "What bit of 'send them back' don't you understand, Mr. Blair?"

But the party's leader, Michael Howard, denies Labor's charges and says Blair and his party are trying to stifle an important debate by tarring the opposition rather than addressing an issue that rankles many voters. At the local level, Conservative candidates say the people don't buy Labor's criticism of the Tory campaign or Labor's claims that it has the situation under control.

"I don't need to mention asylum or immigration locally," Conservative candidate Paul Watkins said Monday afternoon as he took a break from campaigning. "Local people raise it on the doorstep."

The district where he is challenging the Labor incumbent includes this seacoast city southeast of London that is best known for its celebrated white cliffs. As the entryway to Britain for many foreigners stepping off ferries, it has been touched directly by the issue of immigration.

Brian Chazzell, who runs a small furniture store in Dover, said he plans to vote against the two major parties because both are mired in what he sees as a useless debate about Iraq. But he had strong opinions about the foreign influx.

"We're a little island and we're still trying to be the great empire trying to help out every Tom, Dick and Harry," he said. "The island will sink. You can only open the door so long before the house is full. . . . Mr. Howard is correct. It is about time we spoke about how many people we can hold."

From 1997 to 2002, net migration to Britain topped 1.1 million people, about double what it had been over the previous five years, according to government statistics. Both sides agree that at some time during this period, Britain lost control of its borders. The debate now is over whether the Labor government has moved effectively to put in place a more rational system for dealing with the wave of newcomers.