Political Horse Race Season Opens

The three analysts are predicting a close race in Tennessee with Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring, presumably to run for president. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is thought to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination for Frist's seat, and a host of seemingly evenly matched Republicans are considering the race.

But Republicans say neither Ford nor any other Democrat has a chance in this Southern state.

"No matter who their candidate is, we fully intend to keep that seat," said Brian Nick, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "If you look at the trends from the last election, with South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana -- the five states Republicans picked up last year -- Tennessee fits into the same kind of race right there. [Democrats] will point to the fact that they have a Democrat governor there. But in terms of national issues, the Democrats are so far out of it, they don't have a chance."

His counterpart at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee disagrees. "Recent polling had Ford doing well," said Phil Singer. "There will be a divisive primary. His polling had him running head-to-head with the three candidates on the Republican side who've all run statewide before. They all seem to have shallow support. Ford has new ideas and fresh-faced approach to governing. We're in a very strong position there."

Here are a few other seats that could be competitive, but for which the party holding probably retains the advantage:

On the Democratic side, incumbent Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.) and Maria Cantwell (Wash.) could face tough battles. Republicans are also eyeing a few Democratic seats that will be open in 2006. Maryland, where Sen. Paul Sarbanes is retiring, could be particularly attractive for the GOP if Lt. Gov. Michael Steele enters the race.

On the Republican side, incumbent Sens. Conrad Burns (Mont.) and George Allen (Va.) could face tough battles. But Allen's seat may be competitive only if Democratic Gov. Mark Warner decides to challenge him.

Indepedent Sen. James M. Jeffords (Vt.), who was once a Republican but now votes with Democrats, is retiring. Left-leaning independent Rep. Bernard Sanders (Vt.) is among the most prominent of the candidates so far who have announced their intentions to run for the open seat. It's still uncertain how the Republican and Democratic parties will make their play for the seat.

On average, the sitting president's party has lost six Senate seats in the mid-term election of a second term. But Bill Clinton defied that trend as recently as 1998, when Democrats broke even.

"I'm not going to say we're going to win back the Senate but we feel pretty confident about picking up seats," Singer said. "With [House Majority Leader Tom] DeLay's issues, and [lobbyist Jack] Abramoff, and Social Security, there's a general discontent about the way Republicans are running Congress, and we're waiting for a wave to emerge."

Nick refused to offer a prediction, but said that the Democrats were in disarray and that they had moved to the left.

The House