As the County Grows, Demographics Change

Prince William County's population will continue to explode, and the community that was once a sparsely occupied, rural outpost of metropolitan Washington could have a population of 415,300 in five years and 531,000 by 2030, according to new estimates released Friday.

County demographer Jill Allmon is scheduled to present the report and discuss its findings with the Board of County Supervisors on Tuesday. In an interview, she said she used land use plans and past trends from county, federal and regional sources to come up with the forecasts.

The data show that the county's population was 352,482 on April 1, nearly 20,000 more than the most current U.S. Census estimate of 332,555. It was just 15 years ago that the county had 215,686 people, according to the census.

Prince William is struggling to keep up with the need for schools, roads, housing, public transportation and community services to meet the demand of the rising population, said Sean T. Connaughton (R), board chairman.

Public policy on building high-rises, affordable homes and roads will have to adjust to meet the population boom and changing demographics, he said. "By the end of this decade, non-Hispanic whites will no longer be the majority," he said, referring to the group's estimated dip to 48 percent of the population by 2010. "The county is growing larger and more diverse (in race and ethnicity) at a much quicker pace that we expected. We are also wealthier and more educated."

"In the next two or three years, we are going to make decisions that will define this community for the next generation," he said.

In the future, the biggest surge will be in the Hispanic community, which now makes up nearly 16 percent of the population and will rise to slightly more than 21 percent by 2010, the report shows. They will outnumber African Americans, currently the largest minority group in the county and hovering around 20 percent of the population. Between 1990 and 2000, the Hispanic population rose by 183 percent while the African American population increased by 110 percent.

The influx of Hispanics has boosted ethnic businesses and smaller shops and restaurants catering to Mexicans, Peruvians and Salvadorans in Woodbridge and Manassas. Those are the two areas where Hispanics are clustering.

The population boom also has caused conflict, brought to public attention in the fall when two dozen day laborers, all Latino men, were arrested and charged with loitering in two sweeps of a 7-Eleven parking lot on Route 1 after complaints from residents and nearby businesses.

A community task force, brought together by Supervisor Hilda M. Barg (D-Woodbridge), has proposed creating a work center, where day laborers could convene and wait for work each day, but the Board of County Supervisors has not discussed the proposal yet.

Carlos Castro, owner of Todos Supermarket and a member of the task force, said he does not believe the board will ever discuss the center. "They are treating it like a real bad thing," he said. "I think it will go away, unfortunately."

The county has addressed the surge in other ways.